Liam Dawson surprised by England call but Keaton Jennings can stake claim

Hampshire all-rounder admits shock at being drafted into squad while Durham opener will go straight into side to face India in the fourth Test

There is a mountain for England to climb whatever the formbook might say. Recent history suggests they have a better chance of winning here than anywhere else in India since they have been victorious in their past two Tests at the Wankhede Stadium.

In 2012, they won by 10 wickets after Kevin Pietersen had played one of the innings of the decade, 186 from 233 balls, during which he overwhelmed Ravi Ashwin on a turning track; meanwhile Alastair Cook hit 122, a knock that was merely excellent. In 2006, England won by 212 runs after Rahul Dravid had inserted Andrew Flintoff’s side – Owais Shah made a fine Test debut and Shaun Udal polished off the second India innings with figures of four for 14.

Oddly enough India have not played a Test here for three years, when West Indies were thrashed, but will be remembered more for Sachin Tendulkar’s last appearance for his country. But we know what to expect. The Wankhede Stadium usually provides an interesting surface. On vibrant red soil the ball bounces more than elsewhere in India, which can offer some solace to quicker bowlers; but if the ball turns it does so more quickly than we have witnessed in Rajkot, Visakhapatnam or Mohali.

It may be time for the agonising over the best balance of the England side to stop. In the first three Tests they decided to play three spinners alongside three pacemen. This was understandable; stare at the surfaces at the previous venues and they have looked drier than the wit of Jack Dee, yet one can now conclude, “I’m sorry. They hadn’t a clue”. This would be a harsh judgment since many onlookers, including this one, were seduced by the prospect of three spinners on such arid looking patches of turf.

By their own admission this was a mistake by the team management – for two increasingly obvious reasons. England’s third spinner has been of poor quality and how did we allow ourselves to forget that Indian batsmen tend to be so much better against spin than pace? Whatever the think-tank sees when they inspect the pitch on Tuesday, surely they will change the balance of the team.

On Monday, Hampshire’s Liam Dawson arrives in Mumbai from Bangladesh as a replacement for Zafar Ansari. He has been playing in the T20 tournament for the Rangpur Riders. From there Dawson had the good grace to echo the reaction of your correspondent to his call-up. “I was very surprised. I didn’t expect it all”, he said before adding, “but it’s a great opportunity and very exciting.”

Dawson is a plucky character, who will probably be an important member of the ODI squad after Christmas. He’s a combative cricketer and a fine fielder, which impresses the head coach, Trevor Bayliss; he is, however, essentially a batsman who bowls. No doubt he would love to play in Mumbai – and clearly his attitude has impressed those in charge of the Lions – but he seems suitably realistic about what he can offer.

Related: Call-ups for Keaton Jennings and Liam Dawson highlight England’s misreadings | Vic Marks

“People see my season [in 2016] as only getting 22 wickets and say it is poor, but I did bowl well and I did give Hampshire control and that’s something hopefully I can do if I play in the Test match. That’s my job and that’s been my job for the last three years at the Ageas Bowl.”

It would be a surprise if he does play and if he is selected it is more likely to be a consequence of his ability with the bat. However, expect the other newcomer, Keaton Jennings, to be catapulted into the team as the England captain’s latest partner (even though we may have already discovered Cook’s Catharine Parr – surely Haseeb Hameed will eventually survive him).

Last season at Chester-le-Street Jennings, the son of Ray, who has been a ferociously competitive cricketer and coach in and outside of South Africa, will not have encountered many quality spin bowlers. His 1,548 Championship runs in 2016 at least hints at a meritocracy. Ashwin is likely to be introduced against this lanky left-hander within half a dozen overs.

Related: Keaton Jennings stunned by ‘whirlwind’ England call-up for India tour

Unsurprisingly, the young Jennings will arrive in a positive frame of mind – not just because of a century for the Lions against the United Arab Emirates in Dubai this week. There is quite an opportunity here. If he were to succeed on his debut, which would be a major achievement, then there are glittering prospects ahead. England might then consider playing three openers at the top of the order in July when they resume playing Test cricket with Cook, Hameed and Jennings and then Joe Root back at four; in which case the holes in the batting lineup are not so obvious.

Ideally, the paceman to be added to the team would be Stuart Broad, who missed the last Test since it is not possible to bowl fast wearing a moon boot. It is tricky to gauge Broad’s progress as he is currently several thousand miles away in Dubai along with the majority of the squad, though he has been receiving treatment from the England Lions medical staff. It would be a bonus if Broad is fit enough to play.

The more likely outcome is that he will not be available, which would mean Steven Finn or Jake Ball might be drafted into the Test team. This would be quite an undertaking for both players. Finn last bowled at a batsman outside of a net in the Dhaka Test on 29 October, Ball delivered four overs in a practice match in Chittagong on 15 October. You begin to understand why India are strong favourites?