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NFL draft betting: If you think 5 QBs will go with the first 5 picks of the draft, BetMGM has a prop with nice odds
We know which quarterbacks are going with the first two picks of this week's NFL draft. We know a quarterback is going No. 3 as well, but there's some mystery over which one the San Francisco 49ers want.
But what about four quarterbacks in four picks? How about five QBs in five picks? BetMGM is offering odds on that.
This draft will be remembered for the quarterback class, with five of them seemingly locks to go in the top half of the first round. All five might go in the top 10.
You can even concoct a perfectly reasonable story in which QBs go No. 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5. BetMGM has a prop on that exact scenario.
Could a QB go No. 4 overall?
BetMGM is offering two draft props having to do with a QB run at the top of the draft. BetMGM is offering -110 odds on QBs going with each of the first four picks. If you want to bet on it being 5-for-5, the odds are an enticing +900.
That has never happened before, but it's easy to talk yourself into it happening.
Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson are going 1-2, unless there is a massive surprise. Let's go with the betting favorite Mac Jones going No. 3. That's when it would get interesting.
The Atlanta Falcons are at No. 4 and two fine QB prospects in Justin Fields and Trey Lance would be on the board. Matt Ryan will turn 36 years old in May and has a huge contract. It's not easy to get out of that contract, but the thought of taking a QB — Fields grew up in Kennesaw, Georgia, if that nudges the Falcons at all — has to be an option. The other option that involves a quarterback is Atlanta trading down. Plenty of teams are looking for a QB, Fields and Lance are top-end prospects and there's a tax involved with trading up for a QB that many teams gladly pay. The Falcons could stay put and draft someone like tight end Kyle Pitts, but the opportunity cost is pretty high. Atlanta could get many extra picks to move down.
Let's say the Falcons take Fields or Lance, or take a huge trade offer from someone who will. Those QB-needy teams who realize the game of musical chairs is about to end will have to be making calls to the Cincinnati Bengals.
Would the Bengals trade the fifth pick?
The Bengals have the fifth pick and a quarterback, Joe Burrow. They are also a rebuilding team that could use a lot of help. The Bengals staying put at No. 5 and taking offensive tackle Penei Sewell, receiver Ja'Marr Chase or Pitts isn't the worst move. But, again, opportunity cost.
When teams figure out that there's one blue-chip quarterback left on the board and more than one team that needs a QB, it's easy to imagine every team on the clock fielding numerous calls until that last quarterback goes. Why wouldn't the Bengals, for one possibility, move from No. 5 to No. 9 with the Denver Broncos? They'd still get a good offensive tackle at No. 9 and collect more picks too. Teams like the New England Patriots and Chicago Bears also presumably could be looking to get a quarterback and could be desperate (especially the Bears, whose coach and GM probably need a winning season to still be around in 2022).
And that's how a +900 ticket could easily cash. It's pretty much a lock that quarterbacks will go with the first three picks. Another goes at No. 4 to the Falcons or in a trade, and then there's a land rush to get the last QB on the board. In that scenario, it would be hard for the Bengals to pass on trade offers.
If that happens, it would be unprecedented and make for a crazy 20 minutes or so that would go down in NFL draft lore. It could happen.
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