Looking Ahead to Barcelona

Barcelona are one of the best teams in the world, they have just extended their unbeaten streak to 29 games, setting a new club record in the process, oh, and there’s the small matter of the so-called ‘MSN’ trio up front of Ballon d’Or winner Lionel Messi, Ballon d’Or runner-up Neymar, and good ol’ Luis Suarez. A week on Tuesday, Arsenal will face possibly the toughest test in European football as they try to qualify from the Champions League Round of 16 for the first time since 2009-10 after five consecutive disappointing attempts. It’s certainly going to be an interesting encounter…

Style of Play

You would expect Arsene to go with a fairly conservative setup against the Spanish giants, but we know that he is rarely one to sit back and allow teams to attack the Gunners, especially in Europe. The added complication to this tie of course is that it is over two legs, and Arsenal will probably feel that they are at a slight disadvantage playing at home first. Though the fans at the Emirates will want to see a spectacle of football on par with our illustrious opponents, conceding more than one in North London would surely leave the Gunners’ hopes of qualification looking slim, and facing the usual heartache of a closely-fought but ultimately fruitless second-leg performance.

The delicate balance then is between wanting to take a few goals back to Catalonia ourselves, giving us as much leeway there as possible, and a desire to avoid ‘doing a Monaco’ and becoming so obsessed with the individual game that we lose all sight of the wider tie. In other words, I have absolutely no idea how Arsenal will approach the match, but it will take some incredibly shrewd planning for Arsene to out-manoeuvre Barcelona, even at home.

Likely Starting XI

It’s still slightly too early to be able to predict the starting line-up with any real certainty, but barring any injuries, the side should look fairly similar to what we have seen in the league recently. Petr Cech will be in goal, with a defence including Hector Bellerin (against the team at which he spent his early years), Laurent Koscielny and Nacho Monreal, with the only real question there being who will partner Kos at centre back. Gabriel has rarely put a foot wrong in the appearances that he has been afforded this season, and also has a yard of pace over our other option, Per Mertesacker, but in such a high-stakes game, and given Per’s strong partnership with Laurent, I would expect the experienced German to be given the nod.

You would hope that by the time the 23^rd comes around, Francis Coquelin will be fit enough to take his place in midfield ahead of Mathieu Flamini, and alongside him will undoubtedly be Aaron Ramsey. Alexis (also ex-Barcelona of course) and Mesut Özil will be relied upon to run the show and make the difference as two of our attacking four, whilst Olivier Giroud will likely start up front.

The other spot on the wing is anybody’s guess; you could conceivably put Theo Walcott, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Joel Campbell, a returning Danny Welbeck or even Alex Iwobi there. Out of those options, I would be tempted to go for Campbell, given his tenacity and diligence in covering Hector behind him where needed. Danny offers similar attributes, and is probably slightly more direct, but with likely only one first team game under his belt in 10 months by that point, is likely better off as an impact sub.

Which 3 players will make the Biggest Impact

You would have to hope that Alexis will be fired up, and want to take the game to his old team and make a point to them about where Arsenal are in terms of the European powerhouses. If deployed on the left, as expected, that would place him up against either Dani Alves or Aleix Vidal, both of whom are naturally attacking right backs. That space in behind the defence could be crucial on the counter, and if he can cut in and escape the attentions of the superb Sergio Busquets, we know that Alexis is not afraid to hit a shot from long distance.

Petr Cech will also be crucial in keeping Arsenal in the tie. As we saw during our unlikely win over Bayern Munich in the group stages, it is foolish to hope that even a solid defence such as ours could prevent a significant amount of efforts on goal, meaning that our keeper may be the difference between a victory and a loss. Cech has proven time and time again this season that he remains one of the top keepers in the world at 33, and it’s also fun to remember (as I think I brought up when we were drawn against Barca) that he is yet to concede a goal to Lionel Messi.

Perhaps the third player who we will be relying on will be Francis Coquelin, if indeed he does start the game. Last season, and at the start of this, he was crucial in breaking up the opposition’s play in the centre of the park and disrupting their rhythm. There is perhaps nothing more important against a side like Barcelona than preventing them from playing their game, and if Coquelin can keep the likes of Andres Iniesta and Ivan Rakitic quiet, it may change the match’s complexion entirely.

Pressure on the Manager to go through

Normally, I’d say that Arsene is under absolutely no pressure in relation to the tie. Every Arsenal fan knows the drill by now, play poorly in the first leg and lose fairly heavily, giving ourselves just a little too much to do, ultimately falling short of qualification despite a spirited fight back in the second leg. This year, things feel different however. I don’t think that many Arsenal fans are expecting to make it through to the quarter finals, but with a stuttering effort at the league title, there is a restlessness bubbling in North London that would welcomingly receive a surprise win. Ultimately though, as long as we see no repeat of the 5-1 drubbing at the hands of Bayern, no one will attach too much importance to the final outcome.

The Champions League in context to the rest of the Season

I’ve said before that, weirdly, it might be better to get knocked out of the Champions League at this stage, as per usual, and ride our wave of determination (and reduced fixture-list) through to the end of the season. Don’t get me wrong, it would be amazing to see us become surprise contenders in Europe, but in terms of progression for this season, the league is both more realistic, and perhaps actually more symbolic. Plus, we could do with any advantage over Manchester City and Tottenham in the run in that we can get, and probably need to take Leicester’s advantage away in that respect too. That’s what I’ll be telling myself after I walk away from the Emirates considerably out of pocket and miserable after a 7-0 thumping on the 23^rd anyway.