Premier League European qualification 2019-20: Who’s in the race for Champions League and Europa League

We’re in the final three rounds of Premier League matches as the clubs try and secure their spots in next season’s European competitions.

Monday’s news that the Court of Arbitration for Sport had overturned the two-season ban handed out to Manchester City by Uefa has left their rivals scrambling, knowing that a fifth-place finish will no longer be good enough to secure Champions League football.

City will finish second this season, so they along with champions Liverpool have guaranteed their place in next season’s Champions League.

But who else can qualify, and which teams will be fighting for the Europa League places?

Champions League qualification race

Chelsea, Leicester City and Manchester United are the front runners, with Chelsea (currently in third) needing four points to secure their place, but they face tricky fixtures against Wolves and Liverpool in their remaining two games.

Brendan Rodgers’ Leicester have three matches remaining, and need to win all three to be sure of qualification.

They have only once since the restart, and face tough fixtures against Tottenham, Sheffield United and Manchester United – with that final day meeting with Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side likely to decide their fate.

Manchester United are in the same situation but have more favourable fixtures against Crystal Palace and West Ham before they meet the Foxes.

Wolves hopes slimmed dramatically after they controversially dropped points against Burnley. They must beat Crystal Palace and Chelsea and hope other results go their way.

Tottenham’s chances are by far the slimmest despite Wednesday’ night’s win at Newcastle. Spurs are four points off the top four but have played a game more that Leicester City and Manchester United. They need to win both their remaining games (Leicester, Crystal Palace) to stand any chance, but would require other results to go their way.

It’s the same situation for Sheffield United as well, with the Blades facing Leicester, Everton and Southampton in their final games.

With Leicester and Manchester United already on 59 points and playing each other on the final day, Arsenal cannot qualify for the Champions League.

We could still have a play-off as well!

If Leicester City and Manchester United finish in fourth and fifth, level on points, goal difference and goals scored, then it goes down to head-to-head record (factoring in away goals). United won 1-0 at Old Trafford in September. And if Leicester replicated that result with a win 1-0 on the final day then they would need a play-off to decide who finishes fourth. Imagine that!

Europa League qualification race

Arsenal kept their hopes of qualifying via the League alive with their shock win over Liverpool, but they remain the outsiders despite final fixtures against Aston Villa and Watford. But they can still book their place in the Europa League by winning the FA Cup.

They are not the only side who can benefit from the FA Cup though. Should the eventual winners finish inside the top six, then seventh place will qualify for the Europa League. Man City, Chelsea and Manchester United are the other four sides left in the competition.

Wolves needed three wins from three to secure their place, but drew at against Burnley on Wednesday. But if seventh place does qualify, then two wins in their final games will be enough.

Tottenham’s win at Newcastle kept them in contention, but they will need to beat Leicester City and Crystal Palace and hope that either Wolves or Sheffield United drop more points.

Following Wolves’ slip up, Sheffield United can finish in the top six with three wins.

Burnley are the outsiders. Their point against Wolves means they must win their remaining two games and hope A LOT of other results go their way.

At least one of Chelsea, Leicester or Manchester United will be in the Europa League, of course.

And here’s where it gets (more) complicated…

If Chelsea overturn their 3-0 first leg deficit to Bayern Munich and go on to win the Champions League, and finish outside the top four, then five English sides will compete in Europe’s premier competition, with sixth and seventh entering the Europa League.

With City having already qualified, winning the completion won’t impact the Premier League.

But what about the Europa League? Should Manchester United or Wolves win the Europa League but finish inside the top four then only four sides will compete in the Champions League, but should they finish outside the top four five teams will enter.

And should Chelsea win the Champions League AND Manchester United or Wolves win the Europa League - and neither finish in the top four - then only the top three will qualify for the Champions League.

To complicate things even further, Uefa regulations suggest the Premier League could have eight teams in Europe if that happened and one of them did not finish in the top six or seven - or nine if they both fail to.

There you have it, simple really…