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Euro 2016: Group B analysis and predictions
Rabah Sherif takes a look at Group B, home of England, Russia, Wales and Slovakia
Runaway Leaders:
England
You never know what to expect with England. Which team will turn up for them? The perennial underachievers that walk into every other showpiece with a team dubbed the “golden generation” by the unrelenting English media, or the underdog England that surpasses expectations and return home amidst a heroes welcome?
The former bows out at the quarter-final stage and usually pins its elimination on a scapegoat; either a player who missed a penalty or another who takes his marching orders, whilst the latter, on the other hand, usually either goes on to win it or, at the very least, makes the semi-final stage. Make no mistake about it, it really is hard to determine what this year’s England holds in store for us.
There is a sense of cautious optimism surrounding this “different” England team that boasted both the second highest goal-scoring tally in qualification (second to Poland) and the second meanest defense (second to Romania). That’s not to mention the only team with a 100% qualification record. Admittedly, Roy Hodgson has moulded a team comprised mainly of unheralded youngsters who are, paradoxically, both hungry for glory and lacking in requisite experience. Other than Wayne Rooney (111 caps), James Milner (60 caps), Joe Hart (59 caps) and Gary Cahill (43 caps) it’s hard to see where the experience will come from once push comes to shove. That being said, the youthful exuberance about this team makes for some compelling argument.
The likes of Kyle Walker, Danny Rose, Eric Dier, Dele Alli and Harry Kane have been part and parcel of a Tottenham team that reached unprecedented heights last season thanks to Mauricio Pochettino. And they’re not merely there to make the numbers. There is a very good chance that every single one of them will be in Hodgon’s starting eleven come June 11th.
Add these names to Nathaniel Clyne, John Stones, Raheem Sterling, Chris Smalling, Ryan Bertrand, Ross Barkley, Jordan Henderson, Daniel Sturridge, Marcus Rashford and Jack Wilshere and you most probably have England’s team for the next decade (and that’s not to mention the likes of Luke Shaw, Andros Townsend and Danny Drinkwater of course).
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It is Jack Wilshere’s name in particular, that is stirring the most controversy. His inclusion in the squad on the back of a little under a few games last season is dominating so much of the headlines that people forget that this is a player who was undroppable during the qualifiers. In fact, there is an argument that he was the team’s best player throughout qualification. Jack Wilshere, lest we forget, was awarded six man of the match awards during his seven games in qualification. He is the player who attempted the most successful passes in this England team and the most dribbles. And he’s honestly been around for so long that people tend to forget that he’s only 24. When fit, this England team should ultimately be built around him, not without him.
Wayne Rooney is another. Should he start as an attacker? Is he best deployed from deep? And if in midfield, is he to start at the tip of the diamond or as a wide player in a 4-3-3? Should he even start at all? Dilemma after dilemma for Roy Hodgson and co. But again, the question of whether to drop England’s record goal-scorer (both in history and during their qualification) shouldn’t really be asked.
This is a man vital to England’s chances. His experience, tenacity and passing range are paramount if England is to go all the way. So then if and when he starts, who will thus make way? Jamie Vardy is this season’s success story and his directness, pace and sharpness (unbeknownst to most managers) could take teams by surprise. Deli Alli is a Gazza in the making and there is an aura and unpredictability about him that can open up defenses. Ross Barkley has had an inconsistent season, yet his pace, power and technique are admirable. Raheem Sterling is the most likely to make way, but even he has shown a different animal in him when pulling on the national shirt. Sleepless nights aplenty for Roy in store.
Strengths:
Offensive options, and many of them in fact. For the first time in years, an England team boasts a formidable attacking unit with a plethora of options available from the bench. Marcus Rashford is one to look out for in specific. The Manchester United prodigy has had a season to remember and his fearlessness and composure could ultimately add a different dimension to an England team chasing a goal.
