The Numbers Do Lie in Fantasy Baseball: Luck impacting these 5 starting pitchers

A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy categories doesn't always tell the whole story of how a player is performing. Dalton Del Don attempts to identify recent misleading numbers that are worth a closer look.

Yes ... The Numbers Do Lie.

Tyler Glasnow’s 4.97 ERA is a lie

Glasnow suddenly sits with an ugly ERA after a blowup Tuesday in which two of his three fly balls allowed left the yard. The outing also included 13 whiffs over just 4.1 innings and a 2.53 xFIP. Glasnow didn’t get a proper spring training after suffering a strained oblique, and four of his five starts since returning have come against offenses that rank top-10 in wRC+. Despite the tough schedule, Glasnow sports a top-five K%, and only Spencer Strider has a better CSW among qualified starters. He has arguably the best stuff in baseball and will benefit from Tampa Bay’s league-best offense and an extreme pitcher’s park, so ignore his current ERA. I’d treat a healthy Glasnow as a top-three fantasy starter moving forward.

Emmet Sheehan’s hitless debut was a lie

Sheehan didn’t allow a hit over six scoreless innings during his MLB debut and has become a popular waiver wire add. He had dominant minor league numbers and will benefit pitching for the Dodgers, but his MLB debut wasn’t nearly as encouraging as his box score might suggest. His SwStr% (4.5) was one of the lowest among nearly 2,000 qualified starts this season, and Sheehan’s stuff took a dramatic dip, likely because of the different baseballs being used in Double-A.

The rookie also had a lowly 13.3 GB% and a high 42.7 Ball% in the outing, which is equal to a 5.7 BB/9 (control was his main area of concern in the minors). His CSW during his debut would rank easily last among all qualified starters this season. Sheehan’s six scoreless innings came with a 6.45 xFIP. He certainly may be capable but just be warned he’ll need to pitch significantly better to experience continued MLB success.

Aaron Nola’s 4.66 ERA is a lie

Nola has been a fantasy disappointment this year, but his 4.66 ERA comes with a 3.65 xERA and a 1.10 WHIP. His strikeouts are down, but he ranks top-10 in CSW (sandwiched between Shohei Ohtani and Luis Castillo) and is among the league leaders in whiffs over the last 300 pitches thrown, so more Ks should be coming. Nola’s 61.9 LOB% is bottom-five among starters this season, but he should start pitching like he has throughout his career with runners on base (73.1 LOB%) moving forward. Nola also has rather stark ERA home/road splits during his career (3.23/4.14) and just 40% of his starts have come at Citizens Bank Park this year. Nola’s ERA is due for major regression with better luck and a schedule that starts easing up after Wednesday’s matchup with the Braves.

Bryan Woo’s 7.30 ERA is a lie

Woo’s 7.30 ERA is accompanied by a 2.32 xFIP and a 16.0 SwStr% that would rank behind only Spencer Strider among qualified starters this season. He’s throwing his fastball 77% of the time but locating it well and also has a developing slider. Woo has an innings ceiling, having already matched last season’s total, but he’s locked in the Mariners rotation now. Seattle has suppressed BABIP more than any park this season, and Woo’s peripherals through three starts put him among the best starters in baseball. He’s available in 90% of Yahoo leagues.

Andrew Abbott’s 0.00 ERA and 1.08 WHIP are lies

Obviously, any pitcher with a zero ERA is going to start allowing runs, but Abbott’s peripherals are scary. He’s somehow started his MLB career with 17.2 scoreless innings over three starts despite a 12:9 K:BB ratio. Abbott has a .200 BABIP (would be second-lowest among qualified SPs) despite allowing an average exit velocity (92.3 mph) that would be second-highest among qualified starters. And good luck continuing not allowing homers while playing in a park that’s increased long balls by an MLB-high 49% over the last three seasons. Abbott had a 4.63 FIP in Triple-A this year and currently sports a 5.78 SIERA. THE BAT projects a 4.96 ERA rest of season. Abbott will be a prime sell-high candidate if he takes advantage of Wednesday’s favorable home start against the Rockies.