Perfect home form must come as standard if Liverpool are to triumph in title fight

Having watched both Arsenal and Manchester City pick up routine, almost effortless wins in midweek, the Premier League title gauntlet is laid back down for Liverpool to go on and do the same on Thursday, against Sheffield United.

The Premier League’s bottom club should not, in all fairness, be the ones to force the first big upset in the sprint finish, but the top flight does have a habit of throwing up unexpected results when the pressure builds most.

Not, however, on home soil for the biggest teams.

Arsenal’s win over Luton came at the Emirates; Man City thrashed Aston Villa at the Etihad. These fixtures meant it’s now 66 home games played between the top three this season, across all competitions, and just two defeats: both for the Gunners, both across a back-to-back (-to-back) blip where they suffered three losses in a row. One, indeed, was against the Reds in the FA Cup. Most recently, Arsenal held City to a goalless draw.

It’s increasingly a theme, a fact, that to win the Premier Leauge you first need to be close to perfect on home soil. Without that, you are merely an also-ran, a top-four challenger at best. It’s 22 home games for City and 24 for Liverpool - the two clubs who have continually fought for top honours against each other over most of the last seven years - and not a single club has beaten them. The Blades, with three league wins to their name this term, are next to try their luck.

While relentless winning is obviously a hallmark of title-challenging teams, it’s overlooked just how difficult it is to do.

Not just for a run. Not just for several months. But all season long and without exception, against all the injuries, the teams raising their game, the conditions and the fixture schedule juggling that managers have to contend with.

Only until recently, Aston Villa’s home form was being praised as exceptional, being put forward as a reason for them to not just be in the top four, but to be considered among those in the title race. They were never there really, and that home form has dropped off considerably now too: three defeats in their last five home games. Their is a season of improvement, without question, but the steps from fourth to first are gigantic.

There is no room for error.

And that brings us back to Thursday night and Anfield, and a game Liverpool not only should win, but must. Between now and the end of the campaign, it’s fair to suggest that if any of the leading trio drop points on home soil, they are likely to be the ones which rule them out of the running to lift the trophy.

After the Blades visit, Crystal Palace, Tottenham and Wolves will be the sides Jurgen Klopp’s club host; Arsenal entertain Villa, Chelsea, Bournemouth and Everton, while for Pep Guardiola and co it’s Luton, Wolves and West Ham.

While there may be one or two fixtures among that glut which offer tests, which are tricky for 90 minutes and which may require moments of magic, it would still be quite the surprise if any end in anything other than home wins.

That is the true relentlessness of these clubs, and the manner with which they simply...find a way.

In the more immediate term, the scale of Sheffield United’s challenge is evident. Liverpool have won every home match in 2024 so far with the exception of Man City, a 1-1 draw, while of their nine wins, seven have been by at least two goals and in six of their last eight at Anfield they have netted at least three times.

Match that up to a team who have conceded 77 times this season in the top flight and it could be an arduous 90 minutes for the visitors, though they did at least make it tough for the Reds back at Bramall Lane, with the second in an eventual 2-0 win to Liverpool only coming in stoppage time.

The expectation will be on a Reds win, and a comfortable one, just as Arsenal managed, just as Man City did. At this stage, only the points matter - but as the very elite clubs keep showing, on home soil that’s almost a certainty.