Talking Horses: Stage Star can shine but why so few New Year runners?

The traditional New Year’s Day card at Cheltenham – which is also the first of 170 “Premier” racedays in a new top tier for the sport in 2024 – has attracted just 36 runners for its six events over jumps, with only half a dozen horses, the smallest field this century, declared for the most valuable race on the card, the £100,000 Paddy Power New Year’s Day Chase.

It does, however, offer a rare chance to see a Grade One winner attempting to give weight away in a handicap, as Stage Star, who moved to the top of the market for the Ryanair Chase in March when successful in the big handicap chase at the November meeting, looks to follow up off an 11lb higher mark.

Stage Star was running off 155 last time out, and had 11st 7lb on his back in a race where The Real Whacker – like Stage Star, a Grade One-winning novice at the 2023 Cheltenham Festival – shouldered top weight of 12st.

Stage Star’s impressive success was an achievement in itself – he was the first handicap chase winner off 155+ in 2023 – and a victory on Monday would elevate him into even more rarefied company.

Just nine horses have defied a mark of 166 or above in a handicap chase since the start of 2003, with Greaneteen, who took the Haldon Gold Cup off 168 in November 2022, the only one to do so since Sire De Grugy in February 2015. Seventeen horses have tried and failed in the same period.

Southwell 11.54 Gardener 12.29 Val Dancer 1.04 Ballybeen 1.39 Rare Edition 2.14 Good Look Charm 2.49 The Newest One 3.24 Dancing Harry

Cheltenham 12.20 Champagne Twist 12.55 Matata 1.30 Inch House 2.05 Stage Star (nb) 2.40 Butch 3.15 Bob Olinger 3.50 Kel Du Large

Exeter 12.25 Tango Tara 1.00 Danton 1.35 Royal Jewel 2.10 Geezer Rockstar 2.45 Leissieres Express 3.20 Bolsover Bill 3.55 Saint Anapolino

Musselburgh 12.35 Teorie 1.10 Afadil 1.45 Cuban Cigar (nap) 2.20 Frere D’Armes 2.55 Baron Briggs 3.30 Call Me Harry

Catterick Bridge 12.45 Let’s Go Joe 1.20 Restandbethankful 1.55 Ideal Du Tabert 2.30 Jimmy Chou Pecos Aa 3.05 Skyhill 3.39 Abbeyhill

Newcastle 2.00 Enthrallment 2.35 Mercurius Power 3.10 Storm Catcher 3.45 Fantastic Fox 4.15 Shades Of Summer 4.45 Bazball 5.15 Batal Dubai

These are daunting stats for favourite-backers, but Stage Star (2.05) won with something to spare last time and is likely to come on for the outing, in a race which should further underline his claims to be the best two-and-a-half-mile chaser in Britain or Ireland.

Cheltenham 12.55 Matata made a very promising start to his chasing career at Ffos Las in October, winning eased down by 10 lengths, and a 9lb rise is unlikely to stop him here.

Musselburgh 1.10 Freddie Gingell’s 5lb claim could be enough to swing this the way of Afadil, who could also find a little improvement for this step up in trip.

Cheltenham 1.30 Inch House has made an excellent start to his career over fences and has been found an ideal opportunity to continue his progress against opponents that, for the most part, are far more exposed.

Musselburgh 1.45 A 3lb rise after a narrow win over track and trip last time looks more than fair for Cuban Cigar, given that the second and fifth horses home there were both successful next time.

Musselburgh 2.20 A mistake three out could well have cost Frere D’Armes the spoils at Ascot last time and this looks an ideal opportunity to make amends off just a 1lb higher mark.

Cheltenham 2.40 The most competitive event on the card and Butch could emerge as the best of the less-exposed runners after a narrow win from a useful field at the October meeting here.

Cheltenham 3.15 The signs from Bob Olinger were much more promising last time out and the former Festival winner could have a touch too much class for Marie’s Rock if he can build on that success.