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NFL odds: Cowboys' Micah Parson is most popular bet for DPOY, but odds haven't moved

Frank Schwab
·NFL writer
·3-min read

Micah Parsons was in contention for NFL Defensive Player of the Year right until the end of last season. He had to settle for Defensive Rookie of the Year.

Bettors think the Dallas Cowboys' second-year linebacker will get the big award this season.

Parsons is the most popular bet for NFL Defensive Player of the Year and the biggest liability in that market for BetMGM.

It doesn't seem like the sportsbook is all that worried about Parsons winning it, however.

Micah Parsons most popular DPOY bet

The numbers on Parsons for DPOY are eye-opening.

Parsons accounts for 21.5% of all bets made on DPOY and 26.7% of all the money bet on that award. By comparison, Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson leads the MVP markets at 18.4% of bets and 17.1% of money.

Usually when a player gets more than a quarter of the money bet in an award market, the odds will change. That hasn't happened at BetMGM with Parsons. He opened at +900 to win Defensive Player of the Year. He still stands at +900. Myles Garrett and T.J. Watt are co-favorites at +700. Aaron Donald is tied with Parsons at +900.

The reason a sportsbook will shift odds when one player (or team, in a market like Super Bowl champion) gets most of the action is they want to balance out the bets to other players, or at least slow down the number of bets on the popular pick. The house generally doesn't want an inordinate amount of money on any player. Wilson changed from +3000 to win MVP to +1400.

By not shifting Parsons' odds, the sportsbook is making its own gamble. You're still welcomed to bet Parsons at the exact same price he opened at.

Dallas Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons is coming off a huge rookie season. (AP Photo/Brandon Wade)
Dallas Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons is coming off a huge rookie season. (AP Photo/Brandon Wade) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)

Can Parsons chase sack record?

Parsons got in the DPOY race last season because his sack numbers blew up. It's not as overwhelming as voters' desire to pick a quarterback for MVP, but usually they look to sack numbers first for DPOY and work back from there.

Parsons finished with 13 sacks, not good enough to beat out T.J. Watt for the award. Parsons said this offseason that he wants to hit at least 15 sacks while making a run at 23, which would break the NFL single-season record that Watt and Michael Strahan share. He has the talent to do it. The Cowboys coaching staff will create some creative ways to get him in advantageous matchups after an offseason to scheme around Parsons' talents.

If Parsons gets anywhere near 20 sacks, he'll have a lot of publicity. That's the benefit of playing for Dallas. He could still get beat if Garrett or someone else has a record-setting season, but if Parsons leads the NFL in sacks or close, he has a great chance to win DPOY.

If he does, a lot of bettors will be happy.