Horse racing: Yahoo Sport UK’s Cheltenham Festival 2016 preview – Thursday’s top tips

Yahoo Sport UK has teamed up with the experts at Bet4Causes to bring you a preview of the day’s British racing – and The Night Hawk marks your card.

Over the next two days, we will bring you the analysis of every Cheltenham Festival race, including today’s feature, the World Hurdle.

1.30 JLT NOVICES’ CHASE (GRADE 1)

2m 3f 198y

FORECAST: Garde La Victoire (7/2), Bristol De Mai (4/1), Outlander (4/1), Black Hercules (5/1), L'Ami Serge (7/1), Three Musketeers (10/1), Zabana (10/1), King’s Odyssey (16/1), As De Mee (25/1), Mount Gunnery (100/1)

ANALYSIS: All five of the previous winners of this race won on their previous outing and four of them were Irish-trained. This looks a strong and competitive renewal.

Outlander represents the all-conquering Willie Mullins team. He has won his last three starts and there was plenty to like about the way he beat Monksland in a Grade 1 at Leopardstwon last month. He had Zabana in behind. The eight-year-old held several entries this week, but Mullins has been spot on in his placement, as we saw with Yorkhill landing the Neptune yesterday.

Stablemate Black Hercules runs in the same Yorkhill colours of owner Graham Wylie and although he won at Warwick in January, he fell at Navan last time having tanked through the race. The drying ground could be a concern and he may lack the speed for this.

Garde La Victoire has won four on the spin and handled these fences when scoring from Tuesday’s Arkle third Fox Norton in November. He followed up, conceding 10lb to his rivals at Ludlow, but was far from impressive in heavy ground that he hated. He has a decent chance in an open race.

L’Ami Serge was very disappointing when beaten by Violet Dancer at Warwick last month. His fencing was below-par for no apparent reason. It could be that the drop to two miles put more pressure on his usually assured jumping and he has a bit more to prove now. The ground may be turning against him, too. As De Mee also looks to need softer ground.

Three Musketeers was put in his place by Seeyouatmidnight here on New Year’s Day, which was disappointing. He had previously won a decent Grade 2 at Newbury and connection think highly of him. If any horse could cause a shock, it could be Dan Skelton’s runner.

But preference is for the Nigel Twiston-Davies-trained BRISTOL DE MAI. Though beaten by Garde La Victoire at Uttoxeter in October in receipt of 9lb, that was on his chasing debut. Among last season’s leading juvenile hurdlers (he won a Grade 1 at Chepstow), the selection (pictured below) has learned plenty over fences since and has won his last three. His Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase win is solid form and the yard had a winner here yesterday.

WINNER: BRISTOL DE MAI

EACH-WAY THREE MUSKETEERS

2.10 PERTEMPS NETWORK FINAL
(LISTED HANDICAP HURDLE)

2m 7f 213y

FORECAST: Leave At Dawn (6/1), Cup Final (8/1), Our Kaempfer (8/1), Arpege D'alene (10/1), If In Doubt (10/1), Missed Approach (10/1), Box Office (12/1), Oscar Sam (14/1), Taglietelle (14/1), Mall Dini (16/1), Saddlers Encore (16/1), Warriors Tale (16/1), Broxbourne (20/1), Join The Clan (20/1), Westren Warrior (20/1), Flintham (25/1), Rathpatrick (25/1), Un Ace (25/1), All Hell Let Loose (33/1), Dubawi Island (33/1), Kilfinichen Bay (33/1), Padge (33/1), Rolling Maul (33/1), Ruacana (33/1)

ANALYSIS: Up until 2013, low-weight horses set the trend, with this lottery yielding winners carrying no more than 10-11. But in the last three renewals, the winners have shoulders 11-4, 11-12 and 10-12 respectively. There have been just two winning favourites in the last 13 years. Though the last two winners were well backed, the previous 10 all started at double-figure SPs.

Warriors Tale was behind Cup Final but in front of Taglietelle at Musselburgh and Paul Nicholls’ runner may be able to reverse that form on the revised weights.

Likewise, Rathpack had Oscar Sam and Mall Dini in behind at Punchestown at the end of January but Oscar Sam is weighted to come out on top today.

Leave At Dawn has winning form over this track, having landed the odds in an intermediate handicap hurdle in November, but the form has not been truly franked and he got bogged down in the mud wen fifth at Leopardstown in December, with Mall Dini a place in front. He wears a first-time hood which could have a galvanising effect.

Box Office was seventh in the Fred Winter last year and has flattered to deceive since, although Jonjo O’Neill’s runner will surely be supported on the strength of his close-up Sandown fourth to Simply A Legend in early December. The ground is turning in his favour. Stablemate John The Clan was touched off by Saddlers Encore in a Grade 3 at Sandown last month, having previously had a spin over fences and can be considered.

