MLB playoffs 2023: Even your best move isn't good enough to get Houston Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez out

The trouble with Yordan Alvarez, if you’re an opposing manager, is that even your best move is a terrible idea.

The Minnesota Twins got the Alvarez experience Saturday in the Houston Astros' 6-4 win in Game 1 of the ALDS, following in the footsteps of the Philadelphia Phillies, the Seattle Mariners and a host of others. Having already belted one homer, the Houston Astros’ 26-year-old designated hitter came up in the seventh inning. Suddenly invigorated by a rally off Houston’s bullpen, the Twins were within a run in a game that always appeared tipped in the Astros’ favor, given the pitching matchup.

But what to do about Alvarez?

Twins manager Rocco Baldelli called for the lefty Caleb Thielbar, a logical move to face the left-handed Alvarez. It’s a well-known and usually foolproof rule that left-handed hitters struggle against left-handed pitchers, at least compared to their performance against righties. And Thielbar has proven particularly difficult for his same-handed brethren. He has faced 254 left-handed hitters since 2020 and allowed them a measly .193 batting average with a total of four home runs.

Baldelli’s move was the right idea. Maybe the only idea. And history still hinted that it might be a very bad idea.

For all the overarching ways the Astros have come to seem inevitable during their era of six straight postseason runs to at least the ALCS, Alvarez has recently felt like the tip of the spear. And his lefty-on-lefty prowess is a big reason for that.

In last season’s ALDS Game 1, he came to bat with the Astros down two runs, facing left-handed Mariners starter Robbie Ray working in relief. Alvarez crushed a walk-off homer. In last season’s World Series Game 6, with the Astros down a run, he faced left-handed Phillies relief ace José Alvarado and clubbed a home run over the batter’s eye in center field. Houston proceeded to win the game and clinch the title.

“You'd still probably rather take your chances bringing your good lefties in there,” Baldelli said postgame, “and giving guys an opportunity to get him out.”

On Saturday, the moment wasn’t quite that big, but the result was similar. Alvarez homered; Houston prevailed. Dusty Baker, the sage Astros manager, sympathized afterward with Baldelli’s rock-and-a-hard-place problem.

“I always think something might happen with Yordan,” Baker said. “He hits lefties equally as righties. But that's a move the manager had to make. You have to bring in a lefty for Yordan, even though everybody knows he hits them pretty good.”

“Pretty good” is a monumental understatement. Not even counting his postseason exploits, Alvarez has been the best lefty-on-lefty hitter in baseball since his debut in 2019. Of the 79 hitters who have at least 250 left-on-left plate appearances in that span, only 27 have MLB-average batting lines, per the park-adjusted metric wRC+. Alvarez is first, with a 158 wRC+, and as far ahead of second-place Bryce Harper (133 wRC+) as Harper is ahead of 19th.

In fact, among hitters with at least 500 such plate appearances, Alvarez is the best left-on-left hitter of the past 20 seasons, with a .301/.382/.565 line. His most recent competition in this category is Barry Bonds. But the thing is, that’s still (slightly) worse than his line against the alternative: right-handed pitching. With the platoon advantage on his side, Alvarez is a career .292/.394/.601, for a 170 wRC+.

Baldelli said postgame that he wasn’t inclined to change his tactics after one swing, that Thielbar would likely see Alvarez and other key left-handed Astros, such as Kyle Tucker, again this series. Maybe the best bet is hoping Alvarez will, at least momentarily, conform to the norms of baseball history. Or maybe the move is to try to contain the rest of the Astros such that Alvarez can’t sink your hopes.

Alas, Alvarez's homer was just one important moment in a Game 1 that also saw Jose Altuve lead off with a loud home run and Justin Verlander find his typical postseason footing after a shaky start. Just a little more than a week after their postseason status was in doubt, Houston is back in familiar position — with an upper hand in the ALDS.

That’s the trouble with the Astros, if you’re an opposing manager. Your best idea might not be enough to get Alvarez in Game 1, and someone else will demand your best idea in Game 2.