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2024 Fantasy Football Draft: Tyreek Hill leads safest picks in Rounds 1-10

dan titus
Fantasy analyst
·6-min read

Drafting a successful fantasy football team is all about balance — striking a mix between players with league-winning potential and those with steady reliability. Let's explore the safest picks in each round of 2024 Yahoo drafts in a 10-team, 0.5 PPR format — with the mission of building a realistic roster that factors in position depth and scarcity with relatively high production floors.

Tyreek Hill is the can't-miss pick of Round 1. Christian McCaffrey scored the most fantasy points for a non-QB last year, but given his age and tread on those tires, Hill is a safer investment. Cheetah is averaging over 1,600 scrimmage yards, 110+ receptions and 10 total touchdowns over his last three seasons.

Playing in the NFL's most explosive offense has its perks, as he's seeing one of the highest target shares in the league while also being virtually unguardable. Hill finished top-three in fantasy points per game the past two seasons and there's a non-zero chance he'll end the year as the highest scorer outside of QB.

Buying into a high-octane offense is always a good idea, and Pacheco offers the perfect mix of age, opportunity and upside. The RBs and WRs going in this round are either coming off of a preseason injury (Puka Nacua, Jahmyr Gibbs), are declining with age (Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry) or have uninspiring passing offenses (Davante Adams).

If Garrett Wilson weren't tied to a soon-to-be 41-year-old coming off an Achilles injury, he might be the choice, but Pacheco is a three-down back whose receiving work is only going up. He's the safest bet of Round 2.

Josh Allen has accumulated the most fantasy points by a QB in three of the last four seasons. He's the most consistent dual-threat quarterback in the game and you can bank on 4,200 yards passing with 500 rushing yards. Add in the fact that no Bills RB will overtake his red-zone work, we could be looking at another 10+ rushing TD-type season. This is one of those "set it and forget it" picks that could secure a fantasy title.

It's time to follow the money. Mixon was given the sixth-highest annual salary at his position this offseason despite averaging just 4.0 yards per carry with a 49% success rate just last year. Still, he was top-12 among RBs in fantasy points per game and remains a three-down back with limited competition in the backfield. Joining an ascending and dangerous Texans offense is ideal for his fantasy value, so expect him to continue his streak of racking up 1,200 scrimmage yards while flirting with 10 total touchdowns.

Trey McBride and Mark Andrews are popular picks here, but I'd opt for Smith. The fourth-year pro has a safe floor of 1,000 yards and six touchdowns. Availability matters; Smith missed just one game in his first three seasons in the league. There's also the added benefit of Kellen Moore calling plays. Smith has only operated out of the slot in 19% of his snaps in his career, so more motion and freedom in a top-10 offense will lead to more volume and, ultimately, more fantasy points.

Should anything happen to A.J. Brown, you could have a WR1 on your hands.

Brandon Aiyuk's holdout initially elevated Kittle's fantasy appeal before a deal got done Thursday, but he's still rated as a top-six TE. Kittle finished last season with 65 receptions, over 1,000 yards and six tuddies. He finished in the top five in total fantasy points by a TE in the past three seasons and top two in fantasy points per game since 2022. If you miss TE in the Rounds 3-5 run, here's the perfect spot to land one without overpaying.

While Round 7 is littered with quality wideouts (George Pickens, Tank Dell and Zay Flowers), I prefer grabbing another RB to sure up the backfield — even in the dead zone. Of the choices available, White stands out as the expected RB1 of his team that projects to be a ground-and-pound, run-heavy squad. New Raiders OC Luke Getsy comes from Green Bay, and while he deployed a committee system there, no one has stepped behind White to eat into his potential workload.

White averaged 23 touches (21 carries and two receptions) and 99.3 rushing yards with 4.7 yards per carry when taking over as the full-time starter in Week 15 last season.

I'd much rather take White than a plodding Najee Harris with a bad o-line or 32-year-old Raheem Mostert coming off an outlier breakout campaign.

Round 8: Terry McLaurin - WR, Washington Commanders

Missing out on Flowers, Dell or Pickens stings a bit, but scooping up F1 is a savvy pick for Round 8, especially with so few weapons surrounding him. One-hundred and seventy-four targets were vacated with Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson's departures, leaving a considerable amount for McLaurin to take over. Despite shotty QB play, McLaurin tallied at least 77 receptions and 1,000 yards in the last four seasons. Insert Jayden Daniels into the equation, and we'll see the best version of McLaurin in years.

Rashee Rice and Calvin Ridley are the other options to consider, but the way Tampa beat writers are raving about Chris Godwin, he's the choice. Godwin shines as a dependable Round 9 selection, posting three straight 1,000-yard seasons with some positive TD regression on the horizon.

Godwin scored just three total touchdowns last year despite earning more overall targets, red-zone targets and receptions than Mike Evans. Feel free to pass on the defenses, kickers and late-round TEs in this round because you can select them later anyway.

Yahoo Fantasy contributor Tera Roberts has been leading the Daniels hype train and I've jumped aboard. He's one of the few dual-threat QBs available late in drafts, so if you're looking for a QB with top-tier upside or someone to hedge against an earlier QB selection, this rookie has instant breakout potential. The skill positions available in this round aren't exciting, either. There are a couple of injured RBs (Nick Chubb, Jaylen Warren), Devin Singletary and Brian Robinson Jr.

Robinson Jr. is at least getting talked up in the preseason; but call me crazy — I don't think Austin Ekeler is washed and he'll be more relevant than the coaching staff is letting on. Rome Odunze is rising too, but with an undetermined target distribution and a rookie quarterback, it could take time for Odunze to overtake the likes of DJ Moore or Keenan Allen in the Bears' crowded WR room.