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Euro 2016: Group F analysis and predictions
With Euro 2016 looming large the football world will come at a standstill as twenty four nations pit their wits against one another for, arguably, the second biggest international prize of them all. As France plays host to a plethora of world-class footballers from across the continent, UEFA’s first expanded edition promises to be an enthralling spectacle.
In the coming six-part series I will be analyzing each of the twenty four teams participating in the tournament with a holistic approach to each group. I will be shedding specific focus on the teams that I predict will make an impact, highlighting my expectations in terms of results, lineups and the star players expected to make a splash. Ladies and gents, lo and behold Group F.
Runaway Leaders:
Fernando Santos took over Portugal one game into their qualification journey and then went on an impressive run of 7 straight wins (Paolo Bento was sacked after the team’s opening game defeat). Key to that feat was an alteration in formation that liberated their star front-man.
Santos swapped Portugal’s usual 4-3-3 with a traditional 4-4-2 with emphasis on two dynamic wingers and an inside forward roaming left and right to drag away defenders; thereby creating space for a certain number 7.
Four players that were key to that game-plan are missing this summer’s showpiece (Danny,Bernardo Silva and Fabio Coentrao to injury and Tiago due to lack of match fitness) and hence Santos has had to reshuffle his pack.
Rui Patricio is the undisputed custodian; providing the assurance behind the solid yet sometimes sluggish center back pairing of Bruno Alves and Pepe (Ricardo Carvalho and Jose Fonte are also the somewhat reliable alternatives). Eliseu (who owns a ferocious shot) will cover for Fabio Coentrao as left-back and the ambidextrous Vieirinha (or Cedric Soares) will fill in on the right. Joao Moutinho and William Carvalho will provide the anchor in the middle of the field and then Joao Mario (right) and Ricardo Quaresma (or Andre Gomes on the left) will provide the width either side.Nani’s movement and dynamism will then be the perfect foil for the free-flowing Cristiano Ronaldo to wreak havoc upfront.
Strengths:
Despite the misconception, there is plenty of quality throughout this Portugal team.
Defense, for one, is particularly solid (4 clean sheets during qualification and only 5 goals conceded). The likes of Joao Mario (23 years), William Carvalho (24), Andre Gomes (22) and Renato Sanches (18) are prodigious talents in the making. The former’s intelligence, penchant for the right decisions and ability to play center or wide, stand him out as one of the key players to keep your eyes on. On the other hand, Gomes is tall, elegant, confident and a classy operator who can linkup play between midfield and attack. Carvalho is a physically imposing defensive midfielder whose main strength is breaking up play. Sanches, on the other hand, is the player to keep your eye on; a box-to-box midfielder, renowned for his strength, passing ability and composure on the ball. He’s a player who likes to dictate tempo, with his influence having earned him a regular starting role for Benfica last season at the tender age of 18. Sanches (despite him probably not starting) is the future of Portuguese football.
And then of course, there is the small matter of Cristiano Ronaldo. The talisman’s importance to the Portuguese’s cause cannot be over-stated; 56 goals in 125 appearances with 44 goals of them (and 14 assists) in 83 competitive appearances. Add this to the fact that he has scored in 5 out of his 6 starts during qualification, and Portugal have a world-beater on their hands.
Weakness:
There is an over-reliance on Ronaldo when it comes to finding the back of the net (Portugal’s goals tally in qualification stands at 11 goals with 5 of them coming from their superstar forward). Additionally, and worryingly for Santos, is the fact that every single victory during qualification was secured by just a single goal margin, which means that Portugal do find difficulty killing off games.
Age, as well, could be a problem; out of the 33 players used in qualification, 15 were the wrong side of 30. This is particularly true in defense with Pepe (33), Carvalho (38), Alves (34) and Fonte (32) having an average age of 34. Add that to the fact that Portugal are lacking an out and out center-forward (Ronaldo is no natural center-forward) and you have a team that is potentially suspect.
Expected Lineup:
How will they fare?
Portugal have been handed a relatively straightforward group but the likes of Austria and Iceland could pose some problems. Providing their talent sees them through as group winners, Portugal face a very tough second round against Group E runners-up (one of Italy or Belgium, in that order). Belgium is potentially the easier opponent but Italy are the more likely. Again this is a tie that is tough to call the shots for, but Cristiano Ronaldo could be the deciding factor. Win that and they’re through to meet Group B champions (potentially England). History favors the Portuguese in that tie but the youthful exuberance of the English could catch them by surprise. 50-50 here for me, so my call goes to England.
Expected Finish: quarter-final exit to England
The Contenders:
Beware another potential under-dog. So impressive were Austria’s stats during qualification that only England had a superior record. Unbeaten in 10 matches (28 points). A whopping 22 goals scored, conceding only 5 in the process. 6 clean sheets saw keeper Robert Almer set a national record for going 603 minutes without conceding a goal.
Marcel Koller used only 20 players during qualification (with 7 of whom featuring in all 10 games). The team’s recent failure to score against Holland (in a friendly) was the first time they had failed to score in 25 matches. This is a team that means business.
Koller was appointed in 2011 and immediately introduced a 4-2-3-1. Key players in his setup areJulian Baumgartlinger (the defensive midfielder) and Zlatko Junuzovic (ball-winning midfielder who initiates play from deep to the team’s inside forwards), Marko Arnautovic (on the left) and Martin Harnik (on the right) and David Alaba (center) the players providing the attacking threat, with Marc Janko (upfront) the goal-scoring machine that converts the chances.
