Yahoo Sport UK’s Aintree Festival 2016 – Day Two preview: Friday’s top tips

Yahoo Sport UK has teamed up with the experts at Bet4Causes to bring you a preview of the day’s British racing – and The Night Hawk marks your card.

Over the next two days, we will bring you the analysis of every Aintree Festival race, including today’s four Grade 1 races.

1.40 ALDER HEY CHILDREN’S CHARITY HANDICAP HURDLE (GRADE 3)

2m 4f

FORECAST: Blazer (6/1), Ma du Fou (7/1), Tycoon Prince (8/1), Ibis Du Rheu (10/1), Starchitect (10/1), Virgilio (10/1), Theinval (12/1), Champagne At Tara (14/1), San Benedeto (14/1), Sky Khan (14/1), Whiteout (14/1), Curious Carlos (16/1), Qewy (16/1), Box Office (20/1), Mad Jack Mytton (20/1), Cardinal Palace (25/1), Melodic Rendezvous (25/1), Party Rock (25/1), Buiseness Sivola (33/1), Clondaw Kaempfer (33/1), Foxcub (33/1), Francis Of Assisi (33/1)

ANALYSIS: Given such a competitive race (22 are set to go to post today) it is little wonder that there has been no winning favourite in the last 11 runnings. Double-figure SPs are the norm, with only Sunnyhillyboy (8/1 in 2009) returning single figures.

Owner JP McManus has farmed this race, winning five of the last 18 renewals and he is mob-handed again with Blazer, Champagne At Tara and Box Office. The latter pair are trained by Jonjo O’Neill, who has saddled the winner of this race twice in the last nine years.

Champagne At Tara has champion jockey-elect Richard Johnson aboard. The seven-year-old has been highly tried in the past and was beaten a head last time at Uttoxeter over a similar trip. Blazer was fourth in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham in a blanket finish, with Qewy 11th and last year’s winner Theinval (4lb higher this year) 14th.

Starchitect (below) was talked up prior to staying on strongly in the County Hurdle and takes what looks a needed step up in trip.

Tycoon Prince ran well in novice company but tackles a handicap for the first time, while Ma Du Fou seeks a four-timer on his handicap bow, having scored in a high-class novice’s hurdle at Huntingdon last time.

Ibis Du Rheu had Sky Khan and Whiteout behind when landing the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham, but while he goes up 8lb for that, he may well be able to confirm those placings.

Virgilio won twice at Aintree last year but had heavy ground against him when pulled up in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham in January. He has been off the track since, but looked very progressive before that.

WINNER: IBIS DU RHEU

EACH-WAY: STARCHITECT

2.15 AINTREE TOP NOVICES’ HURDLE (GRADE 1)

2m 103y

FORECAST: Limini (11/10), Buveur D'air (5/2), Agrapart (8/1), Bleu Et Rouge (12/1), Ball D'arc (14/1), North Hill Harvey (16/1), Gwafa (25/1), Petit Mouchoir (25/1), Three Stars (25/1), Marracudja (33/1), Altruism (100/1)

ANALYSIS: 10 of the last 12 winners of this Grade 1 event were either first or second last time out and Nicky Henderson has trained four of the last six winners, having been previously 0-18. There have been no Irish-trained winners this decade and just two since 1977.

Three of the last four favourites have obliged and the favourite has finished P 6 2 1 3 P 2 2 3 1 1 1 4 in the last 13 years.

Eleven are set to go to post, with the Willie Mullins-trained Limini likely to be a warm order following her Mares’ Hurdle win at the Cheltenham Festival. It was her sixth successive victory and her third for the yard. She is the pick of the Mullins’ trio ahead of Bleu Et Rouge and Petit Mouchoir and while she does receive the mares’ allowance, she had a hard race at Cheltenham and this looks tougher against the boys.

Henderson (below) saddles Buveur D’air, who was behind Altior and Min in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at The Festival, yet the 5yo looks highly progressive. That looked very decent form.

