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Yahoo Sport UK’s Royal Ascot – Day 2 Preview
Yahoo Sport UK has teamed up with Bet4Causes to bring you a preview of the day’s British racing – and The Night Hawk marks your card.
It is Day Two of the Royal meeting at Ascot and we have the analysis and selections for every race, plus all the other British and Irish meetings taking place on Wednesday, June 15, 2016.
Each day we will provide you with a preview of the day’s racing, offering what the experts feel will be the value bets of the day.
ROYAL ASCOT – DAY TWO
2.30 Jersey Stakes (Group 3) 7f
FORECAST: Castle Harbour (5/1), Gifted Master (7/1), Ibn Malik (8/1), Ribchester (8/1), Thikriyaat (8/1), Haalick (12/1), Herald The Dawn (12/1), Remarkable (12/1), Forge (14/1), Light Music (16/1), Scrutineer (16/1), Steady Pace (16/1), Bolting (20/1), C Note (20/1), Dragon Mall (20/1), Raucous (20/1), Ross Castle (25/1), Calder Prince (33/1), Kentuckyconnection (33/1), Toliman (33/1), Ocean Eleven (100/1)
ANALYSIS: Never an easy race for punters to work out. Favourites have a poor record with just two successful market leaders in the last 14 renewals. Eight of the last 12 winners have been sent off at single-figure odds, however. Three of the last four winners were Irish-trained and Aidan O’Brien has saddled the winner three times.
Castle Harbour represents the John Gosden yard that won this in 2000 with Observatory and comes into this with an unbeaten record after winning both starts this season. Having made a winning debut in soft ground at Newmarket in mid-April, he followed up at York last month in a big field and on quicker ground. He is respected.
The highest-rated horse is Gifted Master, whose bid for a six-timer was thwarted in a Group 2 at Haydock last month on good to soft ground. However, that was over 6f and he had previously landed a 1m Group 3 at Newmarket last autumn, so this step back up in trip should help the Hugo Palmer-trained son of Kodiac.
He has the beating of Ibn Malik on their Autumn Stakes form, but Charles Hills’s representative has yet to run out of the first three in five starts, winning two, including over this trip on good to soft ground in a Listed contest at Newmarket (Scrutineer beaten 2l, with beaten favourite Raucous well held in fifth).
Last year’s Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes winner RIBCHESTER brings Classic form to the table, having finished three-and-a-half lengths behind Galileo Gold in the 2000 Guineas and the Richard Fahey-trained Iffraaj colt likes a bit of cut in the ground.
Thikriyaat has won all three starts by a combined margin of less than a length, twice gaining neck victories over today’s trip, and there may be more to come from Sir Michael Stoute’s Azamour gelding.
Haalick was just behind Raucous at Epsom, but the first-time visor may see that form overturned, and while Remarkable may be the Gosden second-string, he finished with a flourish in defeat at Doncaster last time and may well be the value of the race.
3.05 Queen Mary Stakes (Fillies’ Group 2) 5f
FORECAST: Lady Aurelia (13/8), Roly Poly (8/1), Barroche (10/1), Al Johrah (12/1), Clem Fandango (12/1), Kachess (12/1), Vona (14/1), Jule In The Crown (16/1), Kocollada (16/1), Madam Dancealot (16/1), Stormy Clouds (16/1), Katrine (20/1), Spiaggia (20/1), Camargue (25/1), Reeh (25/1), Quench Dolly (33/1), Simmie (33/1)
ANALYSIS: Not a bad race for punters with six of the last 13 market leaders obliging, including the last two.
American handler Wesley Ward first landed this race in 2009 with Jealous Again and took it again last year with Acapulco. He saddles the once-raced LADY AURELIA and considers the daughter of Scat Daddy his best chance of the meeting.
However, she is a speedball whose 4.5f dirt victory at Keeneland is at odds with the vastly different turf conditions she will face here. She has a big reputation, however.
Roly Poly represents last year’s winning owners Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith and John Magnier. She won in spite of her obvious inexperience over 5f at Naas on her debut and was well held by smart stablemate and Tuesday’s Coventry Stakes winner Caravaggio at the Curragh last month. The ground might not be to her liking again.
Barroche scored in a well-contested novices’ race at Bath 19 days ago. Clive Cox’s runner has a high cruising speed and the ability to quicken, so cannot be ruled out. She may have improved past Jule In The Crown, who beat her at Windsor on her debut.
