Euro 2016: Group A analysis and predictions

With Euro 2016 looming large the football world will come to a stand still as 24 nations pit their wits against one another for, arguably, the second biggest international prize of them all. As France plays host to a plethora of world-class footballers from across the continent, UEFA’s first expanded edition promises to be an enthralling spectacle.

In the coming six-part series I will be analyzing each of the teams participating in the tournament with a holistic approach to each group. I will be shedding specific focus on the teams that I predict will make an impact, highlighting my expectations in terms of results, lineups and the star players expected to make a splash. Ladies and gents, lo and behold Group A.

Runaway leaders:

France

France enter a tournament as standout favorites for the first time in 14 years (the last time was in World Cup 2002 when they were dismally knocked out of the group stage) and face the ominous task of putting to bed the record that not a single hosting country of the previous eight international football competitions (Euros and World Cups only) has managed to lift the ultimate trophy. The last country to actually do that was, ironically, France (back in 1998) - so the omens are good.

If we had asked Didier Deschamps to hand-pick his ideal group prior to last year’s draw, I am pretty sure he would have selected two out of the three nations (if not all three!) that did indeed come out of the hat. Didier Deschamps’ squad, despite some notable absentees, are still the strongest team on paper and should, complacency notwithstanding, comfortably top this group. The absences of Raphael Varane and Karim Benzema in particular should be keenly felt, however their squad does look formidable and contains an array of superstars that have had breathtaking seasons to say the least. The likes of Hugo Lloris, N’Golo Kante, Paul Pogba, Dimitri Payet, Antoine Griezmann and Anthony Martial have all had stunning seasons with varied degrees of success.

If these players are to carry their club form onto the continental scene, there’s no reason why Les Bleus cannot match their last heroic performance 16 years ago. This is a team oozing class and effervescing with potential, and in Didier Deschamps, have a disciplinarian World Cup winning captain to keep potential inflated egos in check (so expect no repeat of recent dressing room fall-outs).

Strengths:

Difference makers, strength in depth and trump cards, in that particular order.

There is simply too much quality in this France team for them to fail, and in the likes of Paul Pogba and Antoine Griezmann, they now have two players on par with the very best in the world.

The latter has improved on leaps and bounds since his move to Atletico Madrid and Diego Simeone has moulded him into a tireless and tenacious forward who is just as capable of tracking back and helping out his midfielders as he is of galloping forward at pace and attempting the sublime.

Paul Pogba, is another, whose every touch of the ball will be heavily scrutinized this summer. His elegance, athleticism and directness, coupled with an expected free-roaming role, should allow the eccentric number 15 to showcase his true potential. But again the question is, is he worth the hype? Fans the world over are about to find out.

That being said, Dimitri Payet for me is the player to look out for. This is a player with outstanding technical ability, a player who has bamboozled defenders in both France and England (people forget that before his exploits at West Ham this was a player who had amassed a record number of assists at Lille) yet has always been on the periphery of Deschamps’ French team. With a midfield comprising more grit than innovation, the onus will be on Payet to deliver the final ball.

Some may argue that France’s strength in depth is their biggest asset with players such as Yohan Cabaye, Moussa Sissoko and Morgan Schneiderlin more than able deputies (expect more than the odd appearance from the former two in specific).

And of course if worse comes to worse, who else to bring on to turn a game on its head than two of the rising stars at the forefront of European superstardom? Anthony Martial and Kingsley Coman are the two aces up Deschamps’ sleeve, and their directness, pace and slickness (and delivery in the latter’s case) can add much needed energy to dull and lacklustre games.

Weakness:

If I were to highlight a glaring weakness in this team, it would definitely be their fragile defence. With arguably the team’s best two defenders dropping out due to injuries (Raphael Varane and Aymeric Laporte) in addition to the likes of Mamadou Sakho, Kurt Zouma and Jeremy Mathieu, France’s extremely threadbare back-line is desperately crying out for quality. Laurent Koscielny is now all but affirmed a starting berth and either one of Eliaquim Mangala (who has admittedly improved during the second half of the season) or Adil Rami will most probably partner him, leaving Deschamps’ back-line prone to the odd lapse in concentration.

