Talking Horses: Saturday’s best bets for Sandown and Aintree

Sire De Grugy can outlast Un De Sceaux in the Tingle Creek Chase while Byron Flyer and Le Mercurey could be worth backing at Aintree

If individual ability were the only factor to be considered, Un De Sceaux would be easily the most likely winner of this Tingle Creek Chase. Willie Mullins’s impetuous speedster has enormous raw talent and I acknowledge he is the fastest of these six runners, at least over a short distance.

But the race may not work out very well for him with Ar Mad in the field. Both seem like natural front-runners who are likely to set each other alight down the back stretch, with the clear risk of teeing the race up for anything that can stay within striking distance.

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Left alone in front, Un De Sceaux was an impressive winner at Ascot in January. When he had to fight for the lead, in the Champion Chase and again here in April, he was eventually beaten, albeit by the now-retired Sprinter Sacre.

Sire De Grugy (3.00) was behind Un De Sceaux at Ascot, Cheltenham and Sandown, so it is mildly disappointing to be getting just 7-2 about him turning that form around. The reason he may be able to do it is that his form seemed to tail off in the second half of last term, when the Irish horse kept beating him.

In December Sire De Grugy was peaking, out-battling Special Tiara to win last year’s Tingle Creek and then running Sprinter Sacre to three parts of a length at Kempton. Back around this track, where his four wins include three Grade Ones, he could be in line for another memorable success.

1.35 Aintree: I fancied Alvarado for his Cheltenham reappearance and felt he finished that race, in which he was sixth, with something left in him. His jockey has a sympathetic style, so I may have been deceived. And one should always be cautious about a horse that has not won anything for three years. But he did enough that day to suggest the ability is still there and he looks nicely handicapped; rather too well handicapped, since he will probably miss the cut for the Grand National if connections cannot get him to win something before early February.

This race over the National fences may be the one on which they have set their minds, having presumably satisfied themselves that he is all the fitter for that first run of the season. I think this course may ride a bit softer than the official good to soft, which will bring his stamina into the argument. The 10-1 looks fair, while 18-1 each-way is not bad about Dare To Endeavour, last year’s runner-up, who is only 1lb higher.

1.55 Sandown: Having been thoroughly put in my place for daring to oppose Altior on his fencing debut at Kempton a fortnight ago, I am not keen to lead with my chin once again. He bounced round there and this similar circuit should also show him to good effect.

2.10 Aintree: The winner of four out of six most recent handicap hurdles, Byron Flyer was back in top form when scoring at Doncaster a week ago. That was the first time he was partnered by the useful 7lb claimer who is aboard once more here and an extra 6lb may not stop them. The five-year-old was the subject of late support last time, suggesting he was expected to do better than on his reappearance at Chepstow, when he trailed home last.

2.25 Sandown: Sharper for reappearing at Wincanton, Zubayr should get credit for going well for a long way that day against a race-fit rival of some quality. A bit more dig in the ground this time could help. Paul Nicholls appears to believe this four-year-old has some slack in his handicap rating.

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2.40 Aintree: Nicholls may again be on the mark here with Le Mercurey, who is being unjustly overlooked at 8-1 in a small field. Twice a Grade Two winner as a novice, he reappeared in a Down Royal race in which his trainer has an excellent record. He was third and probably needed the run, as a few of his stablemates did at the time, but the form looks strong, the fourth having won next time while the second would have won but for a last-fence fall. This looks a strong race but Many Clouds will surely need the run, while Irish Cavalier and Cocktails At Dawn may both prefer a sounder surface.

3.15 Aintree: From a yard hitting peak form Seefood can build on his emphatic Musselburgh success last month, his first since switching stables. He had been dropped 9lb in two runs before that win and even now is not quite back to his former rating. The handicapper may soon be wincing at his rashness.

3.30 Sandown: It is a couple of years since Doing Fine won but he is back down to the same rating he had then and can be forgiven a few of his defeats, having spent last season with a yard that struggled for form. He is now with the in-form Neil Mulholland and his hurdles reappearance in October suggested he would be one to look for next time.