Three into two will not go as race for Champions League enters final sprint

Manchester United: Pts 63, goal difference +28

Sunday’s fixture Leicester (a) What they need A draw, though defeat will suffice if Chelsea lose

Since the restart, Ole Gunnar Solskjær has named virtually the same team in each of Manchester United’s eight Premier League games. The manager was forced to change at left-back when Luke Shaw broke down against Southampton 10 days ago and he rested Aaron Wan-Bissaka against West Ham on Wednesday only to bring him on at half-time. Paul Pogba and Mason Greenwood played only as substitutes against Tottenham in the reopening game and have since been ever present while a rejuvenated Nemanja Matic, a substitute at Spurs, has since missed the starting XI only once – at Crystal Palace last Thursday.

Solskjær has tremendous faith in his best side, who have carried United to within touching distance of a Champions League place and he has benefited greatly from the return to fitness of Pogba and Marcus Rashford, not to mention the drive of the January signing Bruno Fernandes. They have played some lovely football, at times.

But there is little doubt that Solskjær does not have the same confidence in his reserve players. United were off colour when he made wholesale changes for the FA Cup win at Norwich and awful when he made tweaks for the exit from the competition against Chelsea on Sunday.

Related: Manchester United can forget a title challenge with a defence like this | Jonathan Liew

It has come to feel as though Solskjær dare not rotate – adding depth has to be the priority for the transfer window – and his favourite XI have taken the strain. The signs in the past four games – apart from the last half-hour at Palace – have been that they are feeling it. Tired minds and bodies mean less of the explosive and incisive football that Solskjær wants and more of the dreaded side-to-side stuff that is United at their worst. They are running on fumes, dragging themselves to the finish line. Sunday calls for one last push. DH

Chelsea: Pts 63, goal difference +13

Sunday’s fixture Wolves (h) What they need A point, though defeat will suffice if Leicester lose

It is the number that blots Frank Lampard’s debut season at Chelsea – 54 Premier League goals conceded – and, to put it into perspective, the club have only twice let in more during the competition’s history. That was the 55 goals conceded under Ruud Gullit in 1996-97 and Glenn Hoddle in 1994-95. And, of course, Lampard has one game to go.

A clean sheet against Wolves would avoid an unwanted record but it would bring so much more because a draw would guarantee Chelsea a top-four finish. Defeat could mean fifth and the Europa League. Not that Lampard would play for the 0-0. It is not his style. Like Gullit and Hoddle, he wants to make the game, to play on the front foot and what has pleased the Chelsea support this season is how Lampard has instilled a spirit of adventure – drawing in part on young players from the academy. When it has clicked, it has been thrilling; the basis for optimism in the longer term.

The reason for mentioning the goals against is that it provides the jeopardy. Chelsea have been vulnerable to the counterattack (Wolves’s stock-in-trade), not to mention set pieces, and defensive wobbles can see them abruptly lose their way.

Lampard will feel emboldened by how his team have responded when the pressure has been at its most extreme – most obviously in both league games against Tottenham, which they entered on erratic runs but won convincingly. They also rose to the occasion to beat United last Sunday.

The club have backed Lampard in the market by closing deals for Hakim Ziyech and Timo Werner, with Kai Havertz expected to follow, but no Champions League football would stand to affect any further recruitment moves. DH

Leicester City: Pts 62, goal difference +28

Final fixture Manchester United (h) What they need A win, or a draw if Chelsea lose

Before the season, not even Leicester expected to be in the top-four shakeup when the day of reckoning came. But after a brilliant start they got into a position where Champions League qualification seemed almost certain, 15 points clear of the team in fifth at the turn of the year. Now they are fifth owing to a second half of the campaign characterised by inconsistency caused by injuries, youth and subconscious complacency followed by hobbling anxiety.

Related: Cybersecurity at risk after hackers try to sabotage Premier League transfer deal

They will face United without at least four key players: the injured James Maddison, Ricardo Pereira and Ben Chilwell plus the suspended Caglar Soyuncu. Maddison is their most creative influence and the other three make up most of their first-choice defence, meaning this is a particularly cruel time for Harry Maguire to ride into town.

Rodgers has been forced to improvise in recent weeks, fielding 19-year-old Luke Thomas at left wing-back as he switched to a three-man central defence including Ryan Bennett and 36-year-old Wes Morgan. They all played very well when the pressure was on in their last home match – a crucial 2-0 win over Sheffield United – but they were taken apart by Tottenham last week. If United’s attackers are on form, Kasper Schmeichel will have to be in superhero mode to keep a clean sheet.

So Leicester will probably have to score at least twice, which they have managed only twice in eight matches since the restart. They can certainly trouble United’s still skittish defence if they bring the vibrancy and intensity they showed against Chris Wilder’s team a week ago. They will need the sometimes devastating, sometimes frustrating Harvey Barnes and Youri Tielemans to be on song, and the same goes for Ayoze Pérez, who has generally disappointed since his summer arrival. A glorious finale to the season is still possible. PD