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How Swansea can beat Chelsea and keep Manchester City’s title dream alive

The league table never lies is a popular aphorism, but it simply isn’t true. Football results are extremely precarious. The story of a season is unreliable – and can easily change.

Chelsea have breezed through the 2016-17 season with the sort of cool efficiency that, since Christmas, has all-but guaranteed them the Premier League title.

You would be hard pushed to find anyone who disagrees with this assessment, and yet the margins of their dominance are remarkably slim.

For example, during a six-match sequence between mid-November and mid-December Antonio Conte’s team won five games by a single goal; if just two of these goals had not gone in – a pass was millimetres wayward, a shot was ever-so-slightly misplaced – then Chelsea would now only be four points clear at the top.

Or, if Chelsea’s 3-1 victory at the Etihad had swung the other way (and it so easily could have in a fascinatingly even, but unstable, contest) then a mere two points would separate Manchester City and Chelsea.

Of course, the reverse is also true, and Chelsea have narrowly missed out on points on numerous occasions. But nevertheless, understanding the volatility of match results shows us that even an eight-point lead at the top is relatively small. In short, there is a lot left to play for this season – and we might just witness a major swing this Saturday.

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Contrary to popular belief, the Premier League title race is far from over. Tactically, Swansea City are well set up to win points at Stamford Bridge this weekend, which would hand a resurgent Manchester City the chance to move to within (at least) six points of the league-leaders. Things could be remarkably tight between the two sides before they go head-to-head in early April.

Swansea City have made a miraculous recovery under the tutelage of world-class coach Paul Clement, whose tactical training (which created some of Europe’s best teams alongside Carlo Ancelotti) has almost instantaneously transformed the Swans into one of the most defensively astute teams in the country.

Wins against Liverpool, Southampton, and Swansea, plus an unlucky 2-1 defeat to a Gabriel Jesus-inspired Manchester City, were defined by total positional organisation. Clement spends hours on the training pitch physically moving his players around, schooling them on how to sit deep and frustrate.

Swansea will be very difficult to break down on Saturday, then, not least because Antonio Conte’s team do not relish playing defensive outfits. They squeezed past Middlesbrough, West Brom, Sunderland, and Crystal Palace in a series of 1-0 wins, and were held to a 1-1 draw by Burnley at Turf Moor a fortnight ago.

Eden Hazard, in particular, struggles to create chances when faced with a brick wall of bodies while the wing-backs are understandably stumped when space is restricted in the final third.

Unlike most of England’s big clubs, Chelsea are essentially a counter-attacking team. Conte lures opponents out of their shell before hitting quickly on the break, using the pace of their wing-backs and sharp one-touch passing of Hazard and Pedro to get in-behind the defence. Swansea are too disciplined to allow this to happen, which could see them steal points.

What’s more, the pattern of Clement’s counter-attacks should be capable of exploiting Chelsea’s two primary defensive vulnerabilities.

There are few holes in Conte’s brilliantly-drilled 3-4-2-1, but Burnley discovered something that Stoke City had eluded to when they almost shocked the Blues on New Year’s Eve: long balls, that drop just behind N’Golo Kante, work well.

Peter Crouch and Ashley Barnes both looked dangerous thanks to their respective team-mates’ ability to quickly distribute long passes into a surprisingly wide gap between Kante and the Chelsea back three; the solidity of their 3-2 brick wall has masked a small chink in the armour. Fernando Llorente is the perfect hold-up forward to hold possession in this area and distribute to Gylfi Sigurdsson on the left flank, where Victor Moses is often absent. This is the second vulnerability in Chelsea’s system.

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The Iceland international has three goals and two assists in his last five matches, and this good form should seriously worry Chelsea fans. Moses remains a slight liability when attempting to track back from a failed Chelsea attack, which may leave Sigurdsson with too much space. A Swansea win at Stamford Bridge is not as unlikely as it seems.

Chelsea are still strong favourites for the title. Their lack of European competition works in their favour, and Conte’s personality will not allow anyone in the dressing room to slack off as the season winds down. Man City, meanwhile, have plenty of midweek matches to come, plus they still have Manchester United, Arsenal, and Liverpool to come. Their head-to-head with Chelsea is at Stamford Bridge.

But nevertheless, it would be premature to assume Chelsea already have the title sewn up. Football is a game of extremely fine margins; Swansea are capable of causing an upset on Saturday that, believe it or not, would put the Premier League title back in Man City’s sights.