Why Conte’s tactics make Chelsea title favourites

The days when tiki-taka consumed world football are already a distant memory. It was only five years ago that Spain and Barcelona hypnotised their opponents by endlessly circulating possession, humiliating the opposition like school bullies playing piggy-in-the-middle with a younger kid’s lunch box. But already their model for world domination feels a bit stale, its waning popularity symbolised neatly by Louis van Gaal’s emphatic failure at Manchester United some two decades after he introduced the system to Barcelona and then-captain Pep Guardiola.

Leicester City’s Premier League title, though a bizarre anomaly in itself, will be remembered as final proof of the recoil; a team that averaged 48% possession surely ends our transfixion with possession and territorial dominance, a trait that reached saturation point when Jose Mourinho’s Inter absorbed 76% in the 2010 Champions League semi-final but has lingered even as new models emerge. Across 2016, possession-v-absorption has been a defining feature of English, Spanish, and international football.

Lessons have been learnt from Leicester’s title and Man United’s ambling failure and after Portugal’s Euro 2016 triumph the Premier League will surely now move sharply away from the extreme ball-retention systems of Van Gaal, Roberto Martinez, Arsene Wenger, and Brendan Rodgers. Jose Mourinho’s tactical philosophy remains in vogue and, in time, he will excel at Man United whilst Guardiola’s impressive ability to reinvent himself means that he too has adapted away from extremes. But the new methods – of aggressive high pressing, minimalist passing lines, and direct counter-attacks that take their ideas from Germany’s reaction to tiki-taka – most obviously favour Antonio Conte and Chelsea.

The new buzz word of the era is “verticality”, that infuriatingly hipster banality whose meaning translates, roughly, to “stop wasting time on the ball and hit target areas with quick forward movement”. It is a precise antithesis to tiki-taka built on subverting the prosaic tone of possession teams: the new trend is to catch out opponents’ high lines by rapidly shifting through the gears (it often feels like a rebounding to old tactical methods used throughout English football in the 90s, but it is blended with a more complex tactical fluidity, more running, and more possession).

Conte’s time at Juventus, coupled with his more defensive and conservative tenure as Italy coach, makes him one of the best in the world at this system - and makes Chelsea favourites to lift the 2016/17 Premier League title.

Conte’s obsession with detail and meticulous tactical preparation – from passionate seminars on opposition flaws (like being at “the university of football” according to Carlos Tevez) to repeating attacking pattern drills until seared into muscle memory – will feel familiar to a squad used to the violent intensity of Jose Mourinho. This continuity is what gives Chelsea the edge; whilst both Guardiola and Mourinho undertake dramatic restructuring in Manchester, the Chelsea staff are well prepared for Conte’s methods and – thanks to Mourinho’s ruthless weeding out of any egos – are ready to listen.

This is not to dismiss the genius of Mourinho or Guardiola, but Conte’s methods are perhaps uniquely aligned with the Premier League’s idiosyncratic aesthetic. The new Chelsea manager will combine controlled possession in defence with quick movement out to the wings and into the forwards, pressing very aggressively when they lose the ball and playing, throughout the ninety, with a very high intensity.

This will sound extremely familiar to anyone who knows what Premier League football looks and feels like, and anyone who watched Spurs and Leicester excel last campaign with a full-throttle approach. By contrast, Mourinho’s tactical consistency and use of a small clique make him perhaps unlikely to triumph in his first season whilst Guardiola will need time to build a coat of armour around his graceful style. It is easy to envisage the league’s bottom-half clubs playing backs-to-the-wall against Man City and frustrating Guardiola time and time again.

Conte’s adaptability and ability to play on the counter should prevent Chelsea from suffering in similar ways. The likes of Willian and Juan Cuardrado will make exceptional wingers in a fast-paced system defined by high work-rate, whilst the addition of N’Golo Kante has immediately transformed one of the league’s most tepid central midfields into a formidable force. Kante, though famed for his immaculate positional sense and tackling/intercepting ability, is superb at manoeuvring away from danger and triggering a counter-attack with his exceptionally intelligent distribution. Chelsea will score dozens of break-way goals next season.

The final piece of the jigsaw will be updating Chelsea’s defence - the foundation of every Conte team. Leonardo Bonucci would, of course, be the ideal option but there are plenty of other names that would be equally successful at Stamford Bridge.

As Man United and Man City scramble to find new identification, Chelsea’s manager offers continuity – and an aggressive, modern tactical approach that altogether suits English football. But more than this, the complexity and malleability of Conte’s philosophy denies the possession-v-absorption narrative that has come to define 2016. It is not unreasonable to say that - in what will be a transitional year for the majority of England’s biggest clubs - Conte’s Chelsea are clear favourites to win the title.