Formula 1: Five things to look out for at the Bahrain Grand Prix

Bahrain? Bah-humbug, more like

Tyres (new rules better than old, in the same way that old string vests are better than hypothermia); Mercedes (please don’t sort out your sluggish starts lads, give us another couple of races at least); Ferrari (fingers crossed that Vettel might split the Mercs, if the Italians don’t have a five-year-old doing strategy again); midfield battles (worth the ticket price alone, which is just as well); qualifying (ah, that).

No, look over there

Now here’s what F1 bigwigs will be talking about. Bernie.

If he’s shooting his mouth off, it’s for a reason. If he’s curiously quiet, it’s for a reason.

Bernie Ecclestone made F1 what it is, Bernie sold out, and he and his family are worth £3.2billion, according to those nice folk at Forbes. But he doesn’t control the sport – with all that money in the bank, he still can’t get it all his own way in F1.

OK, pay attention. Ten years ago, private equity house CVC borrowed roughly $2billion – more than half from RBS – to buy a controlling stake in the sport from some banks, after a few years of financial turmoil in the world of F1.

Since then, CVC has sold half its stake and made just shy of $4.5billion in the process, while retaining control of F1 through voting rights.

Got that? More than doubled its money and still kept control. It may be the most lucrative private equity deal ever struck.

There have been failed attempts to buy out the 35 per cent of F1 that CVC still owns and, this week, Bernie said there were buyers who had agreed a price; it all depended on whether CVC wanted to sell.

Well, if the seller hasn’t agreed a price, that’s not much of an agreement, but at least we know Bernie is still master of saying nothing in a controversial fashion.

Next up, conspiracy theories

But something’s afoot. Bernie made his claims in the Mail on Sunday, and that wasn’t a PR accident. No way did he accidentally get interviewed by that title and then accidentally let slip that two buyers had decided on a price.

Elsewhere, there are some who suspect Bernie is encouraging the debacle over qualifying rules to drive down the value of F1 and make it more likely that CVC will be bought out.

Further, much further, down the food chain, smaller teams continue to struggle despite the sport’s underlying profits (in excess of $250million), and fans bemoan the terrestrial TV death spiral that F1 is locked in as big-money deals take the sport to pay-to-view only within the next few years.

The big beasts of F1 are, like so many dinosaurs, utterly imperious in their own specialities, be that going faster, destroying the competition or finding the best mates with which to seal the deal. They just don’t work so well together when it comes to looking after planet F1.

Anyway, we know what happened to the dinosaurs.

Qualifying. Do we have to?

While the politicing is going on behind the scenes, there will, hopefully, be some action on the track. Mercedes and Ferrari will be using a different mix of tyres over the weekend, with Mercedes having more soft rubber, so watch to see how pit strategy plays out – particularly if cooler temperatures favour the softest compounds in this first night race of the year.

Unless there’s another last-minute change of heart, the woeful new qualifying system will see Hamilton or Rosberg land pole position, with the slower of the two forced to change into his PJs before waving the chequered flag on the final, frustrating, quali session.

In the absence of any PJ action, the last few minutes of qualifying will be notable only for the absence of anything to watch – still, at least we’ll be treated to Martin Brundle’s glorious grumpy old man act, if we haven’t already gone off to make a cuppa.

Dicing in the dark

Come Sunday, we’ll be looking for Ferrari to use their clever clutch system to deliver another scorching start, like they did two weeks ago in Melbourne.

Hamilton won’t want his team-mate Rosberg to outscore him for a second race so fingers crossed for some proper Mercedes tussles, and don’t be surprised to see Hamilton win his third Bahrain Grand Prix in three years.

Further down the grid, F1’s surly teenager of choice, Max Verstappen, has declared war on his Toro Rosso partner Carlos Sainz Jnr. This pair are well matched and sparks – both metaphorical and literal – will fly if they are close on track. Listen to those broadcasts from Verstappen’s cockpit to see if he learned any lessons from his self-defeating behaviour in Melbourne, or whether he’ll be getting detention again.

There will be lots of interest to see if Grosjean can bring newcomers Haas home in the points for a second time, after his superb showing in Australia – not least from those teams unhappy at how much Ferrari kit Haas have at their disposal.

At Red Bull, Kvyat is now driving for his career, after his dismal weekend in Oz and team-mate Ricciardo’s impressive fourth place.

Crystal balls and sticky sand

Despite being a ‘point-and-squirt’ circuit with few challenges for the drivers, Bahrain can produce cracking races, even if the Herman Tilke design isn’t to everyone’s tastes, and it is a particularly good predictor of champions – eight of the 11 winners here have gone on to lift the Drivers’ title, and ten of the 11 winning teams have lifted the Constructors’ trophy.

One other feature of the Sakhir track is that it’s surrounded by so much desert that the organisers spray adhesive on the sand, to stop it blowing on to the circuit.

Yes, they glue the desert down. It almost makes the sport’s financial shenanigans look mundane. Almost.

Now, if they could just spray a little of that desert glue on those Mercedes, we might have a race on our hands.