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Week 5 fantasy football power rankings and full slate guide: James Conner set to rebound
Here, I’ll run through every Week 5 game and rank them from best to worst from a fantasy perspective. We’ll also look at betting lines to project possible winners and game script, and examine one key matchup to watch in each game.
1. Atlanta Falcons (1-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2-1)
Total: 57.5
Favorite: Steelers (-3)
Few would have predicted that these two teams would enter the second quarter of the NFL season with just two combined wins. The Falcons and Steelers are thus far two of the biggest underachievers, largely due to injuries or lack of performance by their defenses. You can’t turn your nose up at either offense, however. Atlanta has been particularly potent, ranking top-five in yards per drive, points per drive and drive success rate. The emergence of stellar rookie receiver Calvin Ridley to pair with the NFL’s leader in receiving yards Julio Jones has made Matt Ryan’s passing attack remarkably efficient. The Steelers offense hasn’t scored at that clip but is top-five in plays and time of possession per drive — they just need to up their efficiency. It’s easy to see why this game is not only the highest projected total of the week, but was quickly bet up from its opening over/under. Fantasy players should break ties in favor of players in this contest and explore building the admittedly expensive game stacks here for DFS.
Matchup to watch
With the report that Le’Veon Bell intends to return to the Steelers in Week 7, it appears as if James Conner will get just two more cracks at the solo lead back role in Pittsburgh’s offense. Conner has still held a massive share of the backfield workload, handling 73.9 percent of the team’s carries; more than any other back in the league. The Steelers just played in negative game script too often to truly get their run game going, with their drives starting with an average deficit of 1.25 points. Pittsburgh is a three-point favorite in this spot and if they can at least stay out of a hole, Conner has a favorable matchup. Atlanta allows the most catches to running backs for the fourth-straight season and gives up 4.2 yards per carry to the position. The DFS masses may choose to avoid Conner ($27) after he disappointed while carrying massive ownership and expectations after his Week 1 eruption.
2. Oakland Raiders (1-3) at Los Angeles Chargers (2-2)
Total: 53.5
Favorite: Chargers (-5)
The AFC West face-off brings the second-highest total of the Week 5 slate with both squads expected to clear 24 points. The Raiders offense seemed to finally hit their stride last week, dropping 45 points on the Browns in an overtime win. The Chargers offense has been on fire all season, ranking eighth in yards per drive and sixth in points per drive. We expected Oakland’s defense to struggle and they’ve lived up to the billing, ranking last in sack rate (3.6) and giving up the second-highest yards per carry (5.7) to running backs. The Chargers defensive struggles were less expected but have been just as pronounced. Los Angeles sits in the bottom-five in yards per attempt (8.7) and touchdown rates (7.5 percent) allowed. If daily fantasy gamers don’t want to pay the iron price to stack up the Falcons and Steelers game, this is the second-best alternative on the slate.
Matchup to watch
The Los Angeles Chargers came into 2018 with a cornerback trio of Casey Hayward, Trevor Williams and Desmond King, all of who had strong 2017 campaigns. It hasn’t amounted to much help this year. The Chargers have allowed the third-highest yards per target (9.8), seventh-highest catch rate (69.4 percent), third-most touchdowns (eight). All three of their top corners have given up a passer rating in the triple digits, per Pro Football Focus. The absence of Joey Bosa is a possible explanation, as are dates with the Rams and Chiefs. Whatever the reason, the matchup combined with this lofty total make Amari Cooper and Jordy Nelson viable plays. Cooper has averaged 75 yards per game against the Chargers in his career and Nelson has eight targets and a score in back-to-back games.
3. Washington Redskins (2-1) at New Orleans Saints (3-1)
Total: 52.5
Favorite: Saints (-6)
New Orleans ranks No. 3 in yards and points per drive this season. We know they can score on anyone, especially in the Superdome. The question is whether Washington can come out of their shell enough to join the dance into the projected shootout. The team ranks 30th in seconds per play in neutral situations this year, preferring to operate a conservative passing offense with a power run foundation. While Washington will be tempted to control the clock with Adrian Peterson (who is in a #RevengeGame) if the Saints build a lead, Alex Smith and company should have no problem ripping up this defense. Despite allowing just the 12th-highest average depth of target (8.5), New Orleans gives up the highest yards per pass attempt (10.9) on the year. Washington’s pass defense is an x-factor here and makes taking them and the points tempting. Only Baltimore’s defense gave up a lower adjusted yards per attempt in the first month of the season. But while they rank as the third-best pass defense in Football Outsiders DVOA, they check in as the 31st ranked run defense.
