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Five things... That would happen if England lost a Champions League place

1 Coefficients get sexy
With English clubs continuing to look as comfortable in Europe as a Greek bank, the prospect of the Premier League losing one of its four cherished – and long taken for granted – Champions League places looms larger than ever. England is currently third in Uefa’s coefficient rankings table, 3.47 points ahead of Italy. That might sound like random numbers and jargon now but, in the catastrophic event of fourth place being downgraded to a Europa League spot, improving the coefficient score would become a national obsession. The result of every European match affects the points. So any player representing an English team in Europe would be pulling on the shirt for their country’s coefficient, not just their club.

2 Death of the Top Four
The Premier League promised land since the 2001/2002 season, when England’s Champions League representation increased one place from three, the Top Four is more than just some positions in a league table. It’s the seat of power. The elite. For a while the term referred to four specific teams: Man Utd, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, before that cartel was scattered by the emergence of Manchester City. But this merely made entry to the exclusive club trickier; losing a Champions League place would shatter it altogether. The Top Three would be something very different to the Top Four: more exclusive, more brutal, and with more washed-up idols locked outside, desperate to be let in.

3 Arsenal become Tottenham
It’s not unfair to say that England’s fourth Champions League place has kept Arsene Wenger in a job for the best part of a decade. Six fourth-placed finishes in nine seasons kept the Gunners clinging on to their place in England’s elite, despite a lack of trophies and transfer clout. But losing Cesc Fabregas and Robin van Persie would be nothing compared to being deprived of that precious fourth spot – the club’s most valuable asset. The superior financial muscle of Chelsea, City and United would make Arsenal perennial Top Three outsiders before a ball had been kicked. Or in other words, they would be in the same position as their north London rivals Spurs are now.

4 Europa League gets bigger
Europe’s second club competition has long been the ugly, spotty, smelly little brother of the Champions League that nobody likes. But if England were to lose a place in the more prestigious tournament, things would have to change. Not that the Europa League should get too excited; it would still have no real friends. But some of those clubs that despise it would be forced to take it seriously. England’s sustained poor performance in the Europa League is a principal reason for its Uefa coefficient rankings slump, but it could also provide salvation. If the clubs who miss out on the Top Three perform well in the Europa League then that, perversely, would be their best way of restoring a fourth Champions League place and thereby avoiding having to hang out in the Europa League ever again. The automatic Champions League place for the winners would be another incentive for big teams to reluctantly slum it for a season (or more).

5 Philippe Coutinho signs for Sassuolo
Even with four Champions League places available, Liverpool look like plucky outsiders. The removal of another would batter them further down the Premier League hierarchy and leave them floating around in obscurity with the likes of West Ham and Everton. Long gone will be the days of presumptuously poaching Alberto Aquilani and Andrea Dossena from the Italians. Instead, the fourth-placed team in Serie A (that’s currently Sassuolo) will be able to lure away Coutinho with Champions League football and all the cash that brings. That prospect may sound unlikely, but if England and Italy repeat their European performances of last season, Serie A will leapfrog the Premier League for the first time in more than a decade. For England’s top clubs, there is every reason to be afraid.

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