Strengths:
Austria have a formidable attacking unit. David Alaba (who operates more offensively for his national team) has 4 goals and 1 assist in qualification. Marko Arnautovic (so impressive for Stoke City last season) featured in all 10 qualification games, scoring 3 goals and recording 2 assists. Marc Janko is in lethal form (7 goals and 2 assists in 9 games, scoring from 36% of his goal attempts). The latter not only scores the goals, but acts as a focal point upfront, holding up play and allowing the likes of Alabaand Junuzovic to roam forward at devastating effect.
The team’s cohesion and understanding is also a strength. Austria adopt a high pressing game and have two quality full-backs (Christian Fuchs and Florian Klein) that have a strong understanding with the team’s respective wingers (Arnautovic and Harnik respectively).
Further back, Aleksander Dragovic is a rock in the heart of defense and is linked to Europe’s elite. Put simply, there is world-class quality throughout the starting eleven.
Weakness:
It is not too far-fetched to state that Austria may struggle if key players get injured. With a team so consistent and stable, it is safe to assume that the team’s strength in depth, or lack thereof, could be their ultimate undoing.
Additionally, with the attacking responsibilities assumed by all members of the team’s midfield, the back four could sometimes be exposed (particularly if Baumgartlinger and Alaba wander too far upfield).
Expected Lineup:
How will they fare?
Given their impressive qualification form, Austria should, at worst, qualify as group runners-up (although they could potentially upset Portugal). Second round should be a matchup against Group B runners-up (likely to be Wales). On paper, Austria are the stronger team, but I see Wales prevailing due to their tireless work rate and collective strength.
Expected Finish: second round exit to Wales
Iceland enter their first ever major tournament co-managed by Lars Lagerback and Heimar Hallgrimsson. Their qualification record is indeed impressive and, rest assured, that this is not a team there to make the numbers.
Iceland beat Holland home and away during qualification, scoring 17 goals in their entire campaign and failing to find the net in just 2. Defensively they were very impressive with a measly 6 goals conceded and 6 clean sheets,
The managers used 20 players only throughout their games; which is the joint-fewest tally of any team.
Strengths:
Former Sweden coach Lars Lagerback brings a wealth of experience to the Scandinavian team’s setup. He favors a 4-4-2 with their two center midfielders key to the team’s balanced play.
Aron Gunnarsson provides the steel in the defensive sense and Gylfi Sigurdsson (so lethal for Swansea City in the Premier League last season with 11 goals and 4 assists) is the team’s star man. Not only does he assume the team’s attacking mantle, but his work ethic, set piece prowess and ferocious long shots are absolutely top drawer.
With an impressive defensive record during qualification, every player in this team contributes to the defensive setup. The team is particularly electric, as well, on the counter attack.
Weakness:
It is worrying signs that the team’s top goal-scorer (and the nation’s second highest scorer ever with 20 goals in 39 appearances) Kolbeinn Sigthorsson has had an injury-hit campaign (19 starts only in Ligue 1 for Nantes with 3 goals scored).
Additionally, the once prolific Eidur Gudjohnsen, as well, is not the same player he used to be.
Expected Lineup:
How will they fare?
Iceland could raise a few eyebrows this summer with their performances. Despite being in a tightly-balanced group, I am anticipating at least one win (over Hungry) to suffice for them to qualify as one of the best placed 3rd teams. One of Spain or Germany would then await them in the second round and this should surely be a step too far.
Expected Finish: second round exit to Spain
The Minnows:
UEFA’s decision to expand the tournament to 24 teams has allowed the likes of Hungary to come forth and stake a claim for themselves amongst the continent’s elite (even though they were once a world superpower).
Hungary enter this summer’s showpiece after a 30-year hiatus from international competition. Their record in qualification stands at 11 goals scored and 9 goals conceded (their goal difference of +2 is the worst of any teams entering the tournament). That being said, their manager Bernd Storck was handed the reigns with 4 matches remaining and is now on a run of only 2 defeats in the last 9 games.
Strengths:
The German coach employs a possession-based 4-2-3-1 with particular emphasis on set pieces. Out of the 14 goals scored during qualification and play-offs, 5 were scored from corners, one direct from a free-kick and a further 2 after free-kicks were mishandled.
Gabor Kiraly (40 years) is the oldest player in the tournament and brings a handful of experience to a team otherwise lacking in quality. Zoltan Gera is a key player as a deep-lying playmaker and the likes of Krisztian Nemeth and Balazs Dzsudzsak provide the energy out wide.
Nemanja Nikolic (who will probably make the bench) is one to specifically keep an eye on (he won the Polish league and cup double with Legia Warsaw last season and was both the league’s top scorer with 28 goals and the league’s best player).
Weakness:
There is a glaring lack of speed in the final third. Adam Szalai, the team’s main striker, has also had a season to forget (no goals scored with Hoffenheim and Hannover 96 in the Bundesliga this season).
Expected Lineup:
How will they fare?
Any point gained will be considered an achievement for this unheralded Hungary. At best, I see their organization, discipline and strong spirit upsetting just the one team.
Expected Finish: group stage exit (4th place)
Final Group Standings:
