NBA Finals betting: Pick against the spread for Game 1 of the NBA Finals between the Bucks and Suns

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The NBA Finals are here. Yahoo Sports' Jared Quay has the pick you need for Game 1 between the Bucks and Suns. Odds are via BetMGM.

Milwaukee Bucks at Phoenix Suns (-6), Total: 218.5

The chances of Giannis Antetokounmpo playing in Game 1 seem pretty slim.

The Milwaukee Bucks listed their superstar as doubtful for Tuesday night’s opening game of the NBA Finals after the knee injury he suffered against the Atlanta Hawks. He's since been upgraded to questionable, though that doesn't mean he will play. Antetokounmpo didn’t play in either Game 5 or Game 6 against the Hawks and will miss his third consecutive game if he doesn’t play on Tuesday.

Antetokounmpo’s likely absence and the Suns’ home-court advantage means that Phoenix enters Game 1 as the favorite to win. The Suns are six-point favorites on Tuesday night as it looks to continue a nice run at home. Phoenix is 17-3 straight up in its last 20 home games dating back to the regular season.

Milwaukee, meanwhile, is 1-6 against the spread against Phoenix in its last seven games against the Suns. The teams played twice during the 2020-21 regular season and each game was separated by a point. Phoenix won 125-124 at home on Feb. 10 and then won 128-127 in overtime in Milwaukee on April 19.

Giannis played in both of those games. Without him on the court, oddsmakers clearly think Phoenix has a bigger edge. And so does Yahoo Sports' Jared Quay. 

Quay said he likes the over in this game — it’s ticked up a point as of Tuesday morning — and also likes the Suns. He’s been an early backer of the Suns and isn’t shying away from them now.

“I told you back in December when the season was starting early,” Quay said.

Prop bet we like: Chris Paul over 20.5 points

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