Where it went wrong for Ferrari and Sebastian Vettel in 2018 - can they catch Mercedes?

The 2018 Formula One season looked for a long time as though it would go down to the wire. Ferrari, it seemed, would have the opportunity to banish the ghosts of 2017.

Then Sebastian Vettel held a 14-point lead over Lewis Hamilton going into the summer break only for an Asian implosion triggered by a first-lap Singapore shunt handed Hamilton and Mercedes the chance which they grasped with both hands.

But it is a case of history repeating itself this season - Ferrari led both championships in July - in even more painful circumstances. With Hamilton securing his fifth world title with two rounds to spare and Mercedes clinching the constructors' championship, we analyse where it went wrong for Ferrari and also look forward to 2019.

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Car performance and reliability 

Performance is an area where Ferrari have excelled. There have been blips but over the course of the season the gap to Mercedes has been minuscule. Looking at the raw pace ranking - calculated by taking each team's fastest lap across a race weekend - Ferrari were just 0.141 per cent away from Mercedes.

Indeed, in the four-race period between the German and Italian Grands Prix, Ferrari looked to have a small but significant advantage over Mercedes. But it was in this period where things fell apart in dramatic fashion. They simply failed to make their advantage pay.

Errors in both seasons have come at a time when Ferrari have produced their most competitive car since 2007 and 2008, when they won back-to-back constructors championships. A relative dip in form occurred in Singapore, Russia and Japan as Mercedes improved but by that point they were already facing a steep task.

Unlike in 2017, when a spark plug failure led to Vettel's retirement in the Japanese Grand Prix, reliability has played almost no part in Ferrari's problems this season. While Raikkonen retired from two races early in the season, Vettel has had no such bad luck.

Put simply, Ferrari had a golden opportunity to be the first team to end Mercedes dominance of the turbo hybrid era, where they have won every drivers and constructors' title. But they failed.

How can they improve?

With only relatively minor regulation changes for next season, Ferrari should be in a position to challenge for both championships for a third year running. If they get the details right. In the second half of the season Ferrari led Mercedes before a blip from Singapore to Japan where car updates had a negative effect. They rolled back these developments for the US Grand Prix and performance improved. Still, although the margin was small Mercedes had the quicker car over the season, taking everything into account.

Driver error

The most damaging errors have been those made by Vettel, not his team. A lock-up after a Safety Car restart in Azerbaijan was costly as it allowed Hamilton to pass and then take victory. But it was not until the mid-season that the mistakes began to look significant.

Each was not in itself massive, indeed some were fairly standard. Small errors with large consequences, perhaps. But in a close championship these are magnified. Three moments in the middle of the season had the greatest significance.

The first came in France, when Vettel in third ran into the back of Valtteri Bottas after locking up under braking on lap one. Vettel took on damage and would finish fifth as Hamilton won. This net loss, had the error not been made, was five points.

The second came in Germany, a race where Vettel's pace in qualifying was blistering. He took pole while Hamilton's troubled qualifying left him 14th on the grid. He fought back superbly in the race to second when the rain started to fall.

Vettel slid off from the lead and Hamilton took an unlikely but brilliant victory. This was the most costly error of the season and was pivotal in the championship. It was a 32-point swing and put Vettel 17 points behind. Again, an easy error to make but one with huge implications.

By the Italian Grand Prix at Monza, the German had clawed back some ground in winning at Spa-Francorchamps. Again Ferrari dominated qualifying, locking out the front row. And again a first-lap error from Vettel saw him drop down to the back of the field. This time it was a collision with Hamilton, who again went on to take a superb victory with his rival in fourth. Crudely calculated, this was a three-point net loss.

By this point Vettel now trailed by 30 points in the championship with seven races remaining. Errors in those three crucial races above cost him a net 40 points to Hamilton.

Singapore looked like a last chance for Ferrari to close Mercedes down but Ferrari's advantage had been overturned by Mercedes, who now had the quicker car, an advantage they held until the end of the season.

Still, crunching the wall in practice cost Vettel crucial running time in difficult conditions and the struggle continued until the chequered flag as Hamilton dominated once more.

The gap had increased to 40 points and soon it was 50, after another poor weekend in Russia; Ferrari's pace the primary reason for this. Further collisions in the Japanese and United States grands prix were the mark of a man chasing a quicker man in a quicker car and a title that had already slipped away.

How can they improve?

Clearly, if you cut out the errors then you have an instant improvement on results. It is a fairly simple suggestion but not an easy one to remedy. In many ways it is encouraging that Vettel's own performances are the critical factor in Ferrari's failure to win one or both titles. And, in fairness, his performances early in the season deserve credit. It was just that his largest errors came when Ferrari were on top.

The addition of Charles Leclerc will be an interesting one to monitor. Will he be an improvement on Raikkonen? Perhaps in the medium term but for all his talent there is no guarantee of him being able to instantly perform to a level as high as Vettel or even the man he replaces. Judging by his introduction to F1 this year, though, he will be up to the job.

