Supercomputer predicts Euro 2024 winner with Gareth Southgate tipped for ultimate England finale

It's not very often that England go into any major international tournament as the outright favourites but this year may be the year that the 58 years of hurt ends and football comes home.

Having come within a penalty shootout European Championship glory at Wembley Stadium back in 2021, Gareth Southgate and his men have so often been so close to achieving that ultimate success having reached these semi-final and quarter-final stages of the two World Cups either side of their Euros heartbreak three years ago.

The Three Lions have taken a mix of both youthful talent and star experience to Germany with them for the tournament, with Southgate selecting a whole host of players set to make their major tournament debuts for England. Chelsea's Cole Palmer, Manchester United's Kobbie Mainoo, Newcastle United's Anthony Gordon and Crystal Palace midfielder Adam Wharton are all looking to make an impact this summer.

Meanwhile, Harry Kane will lead the line as usual for England as captain with Jordan Pickford, Kieran Trippier, Luke Shaw and John Stones all set to play in their fourth major tournament for the national team. Notable exclusions from the squad included Marcus Rashford, Jack Grealish, James Maddison and Harry Maguire with the latter ruled out with a calf injury before the squad flew to Germany to begin their training camp.

While the loss of Maguire is certainly a blow to their chances of winning the competition this summer, according to Opta's pre-tournament prediction model for Euro 2024, Southgate's side are actually the most likely to lift the Henri Delaunay trophy on July 14 in Berlin as they were given a 19.9% chance of winning the tournament.

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To achieve a more well-rounded picture of who will go on to win the tournament, Opta's prediction model estimates the probability of each match outcome - win, draw or loss - by using betting market odds and team rankings.

The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances, while the model then considers opponent strength and the difficulty of their path to the final by using match outcome probabilities, taking into account the composition of the groups and seedings into the knockout stages.

Despite having England down as favourites to win the tournament, it's not by much as Didier Deschamps' France side that knocked them out of the 2022 World Cup were given a 19.1% chance of winning, just 0.8% less than Southgate's side. In fact, the Opta model predicted the two sides to meet in the semi-finals of the competition in almost 50% of all simulations, with England holding a 48.2% chance of being in the final four to France's 48.1%.

Sitting just behind those two are hosts Germany, who hold a 12.4% chance of winning the tournament on home soil in what would be their first Euros win since 1996. They were handed a 36.5% chance of reaching the semi-final stage, just ahead of Portugal's 33.6% and Spain's 32.3%.

Interestingly, despite Spain having a lower chance of reaching the semi-finals than their Iberian neighbours, they actually have a higher chance of reaching the finals and winning the tournament with the latter percentage being 9.6% in favour of Spain and 9.2% in favour of Portugal.

The Netherlands and Italy both have a 5% chance of winning the tournament while Scotland were given an 8.5% chance of reaching the semi-finals and just a 1% chance of causing the biggest international footballing upset since Greece in 2004.