Expected Lineup

How will they fare?

I’m expecting France to steamroll through their group. Nine points should easily be attainable although their final game versus the Swiss could potentially be a banana-skin. Should they comfortably top their group, a favourable draw then awaits them in the knockout rounds. First up is the fourth best 3^rd placed team (potentially either Sweden or Russia) and then one of Wales or Austria in the quarter-finals (both very winnable ties in my opinion). Where they go from here is though is up for debate and a semi-final against Germany could potentially be their first (and biggest) test. A final then awaits against the potential winners of the corresponding ties (most likely one of Spain, Portugal or England).

Expected Finish: Winners

The contenders:

Switzerland-

Despite never reaching a knockout round in the competition’s history (finishing bottom of their group in their last 3 appearances) Switzerland are this group’s unfancied contenders in my opinion.

 Strengths:

On paper, Vladimir Petkovic’s outfit are a highly-technical and well-drilled team. Xherdan Shaqiri is their number one star attraction; their talisman, a player just as capable of pulling the strings as he is of unleashing a ferocious shot. He is the player with the most starts, goals and assists during qualification and, his Stoke City inconsistent form notwithstanding, could be the real difference maker in whether this talented Swiss team can make it far.

There is also a certain aura about this Swiss team, and a team comprising an agile shot-stopper in Yann Sommer, an under-rated defender in Fabian Schar, an indefatigable right back in Stephan Lichtensteiner, a world class fullback and set piece specialist in Ricardo Rodriguez and, most importantly, a telepathic duo in Grant Xhaka and Xherdan Shaqiri (since their days at Basel) is a team that does have the potential to wreak havoc.

One to watch here is Breel Embolo, an up and coming Basel prodigy, currently taking the Super League by storm. Just as competent as an inside forward (left) as he is as a lone penalty box predator, expect the young teenage sensation to make a lasting impact if called upon.

Weakness:

It is down the centre of the team where the Swiss look most shaky. Despite a very competent Fabian Schar marshalling the back four, an extremely erratic Johan Djourou might undo the good work.

Similarly, the likes of Gelson Fernandes, Valon Behrami or Blerim Dzemaili (two of which are expected to start) offer little to no protection to a midfield and two fullbacks marauding forward at the first time of asking.

Finally, I’m expecting Haris Seferovic to be preferred over Breel Embolo up front- again not exactly the world class firepower a Swiss team can rely on to deliver the goods.

Expected Lineup:

How will they fare?

Runners up in their group, at best. Could all come down to whether they’re able to penetrate an impregnable Romanian defence. In the second round I am expecting them to come up against Poland in a tie that could really go either way. If the Swiss were to snatch a win here, a potential quarter-final tie against Spain awaits. This will probably be too much of an ask.

Expected Finish: Round of 16 exit to Poland.

The Minnows:

Romania-

There is something eerily familiar about this Romanian outfit and their defensive record. For qualification stats, goals conceded: two. Eight clean sheets in the process. A very compact 4-2-3-1. By and large the best defensive team in Europe with very few players plying their trade in European top level competition. Their strength? Dead-ball delivery; with Razvan Rat (left back) and Gabriel Torje (right winger) specifically two players to keep your eyes on. Ultimate weakness? Put simply, scoring goals. Now how does this sound familiar? Read Greece 2004.

How will they fare?

They will most likely fail to score the goals to put them through and I am expecting them to finish 3^rd in their group. Not enough points to take them through as best-placed teams.

Albania-

Debutants Albania are another team with a defensive rigidity about them. Again their qualification stats are impressive. No goals conceded on their travels. They line up in an ultra-cautious 4-5-1 with a focus on set piece delivery and long shots. Again their Achilles’ heel is scoring goals (they scored a meagre 7 goals during their qualification with 5 of those coming against bottom side Armenia). Elseid Hysaj in particular stands out; a tough tackler who started all but one game for Napoli last season.

How will they fare?

They are there to make up the numbers. Highly unlikely for them to garner anything more than a point. Again, not enough to take them through.

Final Group Standings: