Under Pressure: Manchester City v Arsenal shows how far Wenger has fallen

Martin Keown is an incisive thinker. It is his gift of insight which allowed him to favourably compare Arsene Wenger to Pep Guardiola this week.

He believes that Guardiola is from the Wenger school of coaching, and that he follows the Wenger method of not worrying about the strengths and dangers of his opponent, but rather he focuses on the talents at his disposal. This, according to Keown, is one of the reasons that Guardiola is so successful.

This is, of course, demonstrably false. A cursory look at the books and blogs written about Guardiola will tell you many things, but they come back to a few key points. One is that Guardiola’s belief in an attacking, short passing game comes from his time at Barcelona where they traditionally played an attacking, short passing game.

Allied to that is a belief in the usefulness of closing down the opposition across the pitch with a studied process, winning the ball back swiftly and to take advantage of any poor positioning.

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The second, according to the book Pep Confidential and other articles, is that Guardiola is close to obsessive in his thinking. Not just in his general beliefs and approach to training, but in his particular tailoring of tactics and personnel when it comes to facing up against the toughest opponents.

Whether it is dropping a central midfielder back by a couple of yards for a specific purpose in a game, and whether any of this really makes a huge difference when you have Lionel Messi, or hundreds of millions of pounds to spend on transfers, it doesn’t matter.

Guardiola is not a manager from the school of Wenger. He is a product of Barcelona and of his own particular hard work. He may admire Wenger, and learned something from him, but he is no disciple.

In truth, there appear to be few managers and ex-players who were in thrall to Wenger. His initial advantages in England have been arbitraged and competed away by managers willing to copy or learn new methods, and by the influx of foreign players and managers.

The advantage of introducing creatine to British football was only useful until other clubs started using it, too. An initial edge had been reduced to table stakes.

Similarly, the importance of diet gave Tony Adams and others at Arsenal the chance to significantly improve their fitness and longevity, but all clubs now have their nutrition experts. Simply eating broccoli is now the bare minimum.

Wenger’s other platform for success was a knowledge of foreign markets that allowed him to pick up young, European talent at reduced prices to mainstream targets, giving him the chance to stretch a budget that would not normally compete with Manchester United and other, richer clubs.

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As scouting networks became more extensive, and it became the norm for all clubs to stock as much young talent as they could manage in their youth teams, Wenger’s expertise was matched and exceeded by other clubs.

None of this has served to make Wenger a poor manager, but it means that he is no longer one of the best, or anything particular special in terms of his effectiveness. Over the summer there were stories about the Arsenal board wanting to make changes from above onto the structure of the club on the playing and transfer side.

There appears to have been little serious progress made, and it appears that Wenger is content to try the same methods every season, in the hope that finally they will come good again. He had his best chance of vindication in the season that Leicester won the league, but his club were again beset by their own trademark funk, and they took no succour from beating Spurs into second. It was simply another missed opportunity.

Wenger and Arsenal face Guardiola this Sunday. Guardiola is a man who took a year off after his first senior management job, knowing that he would be better served by taking a break and refreshing himself. He gave himself the chance to adapt to a new club at Bayern, and while he failed to match the heights of Barcelona, they were an impressive side with a palpably different approach to the game.

Something similar might well be underway at City, as Kevin De Bruyne develops into one of the best midfielders, if not the best midfielder, in Europe. City’s performances since the start of the season have been strikingly ruthless and entertaining.

While he has not produced any kind of tactical quirk that he’s known for, Guardiola has not simply attempt to recreate Bayern or Barcelona at the Etihad, he is creating a new team, with new players.

Wenger, meanwhile, is still attempting the same. Beset by the same problems, he will soon lose his two best players, Mesut Ozil and Alexis Sanchez, because they prefer the chance to win trophies rather than wait for success to magically appear.

The defence, midfield and attack are all perfectly fine if you want to finish top six. Three years ago, the same qualities would have got him into the top four without hassle. 10 years ago, the top three would have been likely, and two decades ago it would win titles.

The only change is that Arsenal’s aggression has been exorcised in an attempt to focus on technique. Perhaps it is unfair to say Wenger has not changed at all, but the one big change he did make was for the worse.

Arsenal’s weakened side were booed off in midweek against Red Star Belgrade. Jack Wilshere was there, once a potential talisman, now a reminder that Wenger is tempted to give the same under-performing player his third last chance to stay at the club. Martin Keown may watch the game this weekend and see some striking similarities, but everyone else will expect the differences to be clear.