Spanish GP: Let the Red Bullfight begin

Welcome to Spain, the home of bullfighting, a cruel yet fascinating spectacle in which a young bull’s brief career ends, usually, twitching in the bloodied dust of a raucous public arena.

In the closing stages of a bullfight, the matador is tasked with despatching the injured animal as cleanly and quickly as possible. In F1, the kill comes somewhat earlier in proceedings.

Formula 1’s matador of the moment is Dr Helmut Marko, the man responsible for Red Bull’s impressive driver development programme; his victim, of course, is Daniil Kvyat, the 22-year-old Russian demoted to the Toro Rosso training ground last week.

Who’ll be saying tara to Toro?

As the 2016 Spanish Grand Prix approaches, be in no doubt that Kvyat (pictured with Marko) is now going to be under even more scrutiny at Toro Rosso than he was at Red Bull.

He has to outperform new team-mate Carlos Sainz – who is certainly no slouch – and he has to do it quickly, to maximise his chances of getting an F1 drive outside of the Red Bull herd next year.

If Kvyat needs inspiration to overcome his humiliation, he need only look along the pitlane to newbies Haas, where Romain Grosjean is a reminder that it’s possible to re-establish yourself in F1 even after you’ve spent time out of it completely.

For his part, Sainz has to work at least as hard to get out of the Red Bull family too – his pace may be impressive but his rise has been patchy.

Red Bull are not interested in developing drivers who are solid, reliable, occasionally impressive. Red Bull are interested only in drivers with the right stuff to become World Drivers’ Champions.

And if you don’t think Kvyat and Sainz are made of the same stuff as Vettel, as Hamilton, as Alonso, as Ricciardo, then there is no way Helmut Marko will see them as future champions for Red Bull.

That’s why they’ll be under intense scrutiny – lesser teams, and teams outside of F1, know they will be able to pick up some Toro Rosso talent in the not-too-distant future.

And Dr Marko? Rest assured he’s keeping his sword sharp.

Time to see if you’re fantastic, Max

As for the two Red Bull drivers, well, it’s game on for 2017. Red Bull are confident that rule changes for 2017 will put them back in the F1 hunt.

So, from their perspective, getting Max Verstappen (pictured in front of trophies at the Red Bull HQ) some invaluable top-team experience before next season starts makes sense.

Factor in the worry that a big-name competitor might make a move – or have made a move – for Daniel Ricciardo (who, incidentally, also has experience of coming into a team mid-season) or Verstappen and locking the youngster into a top-tier drive makes even more sense.

Well, as long as Max delivers the goods. And so Ricciardo versus Verstappen will be watched for the rest of the season with fascination, starting with qualifying on Saturday. And Ricciardo is a beast on quali day…

Hands up if you’re worried

It’s hard to imagine that any other team will pull anything quite as dramatic as Red Bull but Ferrari must have eyed the Verstappen move with interest. Have the Maranello bosses been sounding out Ricciardo for next season?

If not, who are they going to chase? One of the Merc pair? Grosjean?

One thing is certain, the Prancing Horse has been left looking flat-footed by the Bull’s bold moves and the Italian team is under intense pressure to get back to the very top.

That can’t be good news for Kimi Raikkonen (pictured), even if he is sitting third in the Drivers’ Championship, and it will keep Vettel focused. It will also pile the pressure on the team as a whole to get reliability sorted, although Ferrari must already be looking to 2017 as their next opportunity to take a title.

And we’re only four races into the longest F1 season in history.

What about the race?

Lots of teams are taking upgrades to the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya, even if they’re not all taking new drivers. But, unless the new parts help in qualifying, it’s unlikely to make much difference, as overtaking is not that easy.

Of more significance will be pitstops. The track is abrasive but the teams look likely to opt for the softest rubber they can run.

The circuit is used for winter testing so drivers are very familiar with the layout, and teams can use this weekend to benchmark any changes they’ve made since the season began, even if conditions are somewhat different to those during testing.

Both Ferrari and Mercedes will be watching reliability closely after their recent scares; although the engine is not as stressed as in the early races of the season, it still has to work hard at what is a fast circuit, and the teams will want to turn the wick down whenever they can.

If anyone’s brakes are going to play up, they’d best hope it doesn’t happen in turn one. There, cars drop from 205mph to 75mph in just over a second, and the drivers ‘submarine’ down into their cockpits as a force of 5.6G presses them against their harnesses.

As for backing a winner, well, Nico Rosberg (pictured with Hamilton) hasn’t lost a race this year but only two other drivers have won the opening five races of a season – Nigel Mansell in 1992 and Michael Schumacher in 2004. Both were crowned champion in those seasons. Four down, Nico…

Lewis Hamilton says his glass is ‘half-full’ and he’s due a change of fortune. That change of fortune will have to involve him qualifying fast and being first into the opening corner, unless Rosberg hits problems. It’s that kind of circuit.

It’s also a kind circuit for Verstappen to make his Red Bull debut at, and it could reward his team for the aerodynamic excellence and kindness to tyres of their cars.

One last thing: over the last nine years, the Spanish Grand Prix has been won by nine different drivers. Even local hero Alonso has taken the top slot just once, as have Rosberg, Hamilton, Vettel and Raikkonen.

After all the shenanigans of the last week, it couldn’t be Red Bull’s weekend, could it? No, that might be too much of a surprise to expect.

But no bigger a surprise than Kvyat being put to the sword…