LaLiga: Are the wheels coming off at Valencia or it simply a case of bad luck?

Managing a football club can often be a thankless task. What you achieve over the course of a career turns irrelevant if you encounter a run of poor form. Short-termism was a concept people frowned up during Sir Alex Ferguson’s reign at Manchester United.

However the reality seems to be that Ferguson was the exception to what works rather than the blueprint to success. With the money in the game there’s no room for sentiment. Win or face the sack, it couldn’t be any simpler. No greater example of how quickly things can change is at Valencia.

After an incredible six months under Marcelino, there are sections of the fan base which seem to have been visited by men in black suits carrying silver pens. You know, the ones which occasionally produce a blinding flash and cause memory loss. How else do you ignore their flirtation with relegation last season to suddenly feeling you have the divine right to beat all the big teams six months later? When you raise expectations, the euphoria can sometimes blur the lines of reality.

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Now it’s important not to generalise a particular fan base. Each group, each section is different. We saw during Valencia’s previous two campaigns a lot of the blame was attributed to their ‘demanding’ fans. As if they were somehow responsible for their owner appointing unproven, untested individuals and expecting things to go swimmingly. Or that they were culpable for the disastrous recruitment which saw them overspend on players, sell the few good ones and even now have their hands tied by financial restrictions. No, it wasn’t the fans’ fault.

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You could even argue that a coach deserves to be under pressure if they raise the bar during their tenure. If you prove that a side can compete, and the coach is rightly praised, then they should receive criticism when that standard drops. The losses to Barcelona, Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid all hurt but it was the manor in which the team set up that disappointed supporters. Are they right to demand a more adventurous approach or should they leave the tactics to the coach who’s giving them hope of a brighter future?

There are, however, a few factors to consider when you look at Valencia’s recent form. It isn’t a simple suggestion of Marcelino throwing in the towel or being afraid to challenge the elite teams. It’s unfortunately a combination of things, of all which are happening at the same time, and this is affecting their overall performance.

A thin squad makes Guedes’ absence a hammer blow

You can’t undervalue the importance of Goncalo Guedes to this team. The young Portuguese winger is desperate to prove his doubters in Paris wrong and he continues to do that. It appears with each passing week his value increases by another couple of million. A true success story for Valencia, even if that very success pushes him further from their grasp. With him, Valencia are formidable.

The problems start when he isn’t available. That isn’t to say the players behind him in the pecking order are bad, far from it, but each team tends to have one truly special player. That’s Guedes for Valencia. He isn’t just a good winger but a player who is capable of bursting beyond the opponent’s defensive line or produce a fantastic cross to the frontmen. Guedes’ raw ability and sky high confidence makes him irreplaceable in the current XI.

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Sometimes the fear factor Guedes carries with him allows other players in the team more space as a result. Dani Parejo and Carlos Soler are intelligent, forward-thinking midfielders. They are capable of producing passes of the same quality as Guedes but if teams are focused on doubling-down on the PSG loanee, it frees up time and space for them.

Where are all the goals?

At the start of the season the competition for a place in the XI saw everyone raise their game. As is the case when a new coach comes in, it’s a clean slate for those already at the club. Simone Zaza, Rodrigo Moreno and Santi Mina are all good enough to lead the line in LaLiga. Marcelino prefers a 4-4-2, which gives two of the three a spot but one would ultimately miss out. All three raised the bar and were scoring for fun, regardless of which combination the coach chose.

However in recent weeks those goals are beginning to dry up and it’s causing them to drop points in tight games.

Zaza’s last goal was back in December against Celta Vigo. That’s nearly two months ago. The fiery Italian is trying to manage a knee injury but isn’t producing the goods on a regular basis anymore. That isn’t to say his work rate and performances are poor but a striker is ultimately judged on how often they find the back of the net. Right now, he isn’t doing that.

Rodrigo is a fan favourite after a sticky start to life in Valencia but he too is seeing his goal return diminish drastically. He only has one league goal in his last nine matches, a far cry from the standard which saw him earn a Spain recall. Similarly to his Italian strike partner, he’s doing well, but really needs to get back on the scoresheet.

With the previous two struggling in recent weeks we’re seeing Mina emerge as the most reliable option up front. He has two goals in his last three matches and his pace causes the opposition problems. He’s unable to lead the line by himself though so needs somebody to step up and give him a hand in the final third.

Struggling

The new addition in January was Luciano Vietto. An old acquaintance of Marcelino and one he knows well from his time at Villarreal. The Argentinian striker couldn’t have asked for a better start to his career at Valencia when he put three past Las Palmas in the Copa del Rey. Unfortunately that was the first and last time he saw his name appear on the scoreboard. With others struggling for goals, Vietto really needs to prove he’s worth buying in the summer.

Without Murillo, Valencia’s defence is struggling

Anybody who watched Valencia last season knew they needed to overhaul their backline. A new goalkeeper and three centre backs were added to the squad in the summer. Neto was the man chosen to replace Diego Alves and he’s been fantastic. Ruben Vezo didn’t have the best of times on loan at Granada but then again, no one did. He’s a good backup option. Gabriel Paulista’s injury problems meant Arsenal were happy to let him go too. But the most important addition was Jeison Murllio.

The Inter Milan defender didn’t receive much fanfare when his transfer was announced. Perhaps the expectations were more on Ezequiel Garay to step up and showcase his experience. But it’s Murillo who is proving to be the glue which holds Valencia together. He’s one of those players which immediately makes everyone around him look better. If Guedes is the cutting edge in attack, Murillo is the rock in defence.

Prior to the Colombian’s injury Valencia were unbeaten and had kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches (6 out of 12). Since he needed to go under the knife there’s been a dramatic downturn in Valencia’s defensive stability. Los Che have lost six of their ten league matches without Murillo and are yet to record a single clean sheet in that time either. His return can’t come soon enough.

A tough run of fixtures

And the final reason for the drop in form is simply having a difficult schedule in a short period of time. Six losses in their last ten isn’t good enough for a side with top four ambitions. Yet, with the exception of Las Palmas, none of those losses were to ‘poor’ teams.

Villarreal and Eibar are two of the in-form sides of LaLiga right now and narrow defeats can happen. In Valencia’s last three fixtures, against arguably the best three sides in Spain, they lost two by a single goal. Both of those were away from home. Even the 4-1 defeat at the hands of Real Madrid was a flattering scoreline for what was largely an even affair.

In amongst these defeats it’s worth remembering the team is still in with a chance of lifting the Copa del Rey. A 1-0 loss to Barcelona in the first leg means all’s to play for at the Mestalla on Wednesday.

When your squad is thin and key injuries happen at the same time, you need to tweak the tactics. Coming up against the strongest sides and those in a rich vein of form is unfortunate but not a sign of a decline either. The fixture list is noticeably easier in the next couple of months and this could see Valencia regain their momentum.

Los Che are in a good place and it’s important people don’t lose perspective of how far they’ve come under Marcelino. When the coach has a full squad at his disposal the attacking intent will return once again. It’s a marathon, not a sprint.