Why so many big transfer stories are unlikely to take place in January

As we all come to the realisation that we’ve eaten too much yet again at Christmas time, focus quickly switches to the January transfer window which will be opening in a few days. You need to weed out the truth in amongst the minefield of baseless rumours and page-filling guess work due to the impact of Twitter and it’s instant updates. Today I’m going to give you the lowdown on the current speculation doing the rounds.

Neymar to Manchester United/Manchester City/Real Madrid

This beauty actually started up in the final week of the summer transfer window and most saw it as a desperate attempt to sell a certain newspaper. Manchester United were linked then as they had been with many other big players throughout the summer but, as with Pedro and Otamendi, it came to nothing.

Soon after the window closed a few other respectable names in football added that Manchester United had asked about the availability of the Brazilian starlet, currently in the midst of contract talks with Barcelona, when talking about a deal for Pedro. Neymar’s father, who loves a good chat to the media, went one further and said Manchester United did lodge an offer for Neymar during the summer but Barcelona said he was not for sale. “The offer reached Barcelona and the club contacted us to say they weren’t going to sell. It was Manchester’s deal but that offer is no longer on the table, it has fallen through.”

In the last few weeks the name of Manchester City has come up as they too sense a window of opportunity as long as he hasn’t put pen to paper on a new deal at Barcelona. As we all know, Manchester City are not afraid to splash the cash and have been linked with a move to sign Messi as well as Neymar. Add to that the speculation about Pep Guardiola coming in next summer and wanting a ‘Galactico’ to present alongside him.

And finally, last week, it was the turn of arch rivals Real Madrid to be linked with a renewed move for Neymar. Likened to the move which brought Luis Figo to the club it is rumoured Florentino Perez sees Neymar as ‘the one that got away’ and has invited the player’s father [yes, him again] to his house in Madrid to lay the groundwork but he’s been turned down every time.

These type of stories always appear when a big player is re-negotiating his contract with a club. Neymar stuck with Santos as he wanted to emulate his idol Pele and did that. Real Madrid actually offered him more money than Barcelona back in 2013 but the player’s wish was to follow in the footsteps of fellow Brazilians Ronaldo, Rivaldo and Ronaldinho as well as Leo Messi, who he has a lot of admiration for.

Neymar admitted there was interest from Manchester City and when asked about his future being away from Barcelona he said, “You never know, life is long.” Yet in the same quick-fire interview that he was optimistic about reaching an agreement with the Catalan giants soon. In 2, 3 or 4 years a lot can change but there’s little doubt he will sign a bumper contract in the next 6 months despite the interest from abroad.

Chance of a move happening: 1/5

Nolito and Grzegorz Krychowiak to Arsenal

This one popped up around the middle of December after Mundo Deportivo reported Barcelona were unwilling to match the Spanish winger’s release clause so Arsenal had jumped to the head of the queue for his services.

Nolito has been outstanding this year, picking up from where he left off at the end of the 14/15 season. At one of the slightly less fashionable sides in Spain he’s done remarkably well to force his way into Vicent del Bosque’s plans for Euro 2016. In 15 La Liga matches he’s scored 8 goals and provided 5 assists, playing a huge part in the side occupying the last Champions League spot at the time of writing this.

Six months ago he was linked with moves to Valencia and Barcelona but neither deal came to fruition despite strong interest from both sides. Shortly after the summer window had closed there were reports Nolito had agreed a new deal at Celta but to this day there has been no official comment about his renewal so those reports appear to be wide of the mark.

A move away from Celta in January doesn’t make a lot of sense for Nolito and even less so to a side outside of Spain. He’s in the form of his life, happy and bar an injury will go with Spain to the Euros in France this summer. To switch countries and run the risk of failing to adapt to new surroundings would represent a massive gamble. He knows there’s interest in him but this is probably his best - maybe only - shot at playing in an International tournament. However, after Euro 2016 I can see him searching for pastures new.

Chance of a move happening: 1/5

Grzegorz Krychowiak seems like the perfect fit for Arsenal. Despite Francis Coquelin proving everyone that doubted him wrong, the Polish international would add much more steel to the Gunner’s midfield. Mikel Arteta is on the decline and Jack Wilshere can’t stay fit so there’s even the possibility of moving Coquelin slightly forward in the midfield if need be.

Krychowiak, like his side Sevilla themselves, actually started the season poorly. He was linked with moves away during the summer but instead put pen to paper and committed his immediate future to the club. He’s a huge fan favourite at Sevilla but they know, as they’ve seen in the past, every player has its price.