Our Kaempfer was beaten by Broxbourne at Aintree in November but is 5lb better off today and was running a big race when brought down at Haydock a couple of weeks later. Carlie Longsdon’s runner holds a decent chance and his other runner, the progressive Kilfinchen Bay, saw a four-race winning streak come to an end here in October. He has not been seen since, so fitness must be taken in trust.

MISSED APPROACH, Arpege D’alene, If In Doubt and Flintham are all recent winners and are near the top of the handicap. The former is the least exposed, having had just five starts. The last of those came at Newbury in November when he scored by 12 lengths on his handicap debut. His rating has shot up 20lb for that, but Warren Greatrex’s runner could still be a handicap blot.

WINNER: MISSED APPROACH

EACH-WAY: OUR KAEMPFER

2.50 RYANAIR CHASE (GRADE 1)

2m 5f

FORECAST: Vautour (8/11), Road To Riches (7/1), Valseur Lido (8/1), Al Ferof (12/1), Josses Hill (16/1), Smashing (16/1), Taquin Du Seuil (16/1), Village Vic (20/1), Dynaste (25/1), Vibrato Valtat (25/1), Annacotty (33/1), Gilgamboa (33/1), Champagne West (50/1), Captain Conan (66/1), Oscar Rock (66/1)

ANALYSIS: A high-class renewal of the race that bridges the distances of the Champion Chase and the Gold Cup. The favourite has either won or been placed in six of the last seven years and eight of the last 10 winners started at 6/1 or shorter. Ten of the last 11 winners had won previously at Cheltenham (and eight runners-up). The last 11 winners had a prep race between 25 and 76 days beforehand. Those horses who have run in the King George also have a fair record with five of the last seven winners previously having a run in the Kempton Christmas showpiece.

This race has not been kind to the Irish, but the late decision to run VAUTOUR (pictured above) in this, rather than the Gold Cup, may finally give those across the Irish Sea their first win in the Grade 1 event. He ticks plenty of stats boxes, having won here before (took the JLT last year) and was collared close home by Cue Card in the King George, having stepped up to 3m. Stablemate Valseur Lido was beaten 12-lengths by Gold Cup hope Djakadam at Punchestwon in early December, but has failed to complete in his last two starts, so has a bit to prove.

Al Ferof was 13 lengths behind Cue Card and Vatour at Kempton, having previously sauntered to a 40-length win in the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon just 20 days earlier. That was his first run in eight months and he may just have felt his exertions in holding ground at Kempton. Dan Skelton’s runner may get a lot closer today and rates a big danger.

A proven Grade 1 performer, Road To Riches was third in last year’s Gold Cup, so holds obvious claims. He won a Grade 2 over this trip at Clonmel in November, before being upped in trip to be second in the Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown last month.

With Jonjo O’Neill’s stable now finding its form, Taquin Du Seuil, who scored at Warwick last month on his first start since the 2015 Festival, looks a potential player. He won the JLT here two years ago and you can see his price collapsing.

Both Village Vic and Annacotty like this course, but look outclassed in this company, and 2104 winner Dynaste has not been able to replicate his best form recently and is readily passed over.

WINNER: VAUTOUR

EACH-WAY: TAQUIN DE SEUIL

3.30 RYANAIR WORLD HURDLE (GRADE 1)

2m 7f 213y

FORECAST: Thistlecrack (Evs), Alpha Des Obeaux (11/2), Cole Harden (7/1), Saphir Du Rheu (8/1), Aux Ptits Soins (14/1), Whisper (14/1), Kilcooley (16/1), Martello Tower (20/1), At Fishers Cross (25/1), Bobs Worth (33/1), Lieutenant Colonel (33/1), Un Temps Pour Tout (33/1), Knockara Beau (100/1)

ANALYSIS: Eleven of the last 13 winners of this championship race for staying hurdlers came from the first three in the betting market, with five favourites successful since 2003. No fewer than 18 of the last 22 winners ran at the previous year’s Festival and 10 of the last 12 winners won last time out.

Thistlecrack (pictured above) won a Grade 1 staying event at Aintree last year and has held all before him in the staying division this season. He made a successful reappearance at Newbury, beating last year’s winner COLE HARDEN in soft ground at Newbury, then produced a deeply impressive performance in beating Reve De Sivola, breaking his duck at the top level, at Ascot. He sauntered to a hat-trick in the Cleve Hurdle here in January, scoring by 12 lengths and answering questions about his ability to handle the track (he flopped at the Festival as a novice last year).

