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Premier League: Liverpool and Manchester City are fighting for the title with passengers between the sticks

Premier League: Liverpool and Manchester City are fighting for the title with passengers between the sticks

They are the exceptions in the Premier League’s Big Six, the two who stand out for the wrong reasons. Liverpool and Manchester City were not just the only pair to lose at the weekend. They have the two first-choice goalkeepers who do not look plausible Premier League winners.

Manchester United’s David de Gea, Arsenal’s Petr Cech and Chelsea’s Thibaut Courtois already have the medals to prove they can anchor a title-winning team. Tottenham’s Hugo Lloris is yet to have his excellence recognised in such a way, but Spurs had the joint best defensive record last season and boast the finest this: he can attribute his comparative lack of silverware to others’ shortcomings.

Then there are Liverpool’s Loris Karius and Manchester City’s Claudio Bravo: convenient scapegoats, yes, but at least partly culpable for damaging weekend defeats, newcomers to the division who have made the wrong sort of first impression. The Chilean won La Liga with Barcelona, but when he was called into action less. The German is the youngster being pitted against men at the peak of their powers.

They are being damned by questions of style and statistics alike. Karius seemed to dive over Ryan Fraser’s shot when the Scot scored for Bournemouth and tamely parried Steve Cook’s effort into Nathan Ake’s path for the injury-time winner. Bravo stood and watched Willian put Chelsea ahead at the Etihad Stadium, in the manner of a man who thought his status as the supposed 11th outfield player meant he was playing rush goalie, rather than being a professional shot-stopper.

Brian Clough’s theory that a top goalkeeper was worth 10-12 points a season was invoked when Cech joined Arsenal. Bravo and Karius are yet to earn their respective sides a point; there is a case to be made that they are already in the debit column. Bravo may have cost City against Chelsea; he threatened to do on his debut in the Manchester derby. These are not just six-pointers, but potentially season-defining games, where titles can be won and lost.

Each was an ideological signing, Pep Guardiola plumping for one whose pass completion rate of 75.6 percent is far superior to the exiled Joe Hart’s distribution data in previous years and Jurgen Klopp is eschewing big names in typical cost-conscious fashion to try and build a team. Karius is 23 and should improve. It is still worth persevering with him ahead of Simon Mignolet who is unlikely to get any better but his only truly impressive performance came against Watford, with a string of saves when Liverpool had already scored five goals. Perhaps it highlighted why Klopp believes in him, but it is hard to argue it changed the outcome.

And even with that impressive, if irrelevant, outing, the Liverpool man has only saved 65.5 percent of shots on target in the Premier League, the City player just 66.7 percent. The figures are unflattering. They fall far behind Cech (75.5 percent) and are comfortably behind Courtois (70.3 percent). Lloris is rather closer, on 67.6 percent, but the Frenchman’s 78.3 percent save rate in the Champions League, where he has been exceptional, is a further indication of his capability. The surprise may be that De Gea is only on 65.2 percent in the Premier League.

Yet as the Spaniard saved 73 percent of shots on target in each of the last two seasons, it feels artificially low. And while it is noteworthy Bravo also had a higher save percentage rate in his Barcelona days, his reluctance to dive, coupled with De Gea’s history of brilliance, means the Spaniard is afforded the benefit of the doubt: the probability is his eventual figure for this season will rank alongside the numbers for previous campaigns. Perhaps tellingly, Kasper Schmeichel also saved 73 percent of efforts for champions Leicester last year.

That feels the marker for clubs with genuine aspirations. Karius and Bravo’s statistics may seem comparatively near, but it is the difference between opponents needing three shots on target to score and four. Top teams afford fewer chances so it can be the difference between a clean sheet and a costly concession.

Claudio Bravo in action
Claudio Bravo in action

And it would be revolutionary in its own way if Liverpool or City were to become champions. Premier League winners have tended to possess an outstanding goalkeeper, with Peter Schmeichel, David Seaman and Edwin van der Sar the most obvious examples. Even when they do not have the division’s best, they tend to have one of the three or four finest.

There are only two exceptions: the Arsenal job share in 2001-02, when three keepers – an oft-injured Seaman, Richard Wright and Stuart Taylor – made enough appearances to get medals; and United two seasons earlier when, after Schmeichel’s departure, the gloves were donned by Mark Bosnich and Raimond van der Gouw. In each case, the team may have been so good it scarcely mattered who was in goal.

They only had one major title rival: each other. Now it looks more congested and more complicated, a league where a great goalkeeper could prove decisive. With Tottenham looking unlikely champions and United improbable ones, that should favour Arsenal or Chelsea. Unless Karius or Bravo can prove that initial impressions are deceptive.