What are the odds? How the data views Wanderers' chances of automatic promotion

WANDERERS’ chances of snatching a promotion place on the final day of the season are just one in 125, according to data analysts Opta.

The firm’s supercomputer has seen Wanderers climb above Derby County in just 0.8 per cent of its simulations for the final round of games in 2023/24, whereas Paul Warne’s Rams have finished on top in 99.1 per cent of the tests.

Peterborough were given just a 0.1 per cent chance of finishing second as they went into their game at Cheltenham Town needing a win and to then needing a nine-goal swing on the final weekend.

The same data gives Wanderers a 67.2 per cent chance of finishing third, and a 32.1 per cent chance of finishing fourth after they face Posh at the Weston Homes Stadium this weekend.

Wanderers could still face any of four teams in the play-off semi-final but are guaranteed to avoid Peterborough, with both clubs only able to drop as far as fourth in the final round of games.

We have put a spotlight on the play-off contenders’ respective chances along with the up and downsides to Bolton facing them in the semi-finals.

Ex-Bolton midfielder Luca Connell - now at Barnsley - shakes hands with Horsham's mascot in the FA Cup (Image: PA)

BARNSLEY

Play-off chances – 83.2 per cent.

Remaining game – Northampton (H).

Recent form – Since Randell Williams grabbed a late equaliser at Oakwell back on March 5, the Oakwell men have won just two of their 11 league games – and they took the ultimate decision on Monday to sack manager Neil Collins.

Martin Devaney has stepped into the hotseat for the final weekend but there is optimistic talk in the town that Michael Duff could be approached if Barnsley rubber-stamp their place in the play-offs, setting up the possibility of a repeat of last season’s semi-final against Wanderers.

On the plus side - At one point this season Barnsley’s mechanical consistency made them look strong contenders for automatic promotion but they really came unstuck after Bolton’s visit last month and a new manager is not going to get much time to get the team playing his way.

On the downside - Wanderers have drawn both games against Barnsley this season and while the Tykes do not have the same aura they had 12 months ago, there is a psychological hurdle for Bolton to clear if they have to go back to Oakwell in a play-off.

Lincoln's Joe Taylor, left, getting in a tangle with Derby's James Collins (Image: PA)

LINCOLN CITY

Play-off chances – 61.8 per cent.

Remaining game – Portsmouth (H).

Recent form – Been on a magnificent surge up the table, winning 12 of their last 16 games, including some heavy-hitting scorelines against Barnsley, Cambridge United and Bristol Rovers.

A 1-0 win at Oxford last Tuesday gave Michael Skubala’s side a strong chance of the top six but they must overcome champions Portsmouth on the final day to keep hold of their place.

On the plus side - Bolton’s record against Lincoln – especially under Ian Evatt – is very strong.

The Imps have won just once against Wanderers in all competitions since 1985, and that against a side already resigned to relegation under Keith Hill in 2020.

On the downside - Lincoln’s form since the turn of the year has been up there with the very best in the division and in Luton loanee Joe Taylor they have found a regular source of goals. It could well be that they have timed their run perfectly.

Oxford United's Cameron Brannagan has been integral in their recent good form (Image: PA)

OXFORD UNITED

Play-off chances – 35.7 per cent.

Remaining game – Exeter City (A).

Recent form – After convincing wins against Fleetwood, Burton and Peterborough at the start of this month it looked as though Des Buckingham’s side were going to secure the top six spot they have occupied for much of the season. The home defeat to Lincoln and a draw at Stevenage last weekend has now thrown a spanner in the works and they are relying on a slip-up to extend their season.

On the plus side - Recent results against Oxford have been encouraging, not least their 5-0 spanking at the Toughsheet Stadium only last month. The U’s play an expansive possession game and that does tend to suit Wanderers.

On the downside - Any form of over-confidence would be dangerous – Oxford have put together some truly impressive results in the last couple of months which suggest Buckingham is starting to get things the way he wants them.

Blackpool's Bolton-born midfielder Ollie Norburn (Image: PA)

BLACKPOOL

Play-off chances – 19.2 per cent.

Remaining game – Reading (A).

Recent form – The Tangerines are finishing strong with four straight wins, including a 3-2 victory against Barnsley last time out. Decidedly stronger at Bloomfield Road than they are on the road, their chances would look stronger if they were playing Reading at home rather than at the Select Car Leasing Stadium this weekend.

On the plus side - It isn’t very far. Decent fish and chips. And Bolton beat their fellow Lancastrians at home in November in front of a massive crowd thanks to George Thomason’s screamer – proof that they can turn it on when it matters.

On the downside - Wanderers’ dreadful record at Bloomfield Road continued this season with a drab 4-1 defeat in the league – albeit one accelerated by Ricardo Santos’s farcical red card – and also a penalty shootout defeat in the Bristol Street Motors Trophy.

The Whites haven’t won at Blackpool since 1977, although what a great time it would be to change that statistic?