Arsenal refereeing leniency claims crumble after further scrutiny vindicating fan fury

There has naturally been plenty of scrutiny surrounding Arsenal and the refereeing controversies which have seen the club receive three red cards in the opening eight league games of the season. Declan Rice, Leandro Trossard and William Saliba have all been sent off with the former pair both getting second yellows for delaying the restart.

Yet, the outrage has sparked pushback from certain sections of the football sphere. talkSPORT have taken the time to look into the matter using Opta data and made a claim that Arsenal can have no such complaints.

Ryon Scott-Douglas, spokesperson for talkSPORT BET, said: "A lot has been made of referees’ treatment of Arsenal this season, but it seems the officials are taking their side this season, whilst their title rivals see themselves punished more than any other team in the league."

This stems from an interpretation of a data set which looks specifically at yellow cards per number of fouls. Arsenal claimed to receive a booking for every 5.39 fouls this season, the highest figure in the league.

Whereas clubs like Chelsea and Manchester City are receiving bookings more often in relation to foul frequency with 2.93 and 2.83 respectively. So, there we have it, nothing to see here, right?

Well, not really. For starters, Arsenal have committed 97 fouls this season and received 22 yellow cards.

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The above value of 5.39 fouls per yellow only took into account 18 yellow cards. Arsenal have actually received four more yellows as it became apparent the claim did not include the two received by Rice against Brighton and two received by Trossard at City, in Premier League numbers these become red cards but were of course given as yellow cards on the field.

This error is repeated across all clubs. This means that the incorrect value of one yellow per 5.39 fouls drops in fact to 4.41, bringing it below Tottenham’s score - therefore the Gunners do not have the most lenience in the league it turns out after all if this is the desired metric to support the statement.

The data used is also just for this season too and the stat in itself, even when it counts the actual number of yellow cards received, lacks all context. Yellow cards can be received for all manner of reasons and with Arsenal going down to ten men in nearly half of league games, this invites more pressure and will subsequently see the likelihood of more tackles and fouls rack up.

City are known for receiving few yellow cards with their typical possessional dominance of games. When they do, it is for the tactical fouls that always lead to a booking.

Rodri speaking to ESPN in 2019 explained the things he was learning under Pep Guardiola. Notice the particular mention to the specific type of fouls that the Manchester City side are actively teaching.

"I am learning new things, how to go, when to stay, when I have to do a tactical foul, when I have to jump. It's good for me to learn these things. And for the team it's good because we need those offensive players to be able to play our game."

Therefore, after correcting the errors in the data set and looking at the wider context, a new conclusion can be created that using this particular metric, even with the true figures, doesn’t show a dramatic gap between the sides and the context explains the difference which does exist.

Further analysis of net VAR calls have also shown that Arsenal have seen decisions overturned go against the club seven times more than in favour. Whereas compared to the likes of Liverpool, who have seen three more go in their favour than against and Manchester City have had five more go in their favour, does this further context again give those keen to highlight Arsenal's position in these scenarios? It certainly does.