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2022 NFL draft betting: Oregon DE Kayvon Thibodeaux favored to go No. 1 overall
A quarterback has been selected No. 1 overall in 15 of the last 20 NFL drafts, but the early betting odds for the 2022 draft show there could be a break to that trend.
BetMGM posted its odds for the first pick in next year’s draft and lists Oregon defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux as the betting favorite. Thibodeaux has +250 odds at BetMGM, putting him ahead of three quarterbacks: Oklahoma’s Spencer Rattler (+300), North Carolina’s Sam Howell (+400) and USC’s Kedon Slovis (+800).
Thibodeaux was a five-star recruit in the class of 2019 who has lived up to the hype during his first two seasons at Oregon. As a true freshman, the 6-foot-5, 250-pound Thibodeaux had 35 tackles, 14 tackles for loss and nine sacks. In last year’s abbreviated season, Thibodeaux had 42 tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss and three sacks in seven games.
Should Thibodeaux go off the board first overall, he would be the first defensive end to be drafted in that slot since Myles Garrett in 2017 and Jadeveon Clowney in 2014. Before those two, you have to go back to Mario Williams in 2006 and Courtney Brown in 2000 to find defensive players who went No. 1 overall.
“Defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux is the early betting favorite to be the first overall pick in the 2022 NFL draft. Quarterbacks are always coveted at the top of the draft but Thibodeaux would make any team better,” said Darren Darby, a sports trader for BetMGM. “As of now, Spencer Rattler, Sam Howell and Kedon Slovis are the most likely passers to go first.”
Who are next year’s top college QBs to know?
The No. 1 pick has been a quarterback in the last four drafts, with Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence going to the Jacksonville Jaguars in this year’s draft. That’s why it’s no surprise to find five of the top seven best odds belonging to quarterbacks.
Rattler was a five-star recruit who served as the backup to Jalen Hurts at Oklahoma in 2019. He became the starter in 2020. He had some rough moments early in the season but just got better and better as the year progressed. He finished the season with 3,031 yards and 28 touchdowns while completing 67.5% of his throws. Rattler will be a redshirt sophomore in 2021.
Howell has been the starter at UNC since he stepped on campus two years ago. Over his two years in Chapel Hill, he has thrown for a remarkable 7,227 yards and 68 touchdowns. Slovis also started as a freshman, stepping in for USC when JT Daniels went down with a season-ending knee injury in Week 1 of the 2019 season. Slovis was an unheralded recruit, but has thrived in Graham Harrell’s air raid-style offense. In two seasons, Slovis has thrown for 5,423 yards and 47 touchdowns while completing 70% of his attempts.
In addition to Rattler, Howell and Slovis, Liberty’s Malik Willis and Daniels (now at Georgia) are listed at +1400 with LSU cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. in between at +1100.
Willis is an interesting case. He began his career at Auburn, but wasn’t seen as much of a thrower. The Tigers worked Willis into the offense here and there, but mainly as a running threat. Once he transferred to Liberty, he was able to show off his passing strengths. In 2020, Willis threw for 2,250 yards and 20 TDs. He also rushed for 944 yards and 14 scores.
Daniels stayed at USC in 2019 while injured and later transferred to Georgia. It took him a while to break into the starting lineup at UGA, but the offensive thrived once he got that chance. In just four games, Daniels threw for 1,231 yards and 10 touchdowns. He’ll have a big chance to move up draft boards going against SEC defenses during the 2021 season.
Further down the list you’ll find a few other quarterbacks: Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder at +2500 and Nevada’s Carson Strong at +4000. Ridder is a three-year starter for the Bearcats who showed considerable improvements in his accuracy from 2019 to 2020. Strong threw for 2,858 yards and 27 touchdowns in just nine games in 2020.
2022 NFL draft odds for No. 1 pick
Kayvon Thibodeaux: +250
Spencer Rattler: +300
Sam Howell: +400
Kedon Slovis: +800
Derek Stingley: +1100
Malik Willis: +1400
JT Daniels: +1400
Kyle Hamilton: +2000
Zion Nelson: +2500
Evan Neal: +2500
DeMarvin Leal: +2500
Kenyon Green: +2500
Desmond Ridder: +2500
Kaiir Elam: +3500
Bubba Bolden: +4000
Carson Strong: +4000
Ikem Ekwonu: +4000
Jamaree Salyer: +4000
Phil Jurkovec: +4000
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