Harry Kane, however, is this team’s golden boy. His goal-scoring exploits in France could catapult his team to the summit of glory. There is no better forward in English football right now. In fact, there has been no better forward in English football since Alan Shearer. His movement and running, ability to hold the ball and composure; both 30 yards from goal with a curler or simple tap-ins from crosses, make him England’s most complete forward in generations. Make no mistake, Harry Kane will be England’s key player this summer.
Weakness:
Other than trying to appease his captain, Roy Hodgson should be wary of an erratic backline. It’s hard to envisage what he’d give for a John Terry or a Rio Ferdinand or a Sol Campbell right now. Hodgson’s decision to opt for three natural center backs only could easily come back to haunt him.Chris Smalling has improved on leaps and bounds this season but there is little to suggest he’d be able to lift a cumbersome line. John Stones (a more natural ball-player than he is a defender) andGary Cahill have both had seasons to forget. Hodgson has gone for style over substance, so expect no watertight defense.
Expected Lineup:
How will they fare?
England should take control of Group B. Their match against Wales might ultimately prove a stumbling block but 7 points should be easily within ask. Their second round opponents should be the highest placed 3rd team; most likely one of Turkey, Iceland or Sweden (in that order) and it’s when they reach the quarter-finals that the going really starts to get tough. Portugal, Italy or Belgium are all perilous opposition and England would need to defy the history books in order to make it past the former two in specific. Assuming England pass the test with flying colors, they then meet Spain (or even Poland) in the semi-finals. Hitherto, cautiously optimistic. More than that, a tad too far.
Expected Finish: semi-final exit to Spain
The Contenders:
Wales
Chris Coleman has undergone a Welsh renaissance and the fact that they enter their first international tournament in 58 years is in itself an under-rated accomplishment. An impressive qualifying campaign that included only a one-time loss (to Bosnia away) and an impressive 4 goals conceded (4th best defense) is one remarkable feat for a team so conspicuously dependent on one man. But no, this Wales team is no FC Gareth Bale.
Chris Coleman sets out his troops in a formidable 3-4-2-1 with particular emphasis on wide full back play. Three positions are key to Coleman’s game-plan: Chris Gunter (Reading) and Neil Taylor (Swansea), the fullbacks, are Wales’ main attacking outlets from wide. Joe Ledley (Crystal Palace), if fit, is the team’s midfield enforcer and the bedrock in the middle of the park. Alternatively, there is a Premier League winner in the form of Andy King (Leicester) more than able to pull the strings. Finally, the less-heralded Hal Robson-Kanu (Reading), the winger-cum-forward who drags defenses out of positions making way for the likes of Bale and Ramsey to wreak havoc. This is a compact unit, with the whole much greater than the sum of its parts.
Strengths:
The three man defense Coleman employs is mostly unheard of in today’s top international competition but ensures that his team are compact when on the defensive, and very quick and dynamic going forward. Gareth Bale is undoubtedly the team’s main man having scored 7 and set up 2 of his team’s 11 goals scored during qualification. He is a different beast when pulling on his nation’s colors and it will be interesting to see whether he would take the competition by storm (he does enjoy the pressure when playing for his beloved nation).
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Aaron Ramsey, as well, is key. The Arsenal midfield lynchpin is Wales’ driving force when moving forward and his final delivery, and oft-under rated goal-scoring prowess, could definitely come in handy against superior opposition. And finally the impenetrable Ashley Williams is a beast of a defender who will make or break Wales’ aspirations in this tournament. If Wales are to make it out of this balanced group, I’m predicting Williams to be a star.
Weakness:
Despite having the aforementioned Hal-Robson Kanu atop the team, he is not indeed a striker. The absence of a proven center-forward could ultimately come back to haunt them. Sam Voakes is an option, but he is not the player to offer them that firepower upfront.
Set pieces, as well, is a concern. Wales have conceded a fair share of goals (during both qualification games a la Bosnia and recent friendly games) due to a lack of strong aerial presence. Food for thought, Mr. Coleman.