Agrapart won at this meeting last year and hosed up at Newbury in the mud last time, but Lizzie Kelly cannot claim her usual allowance this time. If getting a soft lead, he may well be tough to pass on this front-runners’ track.

Ball D’arc swerved the Festival and comes here as winner of three of his last four for Gordon Elliott. This rapidly-improving 5yo won on bad ground at Naas last time, travelling well throughout and is one for the future.

WINNER: BOVEUR D’AIR

EACH-WAY: BALL D’ARC

2.50 MILDMAY NOVICES’ CHASE (GRADE 1)

3m 210y

FORECAST: Blaklion (2/1), Un Temps Pour Tout (5/2), Native River (6/1), Ballyalton (7/1), Roi Des Francs (10/1), Out Sam (12/1), Henri Parry Morgan (16/1), Otago Trail (20/1)

ANALYSIS: Five market leaders have won this in the last 10 years, including three of the last four renewals. The Irish have trained two of the last 11 winners, but neither Nicky Henderson nor Paul Nicholls, who have won six of the last 11 renewals, are represented.

It is still a cracking renewal of this Grade 1 event, with Cheltenham Festival winners Blaklion (RSA Chase) and Un Temps Pour Tout (Ultima Handicap Chase) taking on NH Chase runner-up Native River, and Listed Novices’ Chase winner Ballyalton. Even rank outsider Otago Trail was favourite for a Grade 1 Novices’ chase last time.

Blaklion (below) had a hard race in landing the RSA and was a brave winner, as he had been up with the pace from the outset. He has the best form in the race and may complete the double if his exertions have not taken their toll.

Native River has a bit to find with him, having previously finished 18 lengths behind at Wetherby.

Ballyalton takes a step up in class after his Cheltenham win and has a bit to prove.

Un Temps Pour Tout had a few experienced horses behind him in a Grade 3 handicap, beating a well handicapped former winner of the race. He flew up the hill and is one of the brightest staying prospects around.

Roi Des Francs was keen in the early stages of the RSA Chase and while bang there two out, he faded up the hill and hit the last hard. He has a bit to find with Blaklion.

Otago Trail is interesting. He outclassed his opposition in a Chepstow handicap in January and while beaten favourite when upped into Grade 2 company at Haydock next time, that run may have come a bit soon. Officially, Venetia Williams’ 8yo is rated on a par with Blaklion (154) and just 5lb below Un Temps Pour Tout). This front-runner likes the mud, so any rain will help and he should probably be half his current odds at worst.

WINNER: BLAKLION

EACH-WAY: OTAGO TRAIL

3.25 JLT MELLING CHASE (GRADE 1)

2m 3f 200y

FORECAST: Vautour (2/7), Al Ferof (9/2), God’s Own (14/1), Vibrato Valtat (20/1), Somersby (33/1), Clarcam (50/1)

ANALYSIS: Including last year’s winner, Gold Cup hero Don Cossack, 18 of the last 26 winners of this race had either previously won or had been placed at Aintree. Eight of the last 11 winners were aged between eight and 10.

Four of the last seven winners were sent off favourite. No horse beaten in the race has won it the following year and 22 of the last 25 winners had previously won a Grade 1 race. Just four of the last 11 winners had won last time out.

That final stat is not encouraging for supporters of long-odds-on Vautour (below), who is the only one in the six-strong line-up to have won last time. He avenged his last-strides defeat by Cue Card in the King George with a resounding win in the Ryanair Chase, with Al Ferof almost eight lengths back in fourth. The softer ground will not help Dan Skelton’s runner reverse that form.

Vibrato Baltat was running a big race in the Ryanair but fell too far out to have a view on whether he would have made a race of it. In any case, on last year’s form he has a bit to find with Clarcam, who held him over course and distance at this meeting last year.

Vibrato Valtat has twice beaten Champion Chase fourth God’s Own in their last two meetings and while veteran Somersby remains in great heart, as his Champion Chase fifth showed, his best days are behind him.

WINNER: VAUTOUR

EACH-WAY: CLARCAM

4.05 TOPHAM CHASE (GRADE 3)

2m 3f 200y

FORECAST: Village Vic (15/2), Killer Crow (10/1), Bennys Mist (12/1), Rathlin (12/1), Turban (12/1), As De Mee (14/1), Eastlake (14/1), Minella Reception (14/1), Ruben Cotter (14/1), Bishops Road (16/1), Blood Cotil (16/1), Dromnea (16/1), Fairy Rath (16/1), La Vaticane (16/1), Ballykan (20/1), Cocktails At Dawn (20/1), Dare To Endeavour (20/1), Gray Hession (20/1), Pass The Hat (20/1), Third Intention (20/1), Astracad (25/1), Gallery Exhibition (25/1), Gullinbursti (25/1), Mr Moonshine (25/1), Witness In Court (25/1), Al Alfa (33/1), Distime (33/1), Top Cat Henry (33/1), Corrin Wood (50/1), Rouge Et Blanc (50/1)

ANALYSIS: Never an easy race for punters, with just one winning favourite in the last decade. But if you had followed either Peter Bowen or Nicky Henderson over the last six years, you would be quids-in, as each trainer saddled the winner three times.

Henderson goes for the four-timer with Cocktails At Dawn, who has not run since his lacklustre finish in a Grade 3 at Cheltenham last November. On his Chepstow run in the autumn, he holds As De Mee, who has not won over fences yet and has no experience of these National fences.

Village Vic (below) could not get his own way out in front in the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham. Now back in a handicap, he should make a bold bid to win for a fifth time in six starts.

Bishops Road, who followed up a Sandown with victory in the Haydock Grand National Trial, did not make the cut for Saturday’s feature. This trip looks on the sharp side for him.

Killer Crow was seventh in the Irish Grand National last time but was not far behind Cheltenham winner Empire Of Dirt prior to that (Blood Cotil fifth). That form stacks up and he must be considered.

Bennys Mist won the Grand Sefton over this course in December and was runner-up in this race two years ago. His second in the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury was a fine run and he must go on the shortlist. Minella Reception has been in good form lately on the soft but was behind Benny Mist at Ascot in January.

Fairy Rath, runner-up in this last year, jumps with the choke out and while the ground might be a touch too soft, he should go well. Rathlin, third last year, looks well handicapped on his last win at Ayr.

Gullinbursti was third in a Listed handicap here two years ago and has had a couple of runs to blow away the cobwebs. He has been trained for this and may go well at a price. Eastlake was quite well supported in the Grand Annual and was third in this race two years ago.

WINNER: VILLAGE VIC

EACH-WAY: FAIRY RATH

4.40 SEFTON NOVICES’ HURDLE (GRADE 1)

3m 149y

FORECAST: Ballydine (4/1), Gangster (6/1), Balko Des Flos (7/1), Baoulet Delaroque (7/1), Bellshill (10/1), Ballyoptic (12/1), Tomngerry (12/1), Duke Des Champs (14/1), Vintage Clouds (14/1), Arkwrisht (16/1), Mystical Knight (16/1), Potters Legend (16/1), Yala Enki (16/1), Sandymount Duke (20/1), Ami Desbois (25/1), Ghost River (33/1)

ANALYSIS: The Aintree equivalent of Cheltenham’s Albert Bartlett was won last year by World Hurdle hero Thistlecrack, but this does not look a great renewal. There have been just four winning favourites in the last 13 renewals.

Seeking a hat-trick and stepping up in class, Ballydine was a close second to Barters Hill in the Grade 2 River Don at Doncaster in January. He has had only just five starts under Rules and is unexposed. The winner of that race was subsequently fourth in the Albert Bartlett, so the form-line looks solid.

