NFL wildcard weekend predictions: Will the Steelers upset the Bills?

They playoffs arrive with a super wildcard weekend packed with intrigue. The field is wider than ever after a rollercoaster regular season, any contender from the hobbled giants, plucky upstarts and surprise packages can make a case for a deep playoff run, all will believe they can live for another week until the league’s true heavyweights, San Francisco and Baltimore, enter the fray.

Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans (Saturday, 4.30pm EST/9.30pm GMT)

What the Browns need to do to win: Joe Flacco has to continue the no-fear approach that yielded an unlikely run to the playoffs. The 38-year-old’s stats through five games – 1,616 yards and 13 touchdowns – extrapolated out across 17 would make him a contender for MVP. Keeping him well protected – he has been given a tidy 2.6 seconds to work from the pocket on average – has been the key ingredient to the eye-popping passing numbers.

What the Texans need to do to win: Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik needs to show a little more faith in CJ Stroud. The Texans struggled against the Indianpolis Colts last week after the 75-yard touchdown on the opening play as Slowik tried and failed to establish the run. Devin Singletary’s 24 carries for 62 yards slowed them down significantly. Stroud has to have more opportunities to make plays.

Key player: Myles Garrett, DE, Browns. The finest edge rusher leads the league’s stingiest passing defense. The consistency with which he beats offensive linemen, a 30% win-rate that drops to 29% when two men take him on per ESPN analytics, is his superpower. No quarterback is safe.

Prediction: Browns over Texans

Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs (Saturday, 8pm EST/1am GMT)

What the Dolphins need to do to win: The Dolphins’ defensive coordinator, Vic Fangio, has to throw everything at Patrick Mahomes. Even if Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert are healthy enough to play, Miami’s offense is unlikely to be the powerhouse it was earlier in the year. That means Fangio’s unit has to do the heavy lifting through sacks and turnovers, their 56 QB takedowns rank third in the league.

What the Chiefs need to do to win: Kansas City must make a fresh start. Andy Reid will be glad to close the door on a muddled regular season in which the Chiefs surprisingly struggled on home turf, a 5-4 record was their worst under Reid at Arrowhead. Mahomes must raise a limited offense that has generated 300 or more passing yards only twice this season (they did so 10 times in 2022). Miami’s own limitations through a long list of injuries should help stir Mahomes’s appetite.

Key player: Jaylen Waddle, WR, Dolphins. Miami have to get Waddle back in the lineup. Even if he is not completely ready to return, the Dolphins need the attention he grabs from a defense to relieve some of the burden on Tyreek Hill, who is working through a quadricep and ankle injury of his own.

Prediction: Chiefs over Dolphins

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills (Sunday, 1pm EST/6pm GMT)

What the Steelers need to do to win: The defense needs to rally after losing TJ Watt to injury. Mike Tomlin and coordinator Teryl Austin must work quickly to fill the gaping void the linebacker has left. What Pittsburgh will hope to carry them through is the massive rise in production from backup QB Mason Rudolph and Najee Harris, who ran for 100 yards in back-to-back games for the first time in his career over the last two weeks. If the uptick feels out of nowhere that’s because it is: 29% of George Pickens’ total yards this season have come in two games with Rudolph. Going all guns out could be their only hope.

What the Bills need to do to win: Find a way to convert in the red zone. For two weeks in succession Buffalo have spluttered when it counts. Three trips inside Miami’s 20-yard line ended with no points, the joint-most of any team this season. Tomlin is as canny as they come and will capitalise on any advantage, especially with the Steelers sitting proudly atop the “nobody believes in us” rankings.

Key player: Josh Allen, QB, Bills. If Allen is hot, Buffalo cruise. If he’s cold, they crumble. The win last week showed all of his prowess and imperfection. If he can get rid of the ball faster and stop throwing needless interceptions, his dynamic running and passing without Watt harassing him will get the job done. Five wins in succession to win the AFC East was impressive, but the season could have been a lot smoother if Allen let his teammates share the load.

Prediction: Bills over Steelers

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (Sunday, 4.30pm EST/9.30pm GMT)

What the Packers need to do to win: Jordan Love’s quality feels assured now after a mixed start to life as the franchise figurehead. Questions remain over a boom-or-bust defense that has to play keep-away with the jitters that almost cost them during a narrow escape against Carolina on Christmas Eve. They survived a back-and-forth battle with Dallas last season but need to escape being sucked into another one.

What the Cowboys need to do to win: Dallas fans need to keep the home fires burning. The team’s unparalleled connection with their home stadium has garnered results that speak for themselves: they are 8-0 at AT&T Stadium this season. Their run game looks stuck without an overhaul of the offensive line, so they will lean on Dak Prescott’s arm. Brandin Cooks deserves some more targets; his speed can shred the Packers.

Key player: CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys. A force of nature who powered Dallas into reclaiming the NFC East. Lamb had the best statistical season ever for a Cowboys receiver: 135 catches and 1,749 yards of phenomenal production. Can Green Bay stop him? They struggled last year to the tune of 150 yards with a pair of touchdowns.

Prediction: Cowboys over Packers

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (Sunday, 8pm EST/1am GMT)

What the Rams need to do to win: Los Angeles need to be go pass heavy from the outset. They have an elite quarterback with two devastating weapons at his disposal. Detroit’s run stopping is too strong to give up any significant gains. Let Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp exploit a Lions’ backfield that has conceded 350 yards a game in their past three outings.

What the Lions need to do to win: Detroit need to feed off what will be an unbelievable atmosphere at Ford Field. They are 6-2 at home, outscoring opponents by nine points a game, this season. They should keep the Rams guessing by mixing up David Montgomery’s power with Jahmyr Gibbs’s speed as much as possible, then hit them with an Amon-Ra St Brown haymaker.

Key player: Matthew Stafford, QB, Rams. Revenge. After 12 fruitless years propping the Lions up, Stafford returns for a first playoff game at Ford Field. The veteran is at the peak of his powers, territory he knows intimately will only enhance them further.

Prediction: Rams over Lions

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Monday, 8.15pm EST/1.15am GMT)

What the Eagles need to do to win: They need to come together on defense because, as it stands, their expensive blue-chip roster is a total dud. Start over with a fresh perspective or start the car. If defense wins championships, one conceding 31 points a game in their past seven needs a rethink quickly.

What the Buccaneers need to do to win: Avoid complacency. Baker Mayfield, the ultimate confidence player, will be feeling good about his chances with Mike Evans at his disposal. But that connection is what Philadelphia are expecting, switching it up by spreading the ball around will keep them on their heels. Chris Godwin, Rachaad White, even the underused Cade Otton, can all make a difference.

Key player: Lavonte David, LB, Buccaneers. An elite run stopper whose speed, in diagnosing the opposition and making tackles, will be critical for Tampa Bay to grind down Philadelphia’s powerful rushing attack. David can lead a strong counter that puts the ball in the hands of Jalen Hurts. From there the game could be sewn up.

Prediction: Buccaneers over Eagles