NFL odds: How are bettors playing the AFC and NFC championship games?

Frank Schwab
·2-min read

The great story of Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the second-half surge of the Buffalo Bills haven’t moved bettors too much.

Bettors generally lean toward favorites and overs, and that’s the case for the two conference championship games. The Kansas City Chiefs and Green Bay Packers are getting a majority of the bets, according to BetMGM data analyst John Ewing. The overs are preferred by bettors too.

It’s hard to bet against Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers, after all.

Packers, Chiefs are popular bets

Here are the percentages of bets on the side and total for each conference championship game, via Ewing:

74% of bets on Packers -3.5
65% of bets on Packers-Bucs over 51.5
60% of bets on Chiefs -3.5
55% of bets on Chiefs-Bills over 54.5

The most interesting piece of that could be the line movement on the NFC game.

Even though three-quarters of bets are coming in on the Packers, the line keeps moving the other way. The Buccaneers were +4, then dipped down to +3.5 and they were +3 at some books as of Sunday morning. That kind of reverse line movement is an indication that sharp, well-respected bettors are on the Buccaneers with the points.

The Packers have been a juggernaut for the last part of the season, especially on offense. But Brady and the Bucs have been very good as well. There’s good reason sharps like the Bucs are more than a field goal.

Tom Brady and the Buccaneers are underdogs in the NFC championship game. (AP Photo/Jason Behnken)
Tom Brady and the Buccaneers are underdogs in the NFC championship game. (AP Photo/Jason Behnken)

Bettors expecting a lot of points

The common theme between the games is quality quarterback play, and efficient offenses.

Even though snow is expected in Green Bay and temperatures will be in the 20s, bettors are still expecting an offensive show between Brady and Rodgers. That’s reflected in the amount of over bets.

The battle between Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes is another fun one, with bettors siding on the over despite a high total. Allen has played very well as the Bills have won nine of their last 10, including two playoff wins. Mahomes is coming off a concussion and bothered by turf toe, but he’s still a great quarterback and Kansas City’s offense can score in a hurry.

The NFL will get two great matchups to determine who plays in Super Bowl LV. If bettors are right, we’re about to see a lot of points on Sunday.

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