Japanese GP betting guide: Frustrated Hamilton can get back on track in tense title race

Lewis Hamilton knows full well that this weekend’s race at Suzuka represents his best chance at taking a big chunk out of Nico Rosberg’s 23-point lead in the 2016 drivers’ championship.

Heavy rain showers are predicted this weekend, which would mean all bets are off for qualifying and/or the race on Sunday.

As we’ve seen countless times down the years, once erratic weather patterns come into play the paddock often loses its head with only the most savvy and steely of teams and drivers winning out.

Hamilton has such an abundance of natural talent that should the rain fall at crucial junctures, he can coax his car to victory.

Meanwhile, Rosberg is never comfortable sitting on a title lead as we have seen these past couple of years - even more so when his three-time world champion team-mate is driving angry behind him.

The Briton’s comments after his Malaysian GP engine failure alluded to Rosberg’s rather fortunate reliability compared to his own, the German’s German owners diplomatically sitting on the fence again.

Rosberg may have got the better of Hamilton in Friday free practice, however the smart money still lies with Hamilton at crunch time.

What if the two Mercedes drivers tangle like they have before in pressure cooker situations?

Daniel Ricciardo and Max Verstappen wrapped up a superb 1-2 last time out at Sepang for Red Bull, the Australian’s win extremely popular at the track and with fans worldwide to boot.

You get the feeling it is the Dutchman that could pose the biggest threat this weekend, though. He may have only just turned 19, but his failure to get past Ricciardo last weekend will have instilled an even greater will to win.

What with Sebastian Vettel’s superb record here in Japan - his four wins only bettered by Michael Schumacher’s six - you would be churlish to count the Ferrari man out despite his grid penalty, especially at 20/1 and rain forecasted.

Kimi Raikkonen also won here back in 2005 and seems a rejuvenated man for the Tifosi, so a best price 25/1 seems too good to pass up into the bargain after a promising Friday session.

Outside of that, should the customary top six take each other out in whatever permutation of racing incident or foul weather then Force India and Williams will be lurking with intent.

As for former world champions Fernando Alonso and wet weather king Jenson Button, very few would begrudge them victory after the rank average cars McLaren have produced for them - albeit at very long odds.

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