Matchup to watch
The New Orleans cornerback group has been an utter nightmare this season. Marshon Lattimore, P.J. Williams and Ken Crawley have all allowed catch rates north of 70 percent this season, per Pro Football Focus. Crawley, in particular, has been a liability allowing an outrageous 86 percent of the targets in his coverage to be caught. How do you trust any of Washington’s receivers, though? Jamison Crowder is a potential play while drawing coverage from Williams but has been anything but the target monster we hoped as Alex Smith’s slot receiver, seeing just 12 looks in three games. If you’re looking for a deep dart throw as a “what-the-heck flex” or in DFS, Paul Richardson ($20) does lead the team with 194 air yards on the season. He should line up against Crawley on the majority of his routes.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-0)
Total: 49
Favorite: Chiefs (-3)
While this isn’t one of the five games with a 50-plus point total, it still comes with plenty of offensive appeal. Kansas City ranks No. 1 in points per drive. We know what they’re capable of. On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs defense could entice Jacksonville out of their offensive shell. With Leonard Fournette out for this contest, the Jaguars may already be more than willing to dance. It may just be a “splits happen” situation but so far through two years Blake Bortles has been noticeably better without Fournette in the lineup. Not only did his pass attempts spike in the five games without his top back since 2017, Bortles averaged a 65.7 percent completion rate and saw his yards per attempt go up by 2.02. He averaged a 1.8-0.2 touchdown to interception ratio in games without Fournette compared to 1.27 to 1.0 without. Going against a defense that’s allowing 328.5 yards per game (second-highest), not only is Bortles on the sleeper radar, he could help push this game over the 49-point projected total.
Matchup to watch
If the Jaguars are going to push this game into a higher-scoring affair, their wide receivers will have to do work. The Chiefs defense has been whooped by pass-catchers of all shapes and sizes through four games. Kansas City has allowed the second most air yards and most yards after the catch among all NFL defenses. Jacksonville’s top slot receiver Dede Westbrook is dicing teams up with the ball in his hands this season. He carries a mere 5.9 average depth of target but leads the team with 172 yards after the catch. Kansas City’s top slot corner, Kendall Fuller, has allowed a 94.6 passer rating in slot coverage, per Pro Football Focus. Keelan Cole and Donte Moncrief on the outside are also options. Moncrief leads the team in air yards while looking like a true No. 1 receiver in Bortles’ big Week 2 game.
5. Minnesota Vikings (1-2-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-2)
Total: 45.5
Favorite: Eagles (-3)
When this game opened at a mere 44.5-point projected total, it stood out as a clear miscalculation. While it’s been bet up at least a point across most outlets, this contest still feels underrated as a potential shootout. The Vikings defense was embarrassed in their home upset loss to the Buffalo Bills and was carved up by the Rams lethal offense. Minnesota just isn’t the same with Everson Griffen away for personal reasons and several mainstay players like Harrison Smith and Xavier Rhodes not playing their best football. The Eagles pass defense has also crumbled this season, allowing the third-most yards (836) to wide receivers this season. Jalen Mills at left cornerback, in particular, is a liability. Good thing they’re set to draw a matchup with the NFL’s best one-two punch at wide receiver. With Carson Wentz starting to get comfortable and the Vikings passing offense capable of crushing the Eagles secondary, the over is a solid proposition in this spot.
Matchup to watch
While the Eagles pass defense has turned into a liability, they remain one of the NFL’s best run defenses. Philadelphia allows a league-low 2.7 yards per carry to running backs. Dalvin Cook has been in and out of the lineup constantly through four weeks. This is a spot where it looks like the Vikings should just let Cook sit out a week to get healthy for the long run. Running should not be a focal point of their game plan this week given the matchup, and Minnesota already ranks No. 1 in passing play percentage. No matter who the Vikings run out of the backfield, they probably aren’t a fantasy option.
