Champions League: Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid - 5 ways it will be won or lost

Even when it feels like Spain’s stranglehold on Europe is lessening, you can’t look beyond either Madrid side to win it all. Monaco have impressed the world with their performances this season and made everyone take note that there’s more than one good team in France nowadays. Juventus, undisputed kings of Italy, but desperate to rule Europe again. It’s been too long – and lord knows Gianluigi Buffon deserves a Champions League winner’s medal. Yet whoever wins the other tie will enter the final as underdogs.

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The battle of Madrid is a complex one. It almost feels like Diego Simeone has a personal vendetta with Europe’s biggest trophy. Two finals, two defeats, both heart-breaking. The last of which forced him to run back to Argentina and not field calls from anyone. He needed time and space, to reflect, to decide whether he wanted another shot at winning it all. In the end he decided he would go again.

His rival, Zinedine Zidane, won the cherished prize at the first time of asking. Less than six months into the job and he made it look easy. Well, not easy, but you know what I mean. The young pretender who gets everything right even when he gets it wrong must feel untouchable. Pressure continues to build on Zidane but he seems undeterred. The weight of the world on his shoulders yet you wouldn’t know it.

Here are five key moments where this game will be won or lost.

THE FULL-BACKS

Marcelo and Dani Carvajal are the two unsung heroes of this Real Madrid side. In recent weeks, after the afro-sporting Brazilian’s impressive display against Bayern Munich, the world has noticed his rapid improvement. People believed Marcelo was just a poor man’s Roberto Carlos, a lazy link because they have the same nationality and play for the same club. The reality is he’s more well-rounded than Carlos. He might not score one physics-defying freekick in a 100, but Marcelo is crucial to Madrid’s success.

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It’s possible that Danilo could start but Carvajal would be the wiser, more logical choice. Like Marcelo he offers an outlet the forwards cannot. Cristiano Ronaldo, Isco nor James Rodriguez like to hug the touchline and none of them are particularly fast. The crosses from out wide will be important especially as Ronaldo finds himself playing more and more as a striker.

For Atletico Madrid it’s a completely different story. Filipe Luis is enjoying a fine run of form, even popping up on the scoresheet multiple times which is a rare sight. He embodies what Simeone wants from his men, a tireless worker who will fight over every blade of grass. Defensively sound too, Madrid will look to break down Atletico on the other flank.

And here is where Atletico’s biggest issue lies: at right back. Juanfan, Sime Vrsaljko and stand in full back Jose Maria Gimenez are all ruled out through injury. This means Lucas Hernandez, who penned a new deal yesterday, will come in to give it a shot. A natural centre back, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him tuck in and offer little going forward. It’s important he gets up to speed quickly as Real Madrid are likely to be on the front foot for most of the game.

GRIEZMANN VS RONALDO

Cristiano Ronaldo continues to divide opinion among rival fans. There’s an obvious decline in his all-round game in the last 12-18 months but he continues to make valuable contributions to his team. Without him they wouldn’t have got past Bayern Munich in the last round and even a limited Ronaldo is better than most strikers around. And I say striker because he’s no longer a winger.

You can do step-overs until your heart’s content but without blistering pace you’re basically Luis Nani. Ronaldo is of course much better than the Valencia man but his threat from out wide simply doesn’t exist anymore. The real damage occurs when he drifts into the box and the previously mentioned full-backs whip in crosses for him to attack. It’s almost the same role he plays for Portugal only with much better teammates around him.

While for Antoine Griezmann he must feel a little ‘always the bridesmaid, never the bride’. He came up short for France in Euro 2016 despite being his country’s star performer. Griezmann arrived in the aftermath of Atletico’s LaLiga triumph and only has a single Spanish Super Cup winner’s medal to speak of. Crucial to their play and maintained success alongside rivals Real and Barcelona, you sense he needs a big honour to fulfil his potential.

Speculation continues to swirl around Spain about Real making a bid for Griezmann this summer. Until now a pact has blocked transfers between the two clubs. If this is a possibility, and not just media mind games to upset Atletico fans, what greater stage to prove his worth than by knocking out his potential suitors?

ATLETICO’S FORM AT THE BERNABEU

Most teams would be intimidated by the prospect of facing Real Madrid in front of a sell out Santiago Bernabeu. So many big stadiums can fall silent due to the influx of tourists in the stands but for European nights, the Bernabeu truly comes alive. If you aren’t ready for it or get lost in the occasion, you’ll be blown away and the tie could be over as quickly as it began.

That isn’t the case for Atletico though. They are unbeaten in their last three visits to the Bernabeu, winning two and drawing the other. There is no fear factor as almost the entire side has experienced what it is to play in these clutch matches. Simeone knows how to frustrate the crowd and Real plus, due to his neighbour’s defensive weaknesses, they will get chances on the break.

IN EUROPE, REAL HAVE A HOLD OVER ATLETICO

Despite that fine record domestically, in Europe, Real are the kings of this fixture. Maybe the pressure gets to Simeone’s charges, maybe Real find another gear, but it’s the white side of Madrid which ultimately celebrates in the Champions League.

Real beat Atletico 1-0 over two legs in 2015. The only goal coming at the Bernabeu after the first leg finished 0-0. The only other two meetings in the Champions League were the final defeats in 2014 and 2016 respectively. Three consecutive seasons Real have been the kryptonite and thwarted Atletico’s lust to be European kings.

It’s important for Simeone to banish the demons, for his own sanity, and end the run of losses to Real Madrid. After the loss in last season’s final he considered his options, whether he could drive this team to the top. Some have even speculated a win and another in the subsequent final might see Simeone leave. I don’t think that’s the case but there’s a lot riding on this game.

THE ISCO FACTOR

With Gareth Bale once again on the sidelines the people of Madrid turn to Isco in their times of need. The Spanish media treat Isco as if he were their son, defending him against all detractors and demanding he starts ahead of Bale regardless. Injuries have hurt the Welshman’s case for a starting berth and Isco, whenever handed the reigns, never fails to impress.

After sitting out the weekend’s victory most believe this was to keep him fresh for the match against Atletico Madrid. If you remember the Madrid derby at the Vicente Calderon, Isco was the real star of the show. Cristiano bagged a hat-trick but Isco, sitting in his favoured number 10 role, caused all the damage. Tonight, he’ll have another chance to state his case for being first choice.

And it’s not just Isco who needs to back up his claims but also Real Madrid. They are desperate for the Spaniard to sign a new deal to end the speculation surrounding his future. Reports a couple of weeks ago suggested terms had been agreed but until it’s official, no one is going to feel assured. This is Isco’s moment to shine – he simply can’t afford to fluff his lines.