Yahoo Fantasy Hockey: How the Panthers can help your team

(Ed. Note: We’re once again pleased to partner with Dobber Hockey to provide fantasy hockey insight throughout the NHL season. Here’s Steve Laidlaw, the Managing Editor of Dobber Hockey, as your new fantasy hockey smarty-pants!)

By Steve Laidlaw

When the Florida Panthers return from their bye week on Thursday, they will do so at full health for the first time all season. They have 30 games left on the schedule, only the New York Islanders, Colorado Avalanche and Arizona Coyotes have played fewer. There’s no such thing as a guarantee but the Panthers have the look of a team you may want to load up on down the stretch.

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Aleksander Barkov is a top flight No. 1 centerman, in the mold of Anze Kopitar. He is a load to deal with, can drive play and score at near a point-per-game pace. He’s also only 21, in just his fourth year in the league – the best is yet to come.

Prior to his injury, Barkov had gone on a run with seven goals and 16 points in a 15-game stretch, while averaging nearly 20 minutes per game. It may take some time before his body is ready for that kind of usage but it’s worth noting that he pulled off that hot run skating predominantly with Seth Griffith and Jaromir Jagr. Getting Huberdeau back is going to be a huge boost.

Huberdeau is coming off of a breakout year, finally adding the strength to hold up in the corners and along the wall, allowing him to maintain puck possession, while looking for open teammates. Huberdeau also set a career high for goals with 20. Huberdeau’s ability to go above and beyond that 20-goal plateau will determine how high his ceiling goes.

Jagr stands to benefit most from these two returning. He is owned in 60% of Yahoo leagues based on name, not production. He’s on pace for just 46 points. You can guarantee there are better players on the waiver wire in at least half of the leagues where he is still rostered. As great as Jagr is, there is no doubt that he was elevated by Barkov and Huberdeau last season. Perhaps he will be again. However, it took Jagr shooting 18.9% for him to reach last season’s 66-point mark. Drop his shooting percentage to his career average and he loses 10 goals off that total. We should be treating Jagr like a 55-point guy who could swing 10 points one way or the other.

We saw a sneak peek of the Panthers’ lines when they suited up for one game last week:

No. 1 – 27.9% – Barkov, Huberdeau, Jagr
No. 2 – 25% – Jokinen, Smith, Trocheck
No. 3 – 12.7% – Bjugstad, Marchessault, Sgarbossa
No. 4 – 9.8% – MacKenzie, Sceviour, Thornton

The return of this top line pushes Jonathan Marchessault back down the depth chart and into the role they expected for him going into the season. He skated just 12:43 on an intriguing third line but was held scoreless, ending a five-game scoring streak.

Marchessault did see time on the same power play unit as Barkov, Huberdeau, Jagr and Keith Yandle so he hasn’t been iced out of relevance entirely. We know how hot he can get and he doesn’t necessarily need an elite centerman to get him there. Still, Marchessault should be on the chopping block in your fantasy league. If he’s not producing, don’t hold on too long. There are productive options on the waiver wire.

Marchessault could be rescued by a line shakeup if things don’t work out for the Panthers’ second line. Trocheck stepped up in a big way while Barkov was out, skating a league-leading 22:08 per game. He soaked up big minutes in all situations. With newfound depth, the minutes should get dialed back a bit, particularly on the power play and at even strength. Trocheck is an important penalty killer so his minutes should remain up above 20 per game.

The Panthers split power play time evenly between their first and second units, meaning that Trocheck’s group with Bjugstad, Smith, Jokinen and Ekblad won’t be iced out entirely but it also means that none of the Panthers are going to produce huge scoring numbers. Considering Trocheck was 14th in league scoring with 16 points in 15 games, while Barkov was out and that it took Barkov getting hurt for him to get his season going, I would say there is cause for concern regarding his fantasy value.

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It would help if Smith and Jokinen could get their acts together. Both are shooting below their career averages after posting above-average marks last season and are on pace for sub-40-point seasons. Without help from his wingers Trocheck will falter down the stretch. That’s where hope comes in for Marchessault as he and Trocheck flashed some chemistry together. Both Smith and Jokinen have on-ice shooting percentages languishing below league average. The percentages would indicate that they will rebound but that might not come until it is too late.

It took some above-average shooting luck to get Jokinen and Smith to fantasy relevance last season. They were among the best players to own come the fantasy playoffs but we shouldn’t expect that it will happen again.

The big winners in all of this are Yandle and Ekblad, the Panthers’ top defensemen. More scoring depth means increased point opportunities. Yandle and Ekblad have to play this entire forward group. They send breakout passes to the top line and fourth line alike. The better any of these lines are converting those passes to offense, the more assists these two will rack up.

Ekblad, in particular, could use some assists. He has all of eight on the season. The only thing keeping Ekblad relevant is his tremendous shooting. He’s on pace for 257 SOG, second in the league among defensemen.

Defensemen Jason Demers and Michael Matheson lose out on power play time now that the Panthers have the depth to go with four-forward looks on both units. They were of fringe relevance anyhow but now definitely look like waiver fodder.

Finally, the goalies should win as well. It’s been a down year for Roberto Luongo but he has still been above average with a .919 save percentage. More goals at the other end and some stouter defensive play could push him into the elite echelon once again. Luongo hasn’t played enough games to be considered an elite option however, and anyone owning him in their fantasy league would have done well to marry him up with backup James Reimer who has nearly matched Luongo’s performance will starting about 40% of the games.

The Panthers are somehow still in the playoff hunt despite what would have to be considered a nightmare first half. One of their top competitors, the Boston Bruins, just fired one of the league’s best coaches. With as many games as anyone remaining on the schedule, a healthy roster and the carrot of a playoff spot these guys could be in for the kind of second half surge that helps people win fantasy leagues.

Steve Laidlaw is the Managing Editor of Dobber Hockey. Follow him on Twitter @SteveLaidlaw

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