French raider Al Johrah is unbeaten in two starts, latterly having taken a 5f maiden in heavy ground at Chantilly, although the form’s worth is open to question.
The Tom Dascombe-trained Kachess has stamina as well as speed in her pedigree and poured it on from the front at Goodwood on her debut, looking as though she would go on to better things. She may be the one for place money.
3.40 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes (Fillies’ Group 2) 1m
FORECAST: Usherette (15/8), Jazzi Top (6/1), Lucida (7/1), Always Smile (8/1), Miss Temple City (8/1), Blond Me (10/1), Devonshire (12/1), Furia Cruzada (14/1), Maimara (14/1), Spangled (16/1), Black Cherry (33/1), Volunteer Point (33/1), Excilly (50/1), Bint Dandy (100/1)
ANALYSIS: There are no obvious trends in this mile event. Three of the last 12 winners were sent off either favourite or joint-favourite and Sir Michael Stoute-trained representatives won four of those 12 races.
American interest centres on the Graham Motion-trained Miss Temple City, who has to give weight away to her rivals, having won a Grade 1 at Keeneland on fast ground in April. She was not beaten far in the Coronation Stakes last year, so a replication of that run – on vastly different ground – would make her a leading contender for this £99,243 first prize.
Godolphin hold a strong hand. Lucida was second in last season’s 1000 Guineas and then third in the Coronation Stakes, but flopped when favourite for the Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket last July. She was weak in the market on her return from 10 months off at the Curragh, but stuck on well behind Devonshire, who handles the cut a bit better.
Always Smile should probably have entered this race unbeaten, but was nosed out of the Sandringham Stakes last year by Osaila. Jarred up afterwards, Saeed bin Suroor backed off her and she made her return after an 11-month break in a 19-runner handicap at York, scoring readily. Whether she will appreciate this soft ground is open to question, but there should be more to come.
Godolphin’s best chance seemingly lies with USHERETTE, who has similarly tasted defeat just once in six starts, but has won her last three for trainer Andre Fabre, latterly accounting for Arabian Queen and Amazing Maria in the Group 2 Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket. She drops back in trip today but while a sound surface would suit, plenty of Shamardal’s progeny handle cut in the ground.
Jazzi Top was sent off favourite for that race but was well held. However, the winner had the benefit of match-practice and John Gosden’s Danehill Dancer filly is best judged on her fine second in the Group 1 Prix de L’Opera at Longchamp last October. She rates the obvious alternative.
4.20 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes (Group 1) 1m2f
FORECAST: A Shin Hikari (4/6), Found (7/2), The Grey Gatsby (7/1), Western Hymn (12/1), My Dream Boat (16/1), Tryster (20/1)
HISTORY: The Prince of Wales’s Stakes was first run at Royal Ascot in 1862, a year after the death of Prince Albert. The popular Prince of Wales (later to become King Edward VII) had taken over many of the social duties previously carried out by his mother, Queen Victoria, who continued to remain in mourning for her late husband.
Since 1968, the Prince of Wales’s Stakes has been won by some very high-class horses – Brigadier Gerard in 1972, Mtoto in 1987 and 1988, Bosra Sham in 1997 – who provided trainer Henry Cecil with his fifth Prince of Wales’s Stakes success – and Dubai Millennium in 2000, when the race was upgraded to Group One status for the first time and restricted to four-year-olds and older horses.
Last year, Dermot Weld produced an excellent training performance to get Free Eagle to score on his seasonal reappearance. The four-year-old, who had not run since the previous year’s QIPCO Champion Stakes, held off The Grey Gatsby’s strong late challenge by a short-head.
ANALYSIS: Six of the last 11 market leaders have been successful and no trainer has won back-to-back renewals since Saeed bin Suroor recorded a Godolphin-owned treble between 2000-02.
In truth, this year’s renewal looks no more than an average one. Only one of the six scheduled to line up won last time out and the participants have between them recorded just five wins from a combined 13 starts this season.
Having been beaten a short head in this race last year, and providing the ground does not deteriorate further, The Grey Gatsby will attempt to go one better on his seasonal debut. He ran some fine races in defeat, exclusively at the top level for Kevin Ryan last year, but was no match for Golden Horn and Found in the Irish Champion Stakes on his last run on yielding ground in September. Fitness must be taken on trust.
