NBA DFS and props: Our best value plays for Wednesday

It’s a massive slate of 13 NBA games for Wednesday. I love a big NBA board for the sole purpose of finding value plays. There are also some players you can spend a pretty penny on, but it’ll be worth it, then some others you can fade.

The Big Play: $39 UTA C Rudy Gobert vs. HOU

The Houston Rockets are the worst defense in the NBA, allowing an average of 116.7 points per game. In the last 10 games, that number has gone up to 123.2 ppg allowed. The Rockets also rank 21st in rebounds allowed to opponents. All that said, a man who dominates in the paint is exactly who you need against Houston. The Rockets have faced 76ers star Joel Embiid twice, Timberwolves’ big man Karl-Anthony Towns and Nuggets MVP Nikola Jokic in the last two weeks. Those three players combined for an average of 31.5 points, 10.8 rebounds and 6.5 assists. With Gobert averaging 17.9 points and 16.7 rebounds against teams bottom 10 in points allowed in the paint, Gobert is worth spending $39 on.

Props to consider

Gobert over 17.5 points

Gobert over 14.5 rebounds

Gobert over 35.5 points+rebounds+assists

Play: $28 CHA SG Terry Rozier vs. BOS

One trend I’ve been keeping an eye on has been the Boston Celtics against guards. The Celtics allow the fourth-most points per game to the position this season, especially shooting guards. Rozier has had at least 20 points in five of his last seven games. It’s also not a bad thing that Rozier is on the road because he’s averaging around 18 points at home and on the road this season. For $28, you can get a 20-plus point performance from Rozier against Boston.

Prop to consider

Rozier over 20.5 points

Value Play: $21 DET SF Hamidou Diallo vs. SAC

Pistons small forward Hamidou Diallo has been undervalued by the fantasy and betting markets. Diallo did not play more than 20 minutes a game earlier this season. However, with Jerami Grant out since Dec. 10 due to an UCL sprain in his right thumb, Diallo has seen more minutes. The small forward is averaging 15 points and 6.2 rebounds since picking up more minutes. He’s played four games against bottom 10 defenses in which he’s totaled at least 20 minutes. In those spots, Diallo averaged 24 points and 7.3 rebounds. With the Sacramento Kings allowing the third most points in the league (113.7 per game), Diallo makes for a great value play as long as he plays over 20 minutes.

Prop to consider

Diallo over 11.5 points

Diallo over 6.5 rebounds

Fade: $38 CHI PF DeMar DeRozan vs. CLE

The fade on DeMar DeRozan is more because of matchup than statistics. The Cleveland Cavaliers have been a top 10 defense all year, especially underneath and that’s where DeRozan likes to attack. DeRozan isn’t a 3-point shooter. He’s a midrange and to-the-basket player. With Cavs power forward Evan Mobley and center Jarrett Allen protecting the paint, I’m not taking the risk of paying up for an expensive player like DeMar DeRozan.