Moving indoors during cold weather may reduce spread of coronavirus, scientist claims

Cold weather this winter could lead to a "mini-quarantine" and actually decrease rates of coronavirus, a scientist has claimed.

Although coronaviruses, unlike the influenza virus, are not seasonal, they are more likely to peak in the spring as opposed to colder winter months.

It had previously been thought a second wave of the virus could hit this winter, according to a paper by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE).

However, Dr Ben Neuman, an associate professor at the University of Reading, said the upcoming colder weather could mean people spend more time indoors, or are more likely to wear “natural PPE” such as gloves and scarves, which could lower transmission rates.

On Sunday, the UK recorded 2,988 cases of Covid-19 —the highest daily increase since May 23 — with a further two people dying from the virus.

But of expecting a second wave now, Dr Neuman said people should be watchful for behavioural changes which could cause the virus to spread.

Speaking to PA news agency he said: “The move indoors for the winter may not be likely to drive up Covid-19 numbers on its own.

“A cold winter can bring on its own mini-quarantine, as we stay home to avoid bad weather, and comes with a bit of natural PPE in the form of scarves and gloves.

“Instead, look for changes in behaviour that lead to mixing of people from different households, especially where masks would not be worn, as a potential source of Covid-19 – schools reopening, dinner parties, restaurants.”

Dr Neuman said some analysis of coronavirus relies too much on the influenza virus — which does peak in winter — but that most virus are not as seasonal as the flu, and most coronaviruses peak in spring.

Due the similarity in symptoms between Covid-19 and flu, there could be an increase in negative coronavirus tests, giving the false illusion of the virus decreasing.

He added: "A possible side-effect of flu and Covid-19 season is that since both diseases start off with similar symptoms, more people will be ill enough to seek Covid-19 testing.

“Paradoxically, an influx of people with the flu seeking Covid-19 tests could potentially drive down the percentage of positive tests, which would then misleadingly suggest that Covid-19 was decreasing.

“That is one reason why per cent positive rates should not be taken in isolation to monitor the pandemic.”

When tackling the spread of the disease — particularly in schools — Dr Julian Tang, honorary associate professor in respiratory sciences at the University of Leicester, said ventilation would play an important role but people still needed to wear face masks.

He told PA: “Anything you do to mitigate Covid-19 as an individual PPE intervention may well be the only thing you can do, because increasing ventilation – opening windows – will work in some situations.

"But a lot of indoor areas, indoor buildings, cannot ramp up ventilation very well with existing systems, and some of the windows are not openable.”

He said that he is part of a network of experts that considers it could be necessary to open windows with the heating on.

Speaking about classrooms, Dr Tang said: “What they suggest is that you have to turn on the heating with the windows open, which is a terrible waste of energy. But what that does is it creates convective flows that may actually enhance the ventilation in those classrooms.

“But again, if you’re wearing masks, to some extent this will be helpful, but you have to remove the airborne virus that may be expelled over the hours to actually make those masks work.”

According to NHS documents circulated in March and seen by The Guardian, the pandemic could continue until spring 2021.

Yesterday, Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the UK’s rising infection numbers were “concerning”, and admitted there had been a real-terms rise even after taking into account a raised testing capacity.

The UK’s coronavirus outbreak is still centred on the North West of England, with Pendle recording the most cases, at 268.8 per 100,000 people, followed by Oldham, at 199.6 per 100,000, and then Blackburn with Darwen, at 150.4 per 100,000.

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