Found was runner-up in both the Coronation Stakes and the Champion Stakes here last season, but the Breeders’ Cup Turf heroine is fit after having four runs this term, latterly when chasing home (albeit at a distance) Postponed in the Coronation Cup at Epsom.
Western Hymn won a pair of Group 3 races over this trip at Sandown last spring, but has finished runner-up on all three starts at that level this term, including when behind My Dream Boat at Sandown, so is readily opposed.
Tryster is a Group 1 winner, having scored in a soft race at Meydan in March. He does have a turn of foot, but is better suited to surfaces other than soft turf.
The one they all have to beat is A SHIN HIKARI, who took the Group 1 Hong Kong Cup at Sha Tin in December, before landing the top-class Prix D’Ispahan at Chantilly last month in heavy ground.
The Japanese-trained five-year-old may simply gallop his rivals into submission with his high cruising speed and claim the £425,325 first prize.
5.00 Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap) 1m
FORECAST: Convey (6/1), Portage (10/1), Donncha (14/1), Secret Brief (14/1), Spirit Raiser (14/1), Azraff (16/1), Carry On Deryck (16/1), Earth Drummer (16/1), Gm Hopkins (16/1), Hasanour (16/1), Master The World (16/1), Mitchum Swagger (16/1), Balty Boys (20/1), Basem (20/1), Can’t Change It (20/1), Hors De Combat (20/1), Librisa Breeze (20/1), Spark Plug (20/1), Algaith (25/1), Balmoral Castle (25/1), Battle Of Marathon (25/1), Belgian Bill (25/1), Bossy Guest (25/1), Captain Cat (25/1), Glory Awaits (25/1), Instant Attraction (25/1), Man Of Harlech (25/1), Mr Owen (25/1), Boomshackerlacker (33/1), Early Morning (33/1), Emell (33/1), Solar Deity (33/1), Lat Hawill (50/1)
HISTORY: Since its inaugural running in 1843, the Royal Hunt Cup is not only one of the major betting races of the season, but has also established itself as a tremendous spectacle. It is a race that has seen some heavy gambles in the past. In recent times, Old Lucky (1974), backed from 12/1 into 8/1, and Tender Heart (1980), sent off second favourite at 13/2, have both landed substantial punts. Buzzards Bay, victorious in 1982, went on to win the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot later that season.
Fly To The Stars, favourite in 1998 to defy 9st 11lb, could not cope with 20/1 chance Refuse To Lose but went on to success in three Group races culminating in the Group One Lockinge Stakes at Newbury in 1999, demonstrating what a competitive race the Royal Hunt Cup is.
Last season, the 2014 winner Field Of Dream trailed home last as John Gosden annexed a second Royal Hunt Cup with GM Hopkins. Sent off a well-fancied 8/1 shot, Gm Hopkins hit the front a furlong out and stayed on gamely to repel the challenge of Temptress by a neck.
ANALYSIS: A race loved by the bookmakers, as it is notoriously hard to find the winner. Six of the last eight winners have returned with double-figure Starting Prices and just two market leaders have prevailed since 1990.
Convey went close on his first handicap start at York last month, despite finding trouble in running and finished well over 1m. Sir Michael Stoute does well with late-maturing types and on his latest start (only the sixth run of his life), he improved again to get within a neck of Home Of The Brave in a 7f Group 3 at Haydock. The step back to 1m should suit and he appears ahead of the handicapper off his mark of 106.
Portage has shown his liking for a stiff mile with ease in the ground went close in the Irish Cambridgeshire last August. There was a lot to like about his win in a Listed race over 10f at the Curragh on his seasonal bow and he carries a 5lb penalty as a result.
Fellow Godolphin representative and Lincoln Handicap winner Secret Brief goes up just 4lb for his soft-ground Doncaster success. He is tough and versatile ground-wise, so must be considered. Battle Of Marathon (3rd), Man Of Harlech (5th), Emell (6th) and Lat Hawill (21st) all re-oppose.
The Robert Eddery-trained DONNCHA was not far behind Convey at York, not helping himself with a tardy start, but he still looked unlucky, having his path blocked at a crucial stage. He made up plenty of ground when seeing daylight and may well reverse that form.
Master The World was just a length behind Donncha and while he looks to perhaps need a bit further, David Elsworth’s hardy handicapper will like this soft ground and may well be in the mix at a big price.
Meydan handicap winner Carry On Deryck, Nottingham scorer Spirit Raider and last year’s winner GM Hopkins are others worth consideration.
5.35 Sandringham Handicap (Fillies’ Listed) 1m
FORECAST: Persuasive (6/1), Anamba (8/1), Diploma (8/1), Aljuljalah (10/1), Dolce Strega (10/1), Mix And Mingle (12/1), Quality Time (12/1), Czabo (14/1), Make Fast (14/1), Raaqy (14/1), Blue Bayou (16/1), Mise En Rose (16/1), Diamond Fields (20/1), Pure Diamond (20/1), Radiantly (20/1), Alamode (25/1), Classe Vendome (25/1), Great Page (25/1), Gypsy Eyes (25/1), Opal Tiara (25/1), Sharaakah (25/1), Light Up Our World (33/1), Planchart (33/1), Promised Money (33/1), Yeah Baby Yeah (33/1), Rebel Surge (50/1)
ANALYSIS: Another ridiculously fiendish handicap to fathom, with the field headed by Persuasive, who has won all three starts (two of them on all-weather surfaces), including when defying a 7lb rise, quickening up to land a Chelmsford City fillies’ handicap off a mark of 87. She holds Mise En Rose (3rd) on that form, but has another 7lb rise to contend with.
On only her second start last September, ANAMBA chased home the well-regarded Coolmore, who was subsequently fifth in the 1000 Guineas. Her third start and seasonal bow saw Mick Halford’s Shamardal filly scoot to a two-length win on good ground in a big-field Listed 7f race at Naas. She has plenty of speed, so this extra furlong may be a slight concern, but she seems suited to the likely soft ground.
HM The Queen has two representatives and each holds a fine chance of helping along her 90th Birthday celebrations. Make Fast, trained by Andrew Balding, was touched off by Smuggler’s Moon at Epsom and shaped as though she would get the mile. She handles soft ground well. Diploma, trained by Sir Michael Stoute, is coming back in trip, having appreciated 10f at York when scoring readily on her seasonal bow. Bred in the purple, she is by Dubawi out of a Montjeu mare, so this ease underfoot is not going to trouble her.
Aljujalah had no chance with the highly-regarded Nemoralia at York on her return to action, but holds Czabo on that form. The former may need a bit further to be effective but she is in the right hands with Roger Varian and that was only the third run of her life. She is entitled to come on for it.
There is not a lot of Dolce Strega, but she is tough and versatile ground-wise, as shown when landing a 7f Group 3 at the Curragh last time. She is of interest if she gets the mile.
The lightly-raced Raaqy would probably get further but will relish the likely strong pace. Opal Tiara, who was highly tried as a juvenile, will improve from her seasonal debut and should be in the mix.
Quality Time was not beaten far in a 7f Lingfield Group 3 last time and can be considered along with Mix And Mingle, who was a fine seventh in the 1000 Guineas on her first try over a mile.
LUCKY 15 SELECTIONS
LADY AURELIA (Ascot 3.05, NAP)
DONNCHA (Ascot 5.00, nb)
ROSEBRIDE (Ripon 7.00)
CUPACOFFEE (Hamilton Park 2.10)
OTHER SELECTIONS:
HAMILTON PARK: 2.10 Cuppacoffee, 2.45 Love Dreams, 3.20 Chaplin Bay, 3.55 Simply Clever, 4.35 Know Your Name, 5.10 Incurs Four Faults, 5.45 Henry Smith
UTTOXETER: 2.20 Rocklander, 2.55 Athou Du Nord, 3.30 Master Dee, 4.05 Touch Of Steel, 4.45 Goldray, 5.20 Brook, 5.55 Yukon Delta
RIPON: 6.30 Pabusar, 7.00 Rosebride, 7.30 Shafafya, 8.00 Ordinal, 8.30 Eisha Flower, 9.00 Wishing Well
CHELMSFORD CITY: 6.10 Island Vision, 6.40 Taper Tantrum, 7.10 King Crimson, 7.40 Serena Grae, 8.10 Gentlemen, 8.40 Teversham, 9.10 Dot Green
WEXFORD: 5.50 Cradle Mountain, 6.20 Emma Beag, 6.50 To Choose, 7.20 Magnetic Force, 7.50 Rockwood Rosie, 8.20 The Conker Club, 8.50 Smaoineamh Alainn
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