I know Arsenal have spent big before but circa £33m on a defensive midfielder in January doesn’t sound right. Sevilla are usually more open to losing their stars in the summer as opposed to midseason so if there is any genuine interest in bringing the Polish destroyer in, they’d be wiser to wait.

Chance of a move happening: 2/5

Alvaro Negredo, Sandro Ramirez or Jackson Martinez to Spurs

Tottenham are enjoying a fine season under the stewardship of Maurico Pochettino but still find themselves a little light in the striker’s department. Harry Kane has shown no signs of slowing down but Clinton N’Jie has struggled to impose himself at White Hart Lane and is currently out injured so the club are looking for reinforcements this January.

Pochettino is an avid follower of La Liga, having played and managed at Espanyol before moving to Southampton, so is often scouring the market in Spain for bargains. The first name to be linked with Spurs was that of Alvaro Negredo. The big frontman has failed to live up to expectations after a season in England with Manchester City and under former manager Nuno Espirito Santos was frozen out of the first team picture. The appointment of Gary Neville has changed things radically as the Englishman is a fan of Negredo’s physical style.

Chance of a move happening: 2/5

Jackson Martinez has been linked with a move to Spurs as much as anyone in the last few years but he eventually plumped for Atletico Madrid in the summer. It’s been tough going for the prolific Colombian so far and with constant speculation linking Diego Costa with a return to El Calderon, he would seem the most likely to make way. A loan move to Spurs doesn’t quite add up though. Diego Simeone is a huge fan of Jackson’s and won’t allow him to leave on loan even if Costa did find his way back in Spain.

Chance of a move happening: 1/5

Sandro Ramirez has made 18 appearances for Barcelona this season with Messi and Neymar having spells on the sidelines. He’s been tidy but it’s hard to stand out amongst the immense talent on show there. At 20 he needs game time to develop and it’s hard to see him getting enough once Aleix Vidal and Arda Turan are added to the squad in January. Comfortable playing anywhere along the front three he seems to fit Pochettino’s remit: young, versatile with untapped potential.

Chance of a move happening: 4/5

Ricardo Rodriguez to Real Madrid

This is another deja vu transfer story as it first appeared last summer. The Wolfsburg left back was seen as the ideal replacement for the out-going Fabio Coentrao, who had endured countless injury problems at Madrid. In the end Real Madrid decided that having Arbeloa and Nacho as cover for Marcelo would be enough.

Things have changed since as Marcelo’s injury problems haven’t gone away and the need for a left back appears greater than ever. Sadly this is Real Madrid and with a president calling the shots, it’s hard to see them spending big to bring in a left back while they are trailing Atletico and Barcelona in the league.

Rodriguez wouldn’t come cheap either and his high asking price, around £30m, was what put Madrid off last summer. Currently out injured himself it seems unlikely Real will spend that kind of cash on someone to play back-up to Marcelo although if the Brazilian endured another few months similar to how he’s ended 2015, you could see this being revisited again.

Chance of a move happening: 2/5

Antoine Griezmann to Chelsea

It seems that whenever something goes wrong at Chelsea they turn to Atletico Madrid. After Jose Mourinho was sacked speculation began that Diego Simeone was chosen by Roman Abramovich to take the reigns either immediately or in the summer. Gus Hiddink is obviously in charge for now but he appears to be a stop-gap solution until the summer where Simeone continues to be the frontrunner.

After signing Diego Costa and Filipe Luis in 2014, speculation has suggested recently that both Antoine Griezmann and Jackson Martinez could end up in London before or alongside Simeone. Costa looked to have stepped into Didier Drogba’s shoes last season but has come up short so far in 15/16, scoring just 5 (2 of which came only a couple of days ago). Loic Remy is the new Demba Ba, signed just to sit on the bench at Chelsea so he doesn’t start for a rival.

Griezmann has been one of the most consistent performers in La Liga, scoring 22 goals last season and helping Atletico Madrid’s push at the top this term while his fellow strike partners are finding their feet. Comfortable playing off the wing, behind a main striker or as the lone front man he’s one of the most sought-after attackers in world football. It makes sense for a side like Chelsea to be interested in him but again, a move in January looks incredibly unlikely regardless of the terms on offer.

Diego Costa’s return to Atletico Madrid looks increasingly likely next summer and it could coincide with Griezmann moving the opposite way. As for January though? Nah.

Chance of move happening: 0/5 (in January) 3/5 (next summer)