Expected Lineup:
How will they fare?
This is a finely balanced group and with a win and two draws, I am predicting Wales to end up as group runners-up. Their second round tie should be interesting with one of Austria or Iceland potentially awaiting. Again these are teams I am willing to take a gamble on and I’m expecting Wales to make it to the quarter-finals. Here they meet France. Surely no chance.
Expected Finish: quarter-final exit to France.
Russia
There’s no denying that Leonid Slutsky has revolutionized Russian football after Fabio Capello’s ill-fated reign in charge. Russia, under Capello, were in a perilous position and in serious danger of missing out on the France showpiece. Enter Slutsky, who has taken his successful CSKA Moscow blueprint and applied it to the national team. Slutsky lines up his troops (for both club and country) in his favored 4-2-3-1 with particular emphasis on speed and direct wing play.
Strengths:
Key players in Slutsky’s game-plan are Igor Akinfeev, Sergel Ignashevich, Oleg Shatov and Artem Dzyuba. Fans of Football Manager in particular might lament Akinfeev’s unfulfilled promise compared to his video game heroics, but still this is a very competent goalkeeper who is equally capable of the very finest of shot stopping and the most erratic of blunders. Ignashevich is a 36 year old rock of a center-back who helped keep 5 clean sheets out of 9 qualification games he appeared in.
Shatov, though, is the ultimate player to keep your eye on. Having started off his career as a Futsal player, there is an eye-catching Brazilian touch to how Shatov strikes the ball. Andres Villas-Boas, the recent Zenit manager, reaped the benefits of Shatov’s technique by giving him a free-role during his recent title charge. With pace in abundance and a killer of a cross, Shatov is paramount to Russia’s counter-attacking game plan.
Weakness:
The absences of Yuri Zhirkov, Alan Dzagoev and Igor Denisov to injury have been particular blows to take.
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Additionally, even though Slutsky can lay claim to a solid defense, his center-back pairing of Ignashevich and Berezutski are not getting any younger (36 and 33 years respectively) so facing a pacy attacking unit could be a cause for concern.
Expected Lineup:
How will they fare?
Assuming England take control of the group, three points might suffice for Russia to make it out of the group (most likely against Slovakia). I predict Wales to take additional points off England so Russia will most likely end up in 3rd place. Qualifying as either the 2nd or the 3rd best placed 3rd team, they will then take on one of Spain or Germany in the next round. This will ultimately prove the last laugh.
Expected Finish: second round exit to Germany
Slovakia
European Championship debutants Slovakia could prove to be a tough nut to crack. Six years ago, a famous win over Italy (in the 2010 World Cup) sealed their passage to an international knockout round for the first time in their history, and it’s hard to see this feat repeating itself.
Jan Kozak lines up his charges in a compact 4-2-3-1 giving license to roam to Napoli free-scoring midfield dynamo Marek Hamsik.
Strengths:
Despite their little-decorated history, Slovakia will be a very tough team to beat. Their collectiveness and spirit makes them very hard to break down. Jan Durica and Martin Skrtel form a solid center-back pairing, and the likes of Vladimir Weiss and Miroslav Stoch (their two wingers) are electric on the break. Although this is a team conceivably dependent on Marek Hamsik, it is Juraj Kucka (of AC Milan) that warrants specific attention. A dynamic box-to-box player, both able to break up play and go on the offensive, Kucka is the player that can take a game by the scruff of its neck.
Weakness:
Slovakia is a team set up to defend and thus against teams of similar or inferior stature (the likes of Russia and Wales) they usually fail to break them down. Ceding possession is hence the name of the game.
Expected Lineup:
How will they fare?
It’s difficult to imagine Slovakia garnering anything more than a point from this group (my bet goes to the Wales opening game).
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Expected Finish: group stage exit (4th place)
Final Group Standings:
