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Oscars Predictions: Original Screenplay – Will Martin McDonagh’s ‘Banshees’ Find Love After BAFTA

Clayton Davis
·4-min read

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

LAST UPDATED: Feb. 23, 2023

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2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Original Screenplay

EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE, Ke Huy Quan, 2022. © A24 / Courtesy Everett Collection
EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE, Ke Huy Quan, 2022. © A24 / Courtesy Everett Collection

CATEGORY COMMENTARY: The Writers Guild of America Awards announced its selections on Jan. 25 where Oscar-nominated A24’s “Everything Everywhere All at Once” by the Daniels, Universal’s “The Fabelmans” by Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg and Todd Field’s “Tár” were among the nominees.

Searchlight’s “The Banshees of Inisherin” by Martin McDonagh and Neon’s “Triangle of Sadness” by Ruben Östlund were not eligible for the guild’s prize.

Even if you are skeptical about “Everything Everywhere” pulling off the big win for best picture after landing 11 nods, the original screenplay race seems to be an appropriate place to reward the multiverse comedy. However, McDonagh, a beloved playwright, is walking in with the Golden Globe prize for best screenplay, which tends to be powerful heading into the ceremony.

The Globes combine both original and adapted scripts, but of the original stories that have won over the last 23 years — “Belfast” (2021), “The Trial of the Chicago 7” (2020), “Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood” (2019), “Green Book” (2018), “Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri” (2017), “La La Land” (2016), “Birdman” (2014), “Her” (2013), “Django Unchained” (2012), “Midnight in Paris” (2011), “The Queen” (2006) and “Lost in Translation” (2003) — seven of the 12 went on to win the Oscar for original screenplay. Two of the five that didn’t translate “Three Billboards” and “The Queen” were beaten by films that weren’t Globe nominated, “Get Out” and “Little Miss Sunshine.”

Interestingly, with “Banshees” now winning BAFTA, the last film to lose the Oscar after having both Globe and BAFTA: Martin McDonagh for “Three Billboards.”

See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective. To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.

See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

And The Predicted Nominees Are:

Rank

Film

Writer(s)

Distributor

1

“The Banshees of Inisherin”

Martin McDonagh

Searchlight Pictures

Two lifelong friends find themselves at an impasse when one abruptly ends their relationship, with alarming consequences for both of them.

2

“Everything Everywhere All at Once”

Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert

A24

An aging Chinese immigrant is swept up in an insane adventure, where she alone can save the world by exploring other universes connecting with the lives she could have led.

3

“Tár”

Todd Field

Focus Features

Set in the international world of classical music, the film centers on Lydia Tár. widely considered one of the greatest living composer/conductors and first-ever female chief conductor of a major German orchestra.

4

“Triangle of Sadness”

Ruben Östlund

Neon

A cruise for the super-rich sinks thus leaving survivors, including a fashion model celebrity couple, trapped on an island.

5

“The Fabelmans”

Tony Kushner, Steven Spielberg

Universal Pictures

A semi-autobiography based on Spielberg’s own childhood growing up in post-war Arizona, from age seven to eighteen.

2023 Academy Awards Predictions

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2022.

2022 category winner: "Belfast" (Focus Features) - Kenneth Lonergan

About Variety Awards Circuit:

Variety's unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online and provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year's awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes -- Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety's leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.

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