While Thistlecrack looks bomb-proof, the selection was having his first run of the season at Newbury and would not have appreciated the ground. The ground was also an issue when beaten by Camping Ground and Lil Rockerfeller (who both ran in the Champion Hurdle) when third here on New Year’s Day. That was over an inadequate trip and Warren Greatrex’s runner is sure to make a spirited defence of his title on this drying ground.

Saphir Du Rheu was fifth and beaten 21 lengths by Thistlecrack at Ascot, having finished in the same position over fences in the Hennessy Gold Cup previously, but was favourite when second for this race last year (At Fishers Cross fourth, Whisper fifth and Un Temps Pour Tout – a winner here over fences on Tuesday – sixth). Drying ground could see him competitive again.

Alpha Des Obeaux was on the heels of Thistlecrack at Aintree last season and had At Fishers Cross and Martello Tower behind at Gowran. He looks a major player.

WINNER: COLE HARDEN

EACH-WAY: ALPHA DES OBEAUX

4.10 BROWN ADVISORY & MERRIEBELLE
STABLE PLATE HANDICAP CHASE (GRADE 3)

2m 4f 166y

FORECAST: Johns Spirit (11/2), Fingal Bay (8/1), Stilletto (10/1), Art Mauresque (12/1), Empire Of Dirt (12/1), Full Shift (12/1), Ballycasey (14/1), Kings Palace (14/1), La Vaticane (14/1), Buckers Bridge (16/1), Salubrious (16/1), Tenor Nivernais (16/1), Ballynagour (20/1), Dare Me (20/1), Darna (20/1), Little Jon (20/1), Niceonefrankie (20/1), Sew On Target (20/1), Baily Green (25/1), Tango De Juilley (25/1), Bear’s Affair (33/1), Kings Lad (33/1), Astracad (50/1), Quincy Des Pictons (50/1)

ANALYSIS: In the last 25 years, the winner has been priced 20/1 or bigger no fewer than 14 times. The key trend could be that 26 of the last 28 winners had an official rating no higher than 141.

The Pipe stable has won this three times in the last six years and they rely on a trio. Ballynagour has been running over further and is still 17lbs above his last winning handicap mark, but has failed to finish his last two races. This looks a prep for the Grand National.

Kings Palace has disappointed at the last two Festivals and pulling up in the Pertemps qualifier at Chepstow, but has stable jockey Tom Scudamore aboard. The mare La Vaticane is more interesting. She won at Wincanton in first time blinkers and the 5lbs penalty she receives for winning gets her into the race off a low eight and a mark of 133. She has been favourite in three of her four appearances over fences in this country, but won a soft race at Wincanton last time.

Former Paddy Power Gold Cup winner John’s Spirit has been dropping down the weights and is 11lbs lower than when he was grabbed close home in last season’s Paddy Power. He looks supremely well handicapped.

Venetia Williams has had winners of 12/1, 33/1 and 50/1 in this race in the last nine years. She relies on Niceonefrankie and Dare Me. The former is a C&D winner and has only had two outings this term. Badly hampered at Newbury in November, he was subsequently pulling up at Warwick. He runs off a 2lb lower mark than when winning at Cheltenham last December, likes to race up with the pace and that style definitely suits this handicap.

FULL SHIFT has a nice weight near the foot of the handicap and is best judged on his win at Kempton on Boxing Day rather than when pulled up in holding ground at Musselburgh subsequently. Drying ground will help.

Fingal Bay has only once won over fences, but invariably makes his presence felt in similar company. He may find one or two too good again.

WINNER: FULL SHIFT

EACH-WAY: NICEONEFRANKIE

4.50 TRULL HOUSE STUD
MARES’ NOVICES’ HURDLE (GRADE 2)

2m 179y

FORECAST: Limini (8/11), Smart Talk (6/1), Bloody Mary (10/1), Chocca Wocca (12/1), Robins Reef (16/1), Tea In Transvaal (16/1), Awesome Rosie (25/1), Girly Girl (25/1), Tara Flow (25/1), Whistle Dixie (25/1), Actinpieces (33/1), Bantam (33/1), Danielle’s Journey (33/1), Dusky Legend (33/1), Jaune Et Bleue (33/1), Water Sprite (50/1), Why Wait (50/1)

ANALYSIS: A new race for the Festival and it is good to see the BHA enhancing the programme for mares. It provides further incentive for owners and trainers to own mares and keep them in training.

