OPINION - Big fare rises on the way as TfL tries to break even

What’s the news line? The most salient angle, the killer fact or the story readers ought to know? That’s the question journalists and editors are always (politely) asking of sources and colleagues.

Sometimes the answer is obvious. A famous person dies, a politician says ‘sorry’ or a sports team wins the world cup. But other times you pick up a 100-page report packed with detail and need to decide what to pick out to weave a coherent narrative.

The subject of today’s newsletter is that second type of news story. And to be clear, the hard yards in deciphering it were undertaken by the Standard’s indefatigable City Hall and Transport Editor, Ross Lydall.

Here we go. Today, Transport for London published its draft Business Plan, which covers the period 2022/23 to 2025/26. As you might expect, there is a lot in it.

FARES

Tube and bus passengers will be paying a record £6bn a year in fares, under TfL’s new plans to break even. Finance chiefs anticipate annual fares income to climb by £1.7bn or 40% over the next three-and-a-half years, thanks to a combination of rising passenger numbers and annual price hikes.

As part of the bailout deal from last August, the government expects TfL fares to rise by at least 4% next March, in line with national rail fares, by the same again in 2024, and RPI plus 1% in the following two years, though the mayor can set his own figure.

PASSENGER NUMBERS

TfL has acknowledged that it will take years before ridership returns to ‘normal’. It predicts that Tube and Overground journeys will only reach 86% of pre-pandemic levels by 2026, and bus journeys 91%. Ominously, it has provided no date for TfL journeys to hit 100% of ‘normal’.

PENSIONS

While there is a need for a further £600m a year in savings, the plan makes no mention of cuts to staff pensions, the basis for some of the recent strikes. TfL commissioner Andy Lord told the Standard that the business plan should reassure unions on staff pensions: “We have not assumed any savings from any changes to pensions at all in the period of this business plan.”

However, the main Tube drivers’ union gave no indication that this olive branch would prevent further industrial action. Finn Brennan, Aslef’s organiser on the London Underground, said: There is no justification for detrimental changes and Aslef will oppose them by all possible means.”

IMPROVEMENTS

Passengers can expect new trains on the Piccadilly line and DLR, the completion of a new signalling system on sub-surface lines and the opening of the Silvertown tunnel in 2025.

ACTIVE TRAVEL

TfL wants to cut car journeys in central London from 1.4m to 1.1m by 2030, and increase the proportion of Londoners who undertake at least 20 minutes of active travel a day, such as walking and cycling, from 35% to 52%. To that end, about £150m a year will be spent on walking and cycling schemes.

As you can see from the front page, the Standard led on the fares angle. Though Ross’s excellent piece contains all the information above and more.

To my mind, what’s missing from TfL’s plan is anything approaching proper future-proofing. Where’s the ironclad commitment to building the DLR extension to Thamesmead, the Bakerloo line extension, the West London Orbital or the one that feels closest to science fiction at this point, Crossrail 2?

In the report, TfL says it recognises it must “meet the needs of a growing London” but concedes these projects remain stuck in feasibility mode and any network extensions “depend on securing additional funding as the significant capital requirement is not affordable from our operating revenue alone.” That does not sound encouraging.

In the comment pages, Bob Ward says COP27 failed, and so London must take its own action. While Sarfraz Manzoor, aged 51, feels like he’s struggling to make new friends and, even if he did, they wouldn’t be seeing the best of him.

And finally, what is it about Richmond-upon-Thames, with its river views, deer-filled parks, ample transport links and elegant homes that makes it such a popular place to live? The borough has come top in Rightmove’s Happy at Home Index for the eighth year running. If you scroll down you’ll also find an interactive map though I warn you, things get progressively unhappier.

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