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World Cup 2022 group-stage thrills proving why three-team 2026 plan needs work

World Cup 2022 group-stage thrills proving why three-team 2026 plan needs work

One day of group-stage drama and jeopardy enjoyed, another coming right up, but enjoy them while they last — the end may well be nigh.

Come 2026 and it is three-team groups, the final round of fixtures will feature only two-thirds of the 48 nations and, obviously, no concurrent matches, no scrambling through the changing permutations, no “news of a goal elsewhere… but for who?”.

Qatar is sending out the 32-team format in style, only the second time in history that all 16 third-round matches have had qualification for at least one team — and in most cases, two — on the line.

Germany’s scramble to avoid a second successive exit at this stage is the headline on a final day in Group E that could match yesterday’s fun and games for showcasing the perfect balance between ruthlessness and window for salvation offered by the World Cup in its current but soon-to-be extinct guise.

Australia celebrate an unlikely passage to the last-16 stage. (AFP via Getty Images)
Australia celebrate an unlikely passage to the last-16 stage. (AFP via Getty Images)

Tunisia yesterday went out of the tournament having beaten France and drawn with Euros semi-finalists Denmark. Japan could top that hard-luck story today by adding a draw with Spain to their win over the Germans and still be heading home if results elsewhere do not go their way.

Costa Rica, meanwhile, are at the other end of the spectrum, thrashed 7-0 in their opener and having had one shot on target in two games so far, but knowing a point could take them through and that three definitely will. It makes Australia’s recovery to progress after being thumped by France in their opener look a logical path.

Germany, meanwhile, will look at Argentina’s example, stunned in their first match but now, not only still alive and kicking, but looking like contenders again.

FIFA World Cup 2022 Qatar | Best Images and Moments

England’s Marcus Rashford scores their first goal from a free kick past Wales’ Danny (REUTERS)
England’s Marcus Rashford scores their first goal from a free kick past Wales’ Danny (REUTERS)
Ismaila Sarr of Senegal celebrates after their sides victory during the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 Group A match between Ecuador and Senegal at Khalifa International Stadium (Getty Images)
Ismaila Sarr of Senegal celebrates after their sides victory during the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 Group A match between Ecuador and Senegal at Khalifa International Stadium (Getty Images)
USA’s forward #10 Christian Pulisic scores his team’s first goal past Iran’s goalkeeper #01 Alireza Beiranvand during the Qatar 2022 World Cup Group B football match between Iran and USA at the Al-Thumama Stadium in Doha (AFP via Getty Images)
USA’s forward #10 Christian Pulisic scores his team’s first goal past Iran’s goalkeeper #01 Alireza Beiranvand during the Qatar 2022 World Cup Group B football match between Iran and USA at the Al-Thumama Stadium in Doha (AFP via Getty Images)
A pitch invader runs across the field with a rainbow flag during the World Cup group H match between Portugal and Uruguay, at the Lusail Stadium in Lusail (AP)
A pitch invader runs across the field with a rainbow flag during the World Cup group H match between Portugal and Uruguay, at the Lusail Stadium in Lusail (AP)
Cameroon’s Vincent Aboubakar, left, scores the second goal past Serbia’s goalkeeper Vanja Milinkovic-Savic during the World Cup group G soccer match between Cameroon and Serbia, at the Al Janoub Stadium in Al Wakrah, Qatar (AP)
Cameroon’s Vincent Aboubakar, left, scores the second goal past Serbia’s goalkeeper Vanja Milinkovic-Savic during the World Cup group G soccer match between Cameroon and Serbia, at the Al Janoub Stadium in Al Wakrah, Qatar (AP)
Brazil’s midfielder #05 Casemiro celebrates with teammates after he scored his team’s first goal during the Qatar 2022 World Cup Group G match v Switzerland at Stadium 974 in Doha (AFP via Getty Images)
Brazil’s midfielder #05 Casemiro celebrates with teammates after he scored his team’s first goal during the Qatar 2022 World Cup Group G match v Switzerland at Stadium 974 in Doha (AFP via Getty Images)
England’s Harry Kane reacts after missing a chance to score v USA (REUTERS)
England’s Harry Kane reacts after missing a chance to score v USA (REUTERS)
France’s Kylian Mbappe scores their second goal v Denmark (REUTERS)
France’s Kylian Mbappe scores their second goal v Denmark (REUTERS)
Fans from Japan wait for the start of the World Cup group E soccer match v Germany at the Khalifa International Stadium in Doha, Qatar, (AP)
Fans from Japan wait for the start of the World Cup group E soccer match v Germany at the Khalifa International Stadium in Doha, Qatar, (AP)
Uruguay’s forward #21 Edinson Cavani (bottom) eyes the ball during the Qatar 2022 World Cup Group H match between Portugal and Uruguay at the Lusail Stadium in Lusail, north of Doh (AFP via Getty Images)
Uruguay’s forward #21 Edinson Cavani (bottom) eyes the ball during the Qatar 2022 World Cup Group H match between Portugal and Uruguay at the Lusail Stadium in Lusail, north of Doh (AFP via Getty Images)
A Ghana staff member takes selfie with despondent Heung-min Son after victory over South Korea (BBC)
A Ghana staff member takes selfie with despondent Heung-min Son after victory over South Korea (BBC)

The only way for Hansi Flick’s men to be certain of qualification is to beat Costa Rica by eight, though the manager understandably played down the chances of his goal-shy side running up that kind of score.

“I think it would show a lack of respect to Costa Rica to talk about scoring eight goals,” he said. “We will be happy if we win it, and that is our aim. We want to try to decide it for us from the start.”

Striker Niclas Fullkrug is pushing for a start, following his crucial equaliser against Spain, who are all-but through already and can secure top spot with a win.