Gangster was seventh in that contest, having won a Grade 3 previously at Fairyhouse and may well reverse form with stablemate Bilko Des Flos (fifth) with the ground on the sift side. The former also lost a shoe at Cheltenham, so had excuses.

Bellshill and while has yet to prove his stamina over this sort of trip, he did win a Grade 1 novices event at Naas in heavy ground over 2m4f.

Baoulet Delaroque, who rattled up a hat-trick before finding the ground a bit lively in the Coral Cup (when fifth), should appreciate this trip and the easier ground. Paul Nicholls’ (below) 5yo holds a decent chance.

Ghost River and Yala Enki both have something to prove on their displays in the Neptune Investment at Cheltenham. The former was last and the latter pulled up. Mystical Knight has been beaten just once in his last five outings but lacks experience over hurdles, but there was nothing wrong with the performance from Vintage Clouds despite going down in a Grade 2 at Haydock last time. He looks a chaser in the making.

WINNER: BAOULET DELAROQUE

EACH-WAY: GANGSTER

5.15 AINTREE NH FLAT RACE (GRADE 2)

2m 209y

FORECAST: Battleford (7/2), Ballyandy (4/1), Bacardys (5/1), Utility (8/1), Pride Of Lecale (10/1), Any Drama (12/1), Zipple Back (14/1), Bolving (20/1), Jam Session (20/1), Red Six (20/1), Willoughby Court (20/1), Atomix (25/1), Cheque En Blanc (25/1), King Uther (25/1), Rodneythetrotter (25/1), Competition (33/1), Manhattan Spring (33/1), The Minch (33/1)

ANALYSIS: Nigel Twiston-Davies has won four of the last 11 renewals and Cheltenham Champion Bumper winner Ballyandy is allowed to take his chance under a penalty. He carries an extra 4lb, which could make all the difference to the second and third home that day, Battleford and Bacardys.

Four of the last 11 winners of this race had previously run in the Champion Bumper, including two of the last six. All were unplaced. The portents may therefore be good for Pride Of Lecale, who was not beaten far in 11th at Cheltenham.

Utility has had just the one run, a winning effort at Uttoxeter in early December. He is held in very high regard by Jonjo O’Neill and could be anything.

Bolving sports a first-time hood, having looked as though he would come on for the run, despite scoring at Kempton on his debut for Victor Dartnall, who has a good record in bumpers.

Any Drama appears to be progressing quickly and took a Thurles bumper by 22 lengths last time. With a decent pace guaranteed, he cannot be ruled out.

WINNER: BATTLEFORD

EACH-WAY: PRIDE OF LECALE

OTHER MEETINGS

LEICESTER: 1.55 Norse Magic, 2.30 Bahamian Sunshine, 3.05 Lido Lady, 3.40 Lil’s Joy, 4.15 Sayesse, 4.50 Save The Bees, 5.25 Popeswood

NEWCASTLE: 2.05 Lake View Lad, 2.40 Mumgos Debut, 3.15 Cadgers Hole, 3.50 Man Of God, 4.25 King Of The Wolds, 5.00 Ifandbutwhynot, 5.35 Abbey Storm, 6.05 Diego Suarez

WOLVERHAMPTON: 5.50 Blistering Dancer, 6.20 Captain Scooby, 6.50 Rich Again, 7.20 Lorelei, 7.50 Overrider, 8.20 Moueenn, 8.50 Ventura Falcon, 9.20 Lucy The Painter

DUNDALK: 6.00 Peace Envoy, 6.30 Your Pal Tal, 7.00 Loyalty Card, 7.30 Aared, 8.00 Tom Dooley, 8.30 Abraham, 9.00 Sea Of Blue

Bet via Bet4Causes, where 20% of net revenue goes to sporting charities, who include Greatwood, World Horse Welfare and StreetGames.

You must be 18+ in order to bet. Please gamble responsibly http://www.gambleaware.co.uk