NFL betting recap: Atlanta Falcons are the only team left that's perfect against the spread

Entering Week 4 of the NFL season, the Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions and Atlanta Falcons were the only three teams with a perfect 3-0 record against the spread. With Week 4 set to wrap up on Monday night, we're down to just one perfect team remaining.

The Dolphins lost by 12 to the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday night, and in the process failed to cover as a 3.5-point road underdog. Detroit entered its matchup against the Seattle Seahawks banged up. DeAndre Swift, Amon-Ra St. Brown and D.J. Chark all missed the game. However, the Lions still entered the game as 3.5-point home favorites. Seattle ended up winning the wild game outright by a score of 48-45.

Atlanta opened the week as a 3-point home underdog against the Cleveland Browns. By kickoff, that line was down to just 1 point despite the fact that 71% of bets and 85% of the money was backing the Browns. The suspicious line movement and betting splits ended up being foreshadowing.

The Falcons came out to a 10-0 lead in the first quarter, powered by a Cordarrelle Patterson rushing touchdown. However, the Browns evened the score at 10 before halftime thanks to a Jacoby Brissett rushing touchdown and Cade York field goal.

Nick Chubb gave the Browns a 20-17 lead with under 10 minutes left, scoring on the ground from 28 yards out. The Falcons answered with a Younghoe Koo field goal on their next drive to tie the game. The Falcons forced a Browns punt with under four minutes left to give themselves a chance to go down the field and take a lead.

The Falcons did just that. The big play was a 42-yard completion to Olamide Zaccheaus that then had 15-yards added on thanks to a facemask penalty.

The drive resulted in a successful 45-yard kick from Koo to give the Falcons a 23-20 lead with 2:33 remaining. Cleveland had the ball and a chance to tie or take the lead. However, the defense bowed up for the Falcons. With the Browns on the Falcons side of the field and already in borderline field goal range, Grady Jarrett came up with a big sack. Then, on third-and-23, Dee Alford stepped in front of David Bell to secure a game-winning interception.

The Falcons are just 2-2 on the season overall, but they've been a lot more competitive than many expected entering the season. That's backed up by their perfect 4-0 record against the spread. They almost beat New Orleans in Week 1, blowing a massive lead. In Week 2, they gave the Rams a scare. Now, they've won outright in back-to-back weeks as a short underdog.

The Falcons will look to continue their perfect season against the spread next week against Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Currently, Atlanta is an 8-point underdog at BetMGM.

Underdogs continue sizzling start to the season

Through the first three weeks of the NFL season, underdogs went 28-18-2 against the spread. That's a cover rate of nearly 61%. The hot start for underdogs has continued into Week 4, as underdogs have gone 9-6 against the spread, with six of those underdogs winning their game outright.

The most impressive performance by an underdog probably came on Sunday night, where Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs dominated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from wire-to-wire. Sure, the Chiefs got some fortunate field position when the Buccaneers fumbled the opening kickoff and then Tom Brady fumbled at his own 20-yard line later in the first half. But the game never was particularly close. Patrick Mahomes is now 7-0-1 as a betting underdog in his career.

Elsewhere, Zach Wilson returned for the Jets and led two fourth-quarter touchdown drives to get them an outright victory as a 3.5-point underdog in Pittsburgh. Breece Hall extended the ball over the plane of the goal line with under 20 seconds left to put the Jets up for good. For the Steelers, Kenny Pickett was inserted into the game, replacing Mitch Trubisky. Pickett threw three interceptions in his NFL debut. Two of those interceptions bounced off the hands of Steelers receivers.

The Titans went on the road and beat the Indianapolis Colts as 4-point underdog as Derrick Henry looked like his old self, running for 114 yards. Ryan Tannehill was extremely efficient, throwing just four incompletions. Elsewhere, the Arizona Cardinals went on the road and beat the Carolina Panthers as a 1-point underdog. Baker Mayfield has not eclipsed 200 passing yards since Week 1 and the Panthers faithful were letting him hear it. Kyler Murray improved to 3-0 against his former Oklahoma teammate in the NFL.

As mentioned earlier, the Falcons and Seahawks also won outright as underdogs. Three teams covered the spread as an underdog but failed to win outright. New Orleans covered as a 4-point underdog against the Vikings in London and almost sent the game to overtime, but Will Lutz double-doinked a 61-yard field goal as time expired. The Baltimore Ravens covered as a 3.5-point home underdog against the Buffalo Bills, but lost the game, 23-20. The Ravens had a 20-3 lead late in the first half. Elsewhere, the New England Patriots covered as a 9.5-point underdog against the Green Bay Packers despite having to play third-string rookie quarterback Bailey Zappe for most of the game. The Packers won with a field goal in overtime.

Can over bettors have their first winning week?

The first three weeks of the NFL season saw 29 unders and just 19 overs as scoring hasn't been there at the rate many anticipated. As we've seen more and more teams use the first few weeks of the regular season as an extension of the preseason, some of the football has been sloppy.

So far in Week 4, over bettors are 8-7. That's nothing to write home about, but if Monday night's game between the 49ers and Rams goes over the total of 42.5 points, it'll be the first time this season over bettors have a winning week.

The league's best over team is the Detroit Lions. All four of their games have gone over the total, including their 48-45 loss on Sunday. The game finished with 93 points, sailing way over the pregame total of 48.5 points. Overall, Lions games are averaging over 70 points per game this season. No game has finished with less than 52 points. Three of them have gone over 60 points.

On the other side of the equation, Indianapolis and Cincinnati are 4-0 to the under this season. San Francisco has a chance to join that group on Monday night. If they do, over bettors will have to wait at least another week for their first winning week.