NFL player props: Broncos' Courtland Sutton is a bucking nightmare for the Colts

Thursday night's meeting between the Indianapolis Colts and the Denver Broncos will finally answer the burning question of which horse reigns supreme. Here are three props from BetMGM that I'll be packing my saddlebags with tonight:

Courtland Sutton over 65.5 receiving yards (-115)

Throughout training camp, we heard about the strong rapport Broncos QB Russell Wilson was establishing with Sutton. Four games into the season, we're seeing it. Sutton has a 27.8% target share, averaging 8.8 targets and 85.8 receiving yards per game. Nearly 17% of his catches have gone for 30 or more yards. No Broncos pass-catcher has even half as many receptions as Denver's alpha wideout. Jerry Jeudy's 183 receiving yards are the closest to Sutton's 343. Wilson and Sutton aren't just on the same page, they're on the same line.

The Colts have allowed three of the four WR1's they've faced to hit this prop. Brandin Cooks caught seven balls for 82 yards in Week 1, Christian Kirk went six for 78 and a pair of scores in Week 2 and JuJu Smith-Schuster turned five receptions into 89 yards in Week 3. Sutton has cleared this mark in three of his four games this season.

Nyheim Hines over 3.5 receptions (-140)

Matt Ryan targeted his running backs 26% of the time as QB of the Falcons in 2021. With the Colts, he's targeting his backfield at a clip of 22.7%. No Jonathan Taylor tonight should translate to increased usage for Hines, who's averaging 4.8 targets and 4.3 receptions per game. Indy's offensive line has dropped off in a big way this season, as Ryan has taken the fifth-most sacks (15) and leads the league in fumbles (9). Hines will get his share of dump-offs to go along with his schemed touches. He's hit this prop in 75% of his games this year.

No Indianapolis touchdown (+900)

Frank Reich's team ranks dead last in offensive DVOA and 31st in EPA per play. That's with Jonathan Taylor. They were completely blanked in Jacksonville in Week 2 and will face another good defense tonight in the Broncos, who are allowing 9.5 points per game at home.

Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton is averaging 85.8 receiving yards per game. (C. Morgan Engel/USA TODAY Sports)
Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton is averaging 85.8 receiving yards per game. (C. Morgan Engel/USA TODAY Sports)

Stats provided by Pro Football Reference, teamrankings.com, Football Outsiders, CBS Sports, and rbsdm.com.