World Cup Permutations - England, Wales or Australia?

Ten days into the World Cup and Pool A has lived up to expectations. While there is some way to go, we’re a little bit clearer on the permutations in the “Pool of Death”. There will inevitably be plenty more shocks and surprises along the way, but here’s what we know so far.

As the Host Nation, England went into the game against Wales as firm favourites and by all accounts should have won. Wales upset proceedings and pulled out the performance of their lives to shock Twickenham and the Rugby World. To win under the circumstances was an incredible effort and has put Wales in a strong position, drawing first blood amongst the three favourites.

Australia meanwhile, have kept their snouts out of trouble, easily dispatching of Uruguay and also negotiating a tricky game against Fiji. Only one bonus point from two games however, could prove costly. But Cheika is pragmatic and has said that winning every group game is their priority, not picking up bonus points.

So where to next? Let’s start with Wales. Given their injury crisis and the emotional & physical toll the game against England will have taken on the squad, they may struggle from here on out. They will not underestimate Fiji, but they may well underperform. A five day turnaround after the match of your life is a huge ask and a bonus point win could be beyond them. If they manage to win handsomely against Fiji, Gatland and Co will deserve even more plaudits and they will have ten days to prepare for their final game against Australia.

England meanwhile must prepare themselves for their boom or bust clash against a resurgent Australia. Cheika has built something special in the Australian squad, not least the “HoopCock” combination at 7 & 8. Lancaster may regret not having Armitage in his squad to counter two of the best poachers in World Rugby. It’s hard to see the host nation go out in their home tournament, so England should do just enough to get the better of Australia in this game.

Given Wales’ dismal record against Australia, it will be tough for them to reverse this trend with limited resources, so an Australian victory seems the more likely in the final game of the group.

So where does that leave us? Well in a very close predicament with all three teams equal on 3 wins and 1 loss. It will then come down to bonus points and perhaps even points difference

If we assume that both losing teams win a bonus point and that Wales do not manage to pick up the bonus point against Fiji, the group could finish up looking like this:

So while English fans were inconsolable after the Wales game, there is still hope. Despite their heroics in Twickenham, Wales still have plenty of work to do and Australia should brace themselves, their World Cup to starts in earnest next Saturday when they have the opportunity to do what no team has ever done. Knock the hosts out in the group stages. It’s all fun and games at #RWC2015 and as a relatively neutral Irish fan, this is just too good. Enjoy the fireworks and good luck keeping your dinner down!

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