Russian Grand Prix: Will F1's most predictable race produce a surprise?

In its short F1 life, the Russian Grand Prix has been one of the most predictable races on the calendar.

But that very predictability is what could make F1’s trip to Sochi fascinating this weekend.

If the pecking order is changing in Formula 1, this is the sort of circuit that will prove it.

READ MORE: Hamilton insists his hunger ‘has doubled’ as Vettel challenges him

Mercedes. And more Mercedes

The first Sochi grand prix was in 2014. Mercedes took the top two qualification places and race places, and Merc-powered cars filled the top five slots.

In 2015, Mercedes again dominated, although Nico Rosberg retired with a throttle problem.

In 2016, Mercedes power filled four of the top five places.

In fact, since that first race in 2014, every single F1 lap at Sochi has been led by a Mercedes driver.

Yes, Mercedes have been dominant at most circuits but that’s still a telling statistic.

With its smooth surface, relatively cool track temperatures, and high engine reliance, it’s very much a Merc-friendly track.

But…

Those Maranello fellows

Ferrari are rumoured to have had their engines turned down for Vettel’s victory in Bahrain, because of concerns over the turbo.

Assuming that’s been fixed, it’s unlikely that we’ll see a Mercedes leading every lap this year.

If you were scripting the race, you might have a Merc qualifying first (of course), a first race stint with Hamilton leading (of course) and then a race between team strategists as the pitstops kick in and it all gets interesting. Hopefully.

If Ferrari run Mercedes close in Sochi, then I’d be tempted to stick a sneaky tenner on Vettel for the championship this year.

Their race pace has been excellent and they seem quite comfy sitting behind other cars, waiting for opportunities to pass – not something that Mercedes are masters of.

Kerby rides again

F1 bosses are trying to discourage drivers from using the big run-off areas too freely.

In particular, 5cm speed bumps have been installed 3metres from the track edge at some points, including Turn 3.

They’re fluorescent orange, so you won’t miss them.

Whether the drivers miss them is another matter altogether…

Talking of Turn 3, it’s the highlight of what is, by and large, a dull track.

It’s a 180degree beast, with tight entry and exit, and the drivers will be pulling high g’s in their grippy 2017 cars.

Drivers with not-so-fond memories of Turn 3 include Daniil Kvyat and Sebastian Vettel, who came together twice on this bit of track last year.

Remember that? Kvyat also bumped team-mate Daniel Ricciardo’s car and, within a few days, was being measured up for Toro Rosso overalls as he was unceremoniously dumped from Red Bull and replaced with Max Verstappen.

Kvyat’s cool

But this year sees a very different Daniil in Sochi.

His helmet features a cartoon of him riding a bomb or torpedo, like Slim Pickens in Dr Strangelove.

Asked about it this week, not only did he not dodge the question, he replied: ‘The first thing that comes to my mind when I think about Russia is Sebastian, as in Sebastian Vettel…

‘I like to torpedo Sebastian, it’s my hobby.

‘OK, come on, you all know I’m joking. Let’s get serious now.

‘Maybe the first word that comes to mind should be “Braking”, into Turn 1!’

If he’s as chilled in the car as he is in the interviews, Kvyat could be in for a decent enough weekend at his home grand prix.

Where’s the dictator?

Which one? Vladimir Putin or Bernie Ecclestone?

Will Vlad put in an appearance now Mr E has been sidelined as Chairman Emeritus of F1 (he’s still moaning about that…)?

I ask only because Putin gets a lot of camera time when he rocks up and I prefer to look at cars. Or drivers. Or anything, really.

There should be no need to focus on Putin, with battles at the front of the field and a cracking battle midfield too.

In fact, there’s a fair chance this will be the most entertaining Sochi race so far, Kvyat’s 2016 demolition derby notwithstanding.

McLaren are quietly confident – well, hopeful – that their cars will finish the race, which would in itself be a huge step forwards for the Woking outfit.

In testing after the Bahrain race, McLaren amazed themselves with some long stints and the fourth-fastest time.

Have they turned the corner? If they have, it will be bad news for the team who look after F1 pit radio broadcasts – what will we listen to if Fernando Alonso isn’t going off on one yet again?

Oh yes. Kimi. We can always listen to Kimi.