Arsenal right to snub Victor Osimhen after Kai Havertz comparison and £55.6m preference
The calls for Arsenal to sign a striker this summer are perhaps the most contentious transfer desires when looking at the wider context of the club. In short, do I think Arsenal should sign a centre-forward? Yes, I do.
However, it is far more complicated than the idea of spending upwards of £100million on the likes of Victor Osimhen for example. Were Alexander Isak a viable and realistic option, I would have far fewer concerns as I see the Swede as the perfect option but sadly there seems little chance of that deal happening.
Outside of Isak, options have their drawbacks. The aforementioned Osimhen is often a name which fans go to and speak of as a guaranteed Declan Rice-style banker of a signing and even use phrases like “20-goal-plus-a-season-striker” when referencing the Nigerian international.
However, it may surprise some to learn that Osimhen has managed to score 20 league goals or more in just a single campaign, 2022/23 and then fell 11 goals short of this tally last season – although he did play eight games less through injury and African Cup of Nations participation.
Arsenal’s current starting centre-forward Kai Havertz only established himself in the role in the new year, playing more than two-thirds of his league games as a midfielder, but he finished the season with just two league goals less than Osimhen. The response here might be that well Osimhen is a more clinical finisher than Havertz and that’s why he’s worth the £100million-plus price tag.
Yet, the numbers fail to support this. Havertz finished the season with a goal-per-shot ratio of 0.18, better than Osimhen’s 0.14. What about his 31-league-goal season? This only matched the German’s, equalling 0.18 goals per shot.
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Osimhen, even during his most prolific season, is no more clinical than Havertz at this stage. In fact, when looking at non-penalty xG which takes into account the quality of chances both players are having the margins are still exceptionally fine.
Havertz’s 12 non-penalty goals exceeded his npxG of 11.6 and in the same season, Osimhen’s 12 non-penalty goals exceeded his npxG of 11.4 by slightly more. Is 0.2 worth spending another £100million-plus? I am not so sure.
It is also worth pointing out that Havertz also provides much better collaborative qualities to the team and his 3.62 shot-creating actions per 90 beat Osimhen in 2022/23 (2.8) and 2023/24 (2.48).
This is why looking at 20-year-old Benjamin Sesko who would cost half the price, with a £55.6million release clause, is so much more appealing than someone like Osimhen. The amount of potential the Slovenian has and the freedom to gradually integrate him into the side to compete with Havertz is a much more appealing scenario.
Furthermore, his numbers for RB Leipzig completely destroy Havertz and Osimhen. His goal-per-shot ratio is more than double the Nigerian’s for last season at 0.3. He outperformed his npxG of 7.7 to score 14 goals.
If Arsenal fans want clinical then Sesko is showing all the talent to justify a move. These comparisons show why it is worth looking into the players in much greater detail than seeing a name and thinking it guarantees goals and clinical finishing.
It is also worth pointing out that despite the clamour for a striker, Arsenal managed to score more goals than in any previous Premier League season, secured more wins than the Invincibles in 2003/04 and did so with their now-established centre-forward playing out of the position for the majority of the campaign. Arsenal can improve the depth of the role but it is not imperative.