6. Green Bay Packers (2-1-1) at Detroit Lions (1-3)
Total: 51
Favorite: Packers (-1)
Both of these teams enter Week 5 with plenty of confusion. The Packers dropped the Bills, 22-0, but felt like they were running on half empty all game. Now they’re in danger of missing Davante Adams, Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison this week. Their trio of Day 3 rookie receivers are the only other options on the roster. None of Marquez Valdes-Scantling (74), J’Mon Moore (11) or Equanimeous St. Brown (zero) has played major snaps this season. It’s not outrageous to think that Green Bay may struggle to put up points in this spot with that skeleton crew. The Lions, on the other hand, are in a great position. The Packers were so desperate for cornerback help they signed Bashaud Breeland off the street, which isn’t great with this group of receivers coming to town. Golden Tate is white-hot and leads all wide receivers with 206 yards after the catch in 2018 and is fourth in deep receiving yards with 166. Kenny Golladay has cleared 70 yards and/or scored a touchdown in every single game this season. Marvin Jones brings big-play upside, leading the Lions in air yards this season with 448 and averaging a whopping 117 yards and 1.25 touchdowns per game against Green Bay during his stint in Detroit.
Matchup to watch
The Packers are unlikely to alter their committee approach in the backfield. The team appreciates Jamaal Williams’ reliability, perhaps you could argue too much so, and Ty Montgomery is a receiving asset. Unfortunately, that means it’s unlikely that Aaron Jones gets a 20-touch workload any time soon, even though he is clearly the best pure runner on the team. Even if that’s the case, Jones is clearly in play this week against a Lions defense that is bleeding running back production. Detroit has allowed a whopping 6.12 yards per carry to running backs this season. No other team has cracked 5.7. Jones’ big-play ability makes him worth chasing here, even if a full workload is likely just a dream.
7. Los Angeles Rams (4-0) at Seattle Seahawks (2-2)
Total: 50
Favorite: Rams (-7)
The Rams spotting the Seahawks seven points in Seattle would have been an unthinkable statement just two years ago, but things change quickly here in the NFL. Los Angeles ranks No. 1 in yards per drive and second in points per drive while playing faster than any other team this year. Sean McVay and company won’t see their momentum slowed here in Week 5 as they face a Seahawks defense that just lost Earl Thomas for the season. Thomas is one of the NFL’s biggest difference-makers. The Seahawks allowed a 77.8 passer rating in games with Thomas in 2017 and 100.3 in games without. The Rams also creamed the Seahawks in their late 2017 meeting in Seattle. Russell Wilson and company’s performance will be the key to whether this game can smash its 50-point total. The Seahawks have not been an efficient offense this season, ranking just 28th in drive success rate. Watchers hoping for a shootout will have to hope Wilson levitates out of his moribund offense and produces off-script late in the second half.
Matchup to watch
The Seahawks backfield is more grating than ever. Chris Carson was a late scratch in Week 5. Rather than give their first-round pick a shot at running the backfield, Seattle saddled Mike Davis with a full workload. Davis handled a beefy 26 touches to just nine for Penny. The rookie got no work in the pass game. Carson could be back this week, which would launch this team into a full-blown committee. Even though the Rams rank 21st with 4.36 yards per carry allowed to running back — because they know run defense doesn’t really matter — this murky backfield is one to completely avoid if you can help it.
8. Baltimore Ravens (3-1) at Cleveland Browns (1-2-1)
Total: 45.5
Favorite: Ravens (-3)
The Browns date with the Ravens has been one of the biggest negative moving totals of the week — one and a half points down from its 47-point total opener. Baker Mayfield was, by and large, a success in his starting debut, despite some turnovers. The No. 1 overall pick kept the offense moving, led the team to a 40-plus point finish and could have secured the win if not for a questionable officiating call at the end. Week 5 will provide a much stiffer test. The Ravens defense has clamped down on both the run and pass through four games, ranking first in yards per pass attempt allowed (5.3) and ninth in running back yards per carry (3.61). Baltimore’s offense could be the unit that pushes this total over. Unlike boring units of old, the Ravens are one of the fastest teams in the NFL, ranking No. 2 in seconds per play. Baltimore has shown few flaws so far through one month of 2018 and a -3 spread feels like a small slight, even on the road.
