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View from the Baseline: Nadal is a clear favourite to win Roland Garros, but who can shock him?
As we head closer to Roland Garros, it looks like nobody can stop Rafael Nadal from winning his 10th title at his favourite Grand Slam, after becoming the first player in the open era to win a tournament ten times, and he did twice in Monte Carlo and Barcelona.
So, isn’t there any room for shocks in Ronald Garros 2017? My personal answer is yes there is, as despite I put Nadal as a clear favourite to win the title with 50% of all odds, but I don’t see him unbeatable as he was in 2008, and I will be listing players who have a chance to shock him and win the title, a list that won’t have the World number 1 ‘s – Andy Murray – name on it!.
Novak Djokovic
After completing this career Grand Slam and becoming the holder of all four majors – a feat no-one since Rod Laver, Federer included, had ever managed, Djokovic has hit the wall. He lost his world No 1 ranking and not won another slam. After a terrible start of the season, Djokovic took an extreme step to sack all his team including Marian Vajda, Djokovic’s mentor and father figure since the age of 19, a decision that he described as “shock therapy”.
But despite all those struggles, the defending champions remains a contender to win the title this year, not only because of what he has shown previously on clay courts but also because he is one of very few players who can get into Nadal’s head and have a mental edge against him when they go head to head.
Next 2 weeks will be crucial to Djokovic to build confidence as he will be trying to defend his title in Madrid, and also his decision regarding his next coach – if this happens before Roland Garros – may play a factor to get back to winning mentality, especially with the big names emerging as candidates like Andre Agassi, Mats Wilander and Pete Sampras!
Chance to win the title: 25%
Stanislas Wawrinka
Wawrinka hasn’t won a tournament since securing his third career Grand Slam title at last year’s U.S. Open, but he’s had a solid season. He reached the semifinals at the Australian Open and the final at Indian Wells, falling to Federer in each. Now he’s working himself into clay-court form.
“Stan The Man” is a big moments player, so looking at his results prior to Roland Garros won’t be always relevant. In 2015, he came into Paris after losing early in Geneva to 74th-ranked Federico Delbonis. Before that, his clay-court season had consisted of losses in a semifinal and twice in the Round of 16, then got his legs moving in Paris and started crunching those heavy, runaway-boulder groundstrokes that only he can hit, to claim the French Open title.
Can he do it again? Nadal and defending champion Djokovic remain the favourites. But if you’re looking for a not-so-long shot to get behind, Stan the Man should be your man.
Chance to win the title: 15%
Roger Federer
Personally, I was one of those who thought that Federer shouldn’t play Roland Garros and should keep himself 100% fit for Wimbledon, where he has a real chance to win the title, but after he confirmed his participation in Roland Garros this year, I can give him a slim chance to win it.
Federer has played just four events this year, so he’ll certainly enter the French Open well-rested, both mentally and physically. Of course, he doesn’t have much left to prove in his career, but no one can argue against the fact that the one-time Roland Garros champion still has work left to do in Paris given that he didn’t play any clay tournaments this year, but with a good draw in the early rounds, he can have a chance to get a good rhythm.
Another important factor that gives Federer a chance to win the title, is that, he clearly got the monkey off his back and he is no longer losing the mental game against Nadal, after beating him 3 consecutive times this season, definitely playing against Nadal on clay is a different story, but still, this was always a great factor to Federer losses against the Spaniard.
Chance to win the title: 5%
Dominic Thiem
Dominic Thiem is the most established player of the young guns in tennis and a Roland Garros champion in the making. He reached the semi-final at Roland Garros last year, and given what he has shown so far this year, it won’t be a big surprise if he can match last year’s achievement, and may to go all the way to win the title.
Thiem has been one of the few members of the new generation to regularly rack up the silverware and to do so on clay: six of his eight titles and eight of his 11 finals have come on the surface.
He already has a clay court title in the bag after winning Rio de Janeiro’s title against Pablo Carreño Busta, and he also reached the final in Barcelona before losing to Rafael Nadal in straight sets, and what he showed in the first set of that final, can give an idea on what he is able to do against the best players in the world on clay.
Chance to win the title: 5%
Read More: View from the Baseline: Federer, Wawrinka and the top one-handed backhand players on the ATP Tour
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