This does look another race that the Willie Mullins (pictured above) team can dominate, however. He relies on LIMINI, who won a maiden hurdle at Punchestown last May (the third home, Ballyoisin, destroyed his field at Navan subsequently) and scored in Group 3 company at Fairyhouse on her return to action in January, beating previous winners Cashelard Lady, Whistle Dixie and Ten Times Better. She has a big engine and at the age of five, would appear to have a bright future.

Bloody Mary has been a prolific winner in France and opened her account for the Nicky Henderson team when scoring readily at Taunton last month. She is not the biggest but she looks to have fighting qualities.

Stablemate Chocca Wocca was runner-up in a Listed Aintree bumper last April and was a bit keen on her return at Market Rasen three weeks ago, but quickened away from Awesome Rosie, and while she could have done with another run, the drying ground will help her. The latter-named was not beaten far and she got going late. There may well be improvement from Alan King’s runner.

Prolific winner Smart Talk landed a Grade 2 Doncaster mares’ hurdle for Brian Ellison in January and the big, front-running mare has plenty of stamina. She will be running on when others have cried enough and rates as a big danger to the selection.

WINNER: LIMINI

EACH-WAY: AWESOME ROSIE

5.30 FULKE WALWYN KIM MUIR
CHALLENGE CUP HANDICAP CHASE

3m 2f

FORECAST: Doctor Harper (5/1), Cause Of Causes (11/2), Upswing (7/1), Sambremont (10/1), The Giant Bolster (10/1), Silvergrove (12/1), Indian Castle (16/1), Midnight Prayer (16/1), Perfect Candidate (16/1), The Job Is Right (16/1), Top Wood (16/1), A Good Skin (20/1), Ericht (20/1), Knock House (20/1), Alternatif (25/1), Amigo (25/1), Corrin Wood (25/1), Grandads Horse (25/1), Lost Legend (25/1), Splash of Ginge (25/1), Capard King (33/1), Mon Parrain (33/1), Waldorf Salad (33/1), Your Busy (50/1)

ANALYSIS: Another difficult puzzle to solve, but the stats tell us that 10 of the last 13 winners of this amateur riders’ handicap were won by horses aged eight or over, and six of the last seven winners were rated between 137 and 142. The last seven winners carried at least 11-4 and five of the last six winners came from the first four in the betting.

Doctor Harper heads the market and ticks all the above boxes. David Pipe’s runner scored at Leicester last time, having acquitted himself well against smart sorts in Garde La Victoire and L’ami Serge on his first two starts over fences. He is respected.

Upswing was a good second to Sausalito Sunrise here in November but did not have a hard race in deep ground when pulled up in the Welsh National at Chepstow last time. He has scored over fences – in a novice handicap chase at Worcester last October. Ideally he would like a bit of cut in the ground.

Cause Of Causes landed the National Hunt Chase here last year before finishing eighth in the Grand National, but has not been in anything like the same form this winter. This is an Irish National prep in all probability.

THE GIANT BOLSTER (above, left) won the Argento Chase here two years ago and was beaten less than a length in Lord Windermere’s Gold Cup soon after. While age is against him (now an 11yo), he likes Cheltenham, and while beaten a long way by Houblon Des Obeaux at Newbury last time, the ground would have been against him. He is a classy performer on his day.

Sambremont won the Grade 2 Flyingbolt Novice Chase at Navan over a 2m4f trip that was patently inadequate. He jumps soundly and travels strongly, hails from the in-form Willie Mullins yard, so must go on the shortlist.

WINNER: THE GIANT BOLSTER

EACH-WAY: SAMBREMONT

OTHER MEETINGS:

HEXHAM: 1.55 Beyond Temptation, 2.35 My Little Cracker, 3.15 Joseph Mercer, 3.55 Kilmainham, 4.35 Son Of Suzie, 5.10 Treliver Manor, 5.40 Leading Score

TOWCESTER: 1.15 Lemtara Bay, 1.45 Spirit Of Shankly, 2.25 Lettheriverrundry, 3.05 Tanner Hill, 3.45 L Frank Baum, 4.25 Gentle Duke, 5.00 Storm Alert

CHELMSFORD CITY: 5.50 Anjuna Beach, 6.20 Slovak, 6.50 Sandfrankskipsgo, 7.20 Stosur, 7.50 Air Of Astana, 8.20 Saved My Bacon, 8.50 Seraphima

DOWN ROYAL: 2.00 Cappuccino Man, 2.40 Ard Cregg, 3.20 Colms Dream, 4.00 Dr Moloney, 4.40 Fine Rightly, 5.15 Hasty Times, 5.45 Kally’s Taken

WEXFORD: 2.20 Alterno, 3.00 First Post, 3.40 Head Turner, 4.20 Credo Star, 4.55 Mount Colah, 5.25 Westerner Point, 5.55 A Rated

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