Matchup to watch
With Alex Collins struggling with fumbles and injuries, Buck Allen could be in line for an 18-plus touch workload. Allen ranks top-12 in routes run at the running back position per Pro Football Focus, and has a team-high 37.2 percent share of the carries inside the red zone. If Collins is limited or misses this game entirely, Allen would be a virtual lock in DFS contests at his $17 price tag.
9. Dallas Cowboys (2-2) at Houston Texans (1-3)
Total: 46.5
Favorite: Texans (-3.5)
We have a stark contrast in starting quarterback play in this matchup, with one of the game’s most aggressive passers and a close-to-the-vest player. Deshaun Watson led all quarterbacks in deep passing percentage as a rookie and is top-seven this season with 16.2 percent of his passes going 20-plus yards downfield. Conversely, Dak Prescott has thrown just 7.8 percent of his passes in the deep area of the field. That puts him in the Sam Bradford/Alex Smith tier. Whoever gets the other team on their preferred script will decide how this game flows. If Houston can push the ball against this questionable Dallas secondary, it could get high-scoring. Dallas will want to play foil and slow down the pace. The two biggest deciding factors will be the all-star defensive lineman for either team. DeMarcus Lawrence is playing lights out defense as a pass rusher. He could mince this pitiful Houston offensive line. J.J. Watt is nearing closer to his old god status as a run stuffer and pass rush threat. He could force the game from Ezekiell Elliott’s hands and put it in Dak Prescott’s palms.
Matchup to watch
While Keke Coutee carried a measly 3.4 average depth of target as a gadget-type player in his Texans’ debut, his college profile indicated he could do much more. Coutee cleared a 72 percent success rate on the corner, nine, and post routes in my Reception Perception charting. He has deep game chops in his arsenal as a route-runner. If Will Fuller misses this Sunday night game, Coutee would be a natural fit as the vertical threat replacement. Even if Fuller is out there, we have enough openings for usage in this passing game and Coutee could clean up in Bruce Ellington’s vacated slot role. Dallas’ top interior corner, Anthony Brown, has allowed an 80 percent catch rate this season.
Keke Coutee was primarily used as a manufactured touches player in his Week 4 breakout game.
However, looking at his #ReceptionPerception route success rate chart, you can see he has deep game chops. pic.twitter.com/ci9VGIQwr9
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) October 3, 2018
10. New York Giants (1-3) at Carolina Panthers (2-1)
Total: 43.5
Favorite: Panthers (-6.5)
We don’t have a big total in this game due to the Giants lack of big play ability and the Panthers general conservative nature. Neither team is playing fast, with the Panthers ranking 21st in pace of play in neutral situations and New York falling at 31st. Odell Beckham has yet to find the end zone and his ability to get over in this spot will be the key to bringing the Giants into enough points to smash this low total. The Panthers have an up and down No. 1 corner in James Bradberry and a rookie No. 2 in Donte Jackson. While the LSU product has been excellent in his first season, snagging three picks and allowing just 5.6 yards per target, Beckham could still get the better of this corner duo. It will just be on Eli Manning to make things happen, which has been a poor bet more often than not this year.
Matchup to watch
While we can’t confidently project offensive goodness for the Giants, the Panthers are in a great spot to exploit this matchup for a strong offensive performance. The Giants defense has been awful up front. New York ranks 31st with a 3.6 percent sack rate and allows 4.5 yards per carry to running backs. Cam Newton and Christian McCaffrey are fresh off their bye week and tremendous Week 3 performances over the last two weeks. With the Panthers a 6.5-point home favorite, this duo makes sense as a pricy ($66) but unique DFS stack.
11. Miami Dolphins (3-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-1)
Total: 48.5
Favorite: Bengals (-6)
The Dolphins were an easy to spot 3-0 fraud and promptly got shellacked by the New England Patriots. In Week 5, they’ll once again go to work against a legitimate AFC contender. The Dolphins are one of the least voluminous offenses in the NFL, running the fewest plays per drive and ranking 27th in pace. The Bengals are top-12 in both categories. With that gap in mind, it will take a lot for the Bengals to pull the Dolphins out of their shell. You can’t question Cincinnati’s offensive prowess through the first four weeks but Miami’s approach to play-calling could sink this somewhat high total on its own.
Matchup to watch
At this point, Tyler Boyd is more than cemented as an every-week fantasy flex as the Bengals No. 2 wideout. Boyd actually leads the team with a 23 percent target share and has really blossomed as a pro in his third season. Boyd has yardage totals of 91, 132 and 100 over the last three weeks. A.J. Green should draw coverage from emerging shutdown star Xavien Howard, who has picked off three passes and allowed just eight of 18 targets into his coverage to be caught. Boyd should be able to feast against a defense that has given up big games to secondary receivers like Jordy Nelson, Phillip Dorsett and Cordarrelle Patterson over the last two weeks. Miami will be without top slot corner Bobby McCain, who was allowing a 68.2 passer rating in coverage. Boyd is a 68 percent slot player.
12. Arizona Cardinals (0-4) at San Francisco 49ers (1-3)
Total: 40
Favorite: 49ers (-4)
The 49ers welcome the Cardinals in an AFC West showdown featuring the second-lowest projected point total of the week. Interestingly enough, the Cardinals come into this game with more hope behind center. As expected, Josh Rosen wasn’t the immediate savior for this team but he avoided epic disaster in his debut. Even if the rookie gives this unit a slight shot in the arm, we still can’t trust any of the pass-catchers in fantasy, despite the juicy matchup with San Francisco’s secondary. The 49ers’ young backup quarterback C.J. Beathard offered up a warrior performance in Week 4. Beathard kept the offense moving early but got walloped several times as the game went on and tossed a pair of picks. Neither defense stands out as a unit that’s particularly stout in any one area but this game could still be filled with plenty of errors.
Matchup to watch
Don’t look now but we’re starting to trend in the right direction with David Johnson’s usage. Johnson has touch totals of 14, 14, 16 and 25 over his first four games. The 49ers can control the line of scrimmage fairly well, allowing a mere 3.96 yards per carry (15th) to running backs. You beat San Francisco through the air and that includes throwing to backs. The 49ers trail only the Falcons with 35 receptions allowed to running backs. Johnson has leveled out with two touchdowns and strong usage over the last two weeks, but this could be his first big blowup game.
13. Denver Broncos (2-2) at New York Jets (1-3)
Total: 42.5
Favorite: Jets (-1)
Neither the Jets or Broncos come into this game with much momentum. Denver just dropped a late-game home loss to their hot divisional rivals in Kansas City. The efficient Sam Darnold of Week 1 now feels like a distant memory, as this offense seems to get worse every week. The Jets are giving a point here simply because they’re the home team with Denver coming to the east coast. So much about this game screams “stay away.”
Matchup to watch
Emmanuel Sanders has bankable volume but comes with some concerns. Case Keenum is starting to turn back into a pumpkin and Sanders has little role in scoring position. The veteran receiver does have target totals of 11, four, eight and seven this season. You can’t turn your nose up at that even though he’s come under 50 yards in back to back games. Sanders is in a good spot to get right in Week 5 against a Jets defense whose weakest corner resides in the slot. Buster Skrine has allowed 15 of 20 targets in slot coverage to be completed.
14. Tennessee Titans (3-1) at Buffalo Bills (1-3)
Total: 39.5
Favorite: Titans (-4.5)
While we haven’t seen the best of the Titans all season, the gap in these two teams’ records does reflect the disparity in their true medians. Even with their stunning upset over the Vikings in the fold, the Bills offensive efficiency metrics are simply putrid. The team ranks dead last in yards per drive and 31st in points per drive. While the Titans offense has taken some time to find itself, the defense has been consistently strong. The pass rush is noticeably improved with the addition of emerging star rookie Harold Landry. Unless Tennessee commits the same sins of Minnesota and looks past the Bills, the Titans should handle business here.
Matchup to watch
Corey Davis turned his bankable WR1 usage into fantasy scoring with a healthy Marcus Mariota in Week 4. Davis owns a whopping 42 percent share of the Titans air yards this season, a 32 percent of the team’s total targets and an NFL-high 58.3 percent share of the team’s targets inside the 10-yard line. That’s the type of juicy volume elite-level wide receivers get. Davis isn’t that high up the trust tree just yet but has another opportunity to prove his stock here in Week 5. Fellow 2017 rookie Tre’Davious White has been the Bills lone steady corner this year, allowing a sub-60 percent catch rate in coverage. Davis can certainly get the better of this matchup but it’s the type of test that should he pass, we’ll be inching him closer to the WR1 inner-circle.