Strategy

Ferrari have not helped themselves with strategy but its part in their demise is smaller then the faults behind the wheel.

Strategy is a tough business and no team nails it every weekend. It involves so many variables and calculations that errors are almost guaranteed. Mercedes have not been immune, either.  It's easy to end up looking like a mug when you end up making the wrong decision for the right reasons.

Making the smart calls when they matter though, is often what separates a winning team from a losing one. It is here Ferrari have made a few mistakes. Letting Raikkonen get a tow behind Vettel in qualifying at Monza might seem fairly trivial, but it had far-reaching consequences at a time when the Scuderia should be leaving nothing to chance.

Raikkonen - who had just been told he would not be retained for next season - was not fighting for the title so why let him have the most advantageous conditions?

Vettel missed out on pole to his team-mate by just 0.011 seconds and would start one place ahead of Hamilton. In the race there was no buffer between them at the start, Hamilton got a tow behind the Ferrari into the second chicane and Vettel made a small but expensive error.

In Singapore, their race strategy also looked suspect and being on the wrong tyres limited a frustrated Vettel's chances of beating Max Verstappen to second place and maybe even challenging Hamilton for the win.

“I wasn’t ­convinced we would make it to the end of the race, but pitting again was no option. It doesn’t help [in the championship], but I am mostly thinking about today, and the way we raced we didn’t stand a chance,” Vettel said afterwards. 

By qualifying for the Japanese Grand Prix, Ferrari's thinking was so scattered that they sent both of their drivers out on intermediate tyres on a damp but drying track when the rest of the field were on slicks. Team principal Maurizio Arrivabene was not best pleased and he strongly criticised the decision in public.

How can they improve?

Strategy in F1 races is reactive. Or, to quote Prussian military Commander Helmuth von Moltke the Elder,  "no battle plan survives contact with the enemy".  It may be too late for lessons learned in 2018 to be applied in 2019 because the situations will be different. This season Ferrari were chasing Mercedes at the critical points - next season they may be leading.

What Ferrari can think about, though, is their decision-making processes, as they surely do all the time. Can they learn from Mercedes here? Perhaps. But the culture of a team is a difficult thing to change and it is not even certain if it even needs to change.  Mercedes and Red Bull could be the ones making poor decisions next season.

Leadership

The buck stops at the head of the team. Arrivabene has led Ferrari since 2014, coming in after the short-lived and unsuccessful tenure of Marco Mattiacci. Mattiacci's six-month reign ended with a thoroughly disappointing winless season, fourth in the constructors' championship and the loss of their star driver, Fernando Alonso.

The Italian has managed to turn things around. In 2015 Ferrari won three races as Vettel became their lead driver. 2016 was again winless but by 2017 they had a car that was capable of challenging Mercedes dominance. The same applied in 2018. There should be credit for this.

Getting into a winning position is not even half of it, though. While their raw performance has been at the top-level this season you cannot say that Ferrari as a team have performed well under pressure and certainly not in comparison to Mercedes. The signs are of a team not working well together.  Discontent has been publicly aired. First Vettel in Singapore and then Arrivabene after qualifying at Suzuka.

"I am very angry. It is not the first time that these mistakes have occurred.  I do not feel like pointing my fingers at someone in particular, but I'm very disappointed. Unlike on other occasions, it was easy to understand what was happening on the track, as all our opponents left the pits with slicks," the Italian said in Japan.

It was not a good look. Contrast this to Mercedes this season, who have taken things to the other extreme with team strategists owning up to individual blunders to drivers mid-race. Odd, yes, but Mercedes made all the right noises if only appearing harmonious.  At Ferrari we have seen disharmony. But it is easy for the appearance of a sour atmosphere in a losing team. All is well when you're winning.

Arrivabene should not be held responsible for the critical factor here: his driver's mistakes. Vettel's errors also cost Ferrari ground in a tight constructors' battle. Just 47 points separated them from Mercedes going into the final race of the season.

After losing the title in Mexico City, Vettel said that he had lost to the better driver. Arrivabene, too, has been nothing but gracious in defeat. But his outfit have been beaten by the better team this year.

Does anything need to change?

Change at the top of F1 teams happens often and quickly. Overall Ferrari should be disappointed but encouraged by their season. For all the mistakes listed above you can also look at the fact that Lewis Hamilton had perhaps his finest season in F1 and Vettel and Ferrari were simply unable to match it.

Ferrari want to be at the summit of Formula One. Their history, fans and team members deserve this. In 2017 and 2018 they were so close but yet so far.  For all the talk of the decline of McLaren and Williams, Ferrari too are experiencing a blip of their own. Much success, yes, but no drivers or constructors' titles for ten years. And a lot of near-misses in that time.

The real challenge for Arrivabene could be managing both of their drivers next season. Especially if Charles Leclerc is as quick as everyone expects him to be. If he does match up to the standard of Vettel, though, that can only be good for Ferrari's chances of toppling Mercedes for the first